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On May 25th, Japanese financial regulators are urging domestic listed companies to allocate more of their cash reserves to long-term business investments, rather than rewarding shareholders through share buybacks and increased dividends. Tatsufumi Shibat, a senior official at the Financial Services Agency, stated in an interview that, in addition to cash, executives should consider using cross-shareholdings and real estate assets to promote growth. He pointed out that regardless of where Japanese companies are on their growth curve, they tend to prioritize shareholder returns. "I dont think investors would make that demand of companies in a rapid growth phase," he said in the interview. Shifting the vast wealth held by businesses and households to fund future expansion is one of the core pillars of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis efforts to revitalize the Japanese economy. She has long criticized the cash reserves on corporate balance sheets.On May 25th, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was visiting India, told the media on the 24th that a draft agreement between the US and Iran had gained the support of several Middle Eastern countries. Rubio said that seven to eight countries in the region currently support the draft, and the US is prepared to continue pushing it forward. Rubio also stated that nuclear negotiations are highly specialized, and "its impossible to settle a nuclear matter in 72 hours by writing it on the back of a napkin," but President Trumps commitment to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons should not be questioned. Earlier that day, Trump posted on social media that negotiations with Iran were "going in an orderly and constructive manner," and that he had informed US representatives that there was no need to rush into an agreement with Iran.On May 25th, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is likely to raise its inflation outlook when policymakers meet next month. She said on Sunday that the March forecast of 2.6% inflation this year "may be revised," adding that the situation "has changed" since then. Her comments confirm recent signals from policymakers, including Governing Council member Demarco. Demarco, in an interview, suggested that the forecast, released shortly after the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq conflict, might have been overly optimistic. Lagarde declined to elaborate on whether such a revision would lead to a rate hike by the ECB on June 11th. "The current situation is so uncertain that we must examine all available data, assess how the economy will develop in the coming quarters, determine whether action is needed, and what the medium-term impact will be," she said. "Our target is 2% in the medium term."On May 25th, Kevin Hassett, US President Trumps chief economic advisor, stated that he believes the eventual drop in oil prices will create room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once an agreement is reached, energy prices will plummet," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have ample room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized his respect for the Feds independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed chairman last Friday. While the surge in US fuel prices caused by Irans closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republicans in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that accelerating inflation is primarily driven by energy prices. "If you look at the recent data reports, energy prices are absolutely worrying, but core prices have hardly changed," he said. "I think once we see energy prices fall, you might actually see negative inflation because of the drop in energy prices."European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: The current situation is too uncertain to make a commitment on interest rates; inflation forecasts may be revised in June, at which time the ECB will assess the economic situation by taking all data into account.

GBP/USD seeks to regain 1.2300 as higher UK CPI strengthens the case for a rate hike by the Bank of England and the USD retreats

Alina Haynes

Mar 23, 2023 15:00

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During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair attempts to reclaim the resistance level at 1.2300. Following a vertical correction, the Cable has recovered to near 1.2260 as the market anticipates that the absence of hawkish interest rate guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell while addressing the economy at the monetary policy meeting indicates that the Fed is close to ending its policy-tightening spell.

 

S&P500 futures have generated some gains in the Asian session following a decline on Wednesday as a result of Fed Powell's confirmation that the fight against intractable U.S. inflation will continue. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has ruled out rate cuts in 2023, citing the difficulty of controlling inflation. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement that the government "does not plan to insure all uninsured bank deposits" heightened fears of a banking sector collapse.

 

Following a recovery move, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated on expectations that additional credit tightening to protect banking institutions will reduce overall demand, economic activity, and inflation. In the interim, the demand for US government bonds has increased as a result of expectations that US Janet Yellen will end further policy restrictions and reduce support for all bank deposits.

 

On the front of the United Kingdom, the Pound Sterling is likely to maintain its strength as the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to raise rates for the eleventh consecutive time. Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) in response to rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, as well as rising energy costs, which have contributed to inflation in the United Kingdom.

 

In the midst of global banking turmoil, the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision will be difficult, as policymakers were divided over whether to raise rates further or maintain them at their present level.