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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: The escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend put pressure on London spot gold in early trading on Monday. Looking back at last week, gold prices both domestically and internationally experienced increased volatility, continuing their weekly decline. Spot gold fell 1.51% for the week, while the Shanghai Gold Futures contract fell 1.48%. Geopolitically, a new round of conflict erupted between the US and Iran. With both sides intensifying their attacks, the risk of unrestricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has increased again. Rising oil prices and inflation expectations have contributed to short-term weakness in gold prices. 1. Macroeconomic Overview: Disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy communication methods are surfacing. Governor Waller stated that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool, contrasting with Warshs stance. Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on July 15th. This hearing will focus on the Feds semi-annual monetary policy report submitted to Congress, potentially providing some guidance on interest rates and the direction of monetary policy. 2. The precious metals market will face a double test with Warshs congressional debut and CPI data releases. On July 14th, the US June CPI will be released on the same day as Warshs House hearing, followed by the PPI data release on the 15th, after which Warsh will testify before the Senate. The resonance between inflation data and policy signals will influence precious metal price movements. With the US and Iran entering a second round of conflict, the market initially returned to trading based on rising inflation and interest rate expectations. However, judging from the weekly performance of oil and gold prices, the sustainability of this conflict is not optimistic. Furthermore, there were no further positive factors to drive a significant rebound in gold prices; the overall trend remains weak and corrective. This indicates that the current bottoming-out range for gold is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policies repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, requiring continued caution.US President Trump: 59% approval rating. Inflation is declining, and oil and gas prices are also falling.July 13th - To continue preparations for Typhoon Bavi, the 9th typhoon of the year, the Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters in Liaoning Province has activated a Level II emergency response for flood control across the city. Based on the announcement issued on July 12th, the Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has decided to add the following emergency evacuation measures: All government agencies and enterprises (except those ensuring basic urban operations) should, in principle, work from home, minimize outings, and ensure safety. The Shenyang Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters has organized 12 departments, including emergency management, public security, meteorology, water resources, urban construction, urban management law enforcement, natural resources, agriculture and rural affairs, fire protection, and power supply, to jointly command and coordinate the prevention and response to heavy rainfall. More than 3,500 flood control personnel at the city, district/county, township (street), and village (community) levels are all on duty and continuously carrying out emergency rescue and drainage work.As of 8:30 on July 13, 2026, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil and other commodities saw the largest fluctuations. A chart reviews the overnight price changes in the international market and their corresponding theoretical mappings in the domestic market.July 13 - According to the China State Railway Group, in the first half of this year, the national railway system transported a total of 2.348 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, setting a new record for the same period.

GBP/USD seeks to regain 1.2300 as higher UK CPI strengthens the case for a rate hike by the Bank of England and the USD retreats

Alina Haynes

Mar 23, 2023 15:00

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During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair attempts to reclaim the resistance level at 1.2300. Following a vertical correction, the Cable has recovered to near 1.2260 as the market anticipates that the absence of hawkish interest rate guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell while addressing the economy at the monetary policy meeting indicates that the Fed is close to ending its policy-tightening spell.

 

S&P500 futures have generated some gains in the Asian session following a decline on Wednesday as a result of Fed Powell's confirmation that the fight against intractable U.S. inflation will continue. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has ruled out rate cuts in 2023, citing the difficulty of controlling inflation. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement that the government "does not plan to insure all uninsured bank deposits" heightened fears of a banking sector collapse.

 

Following a recovery move, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated on expectations that additional credit tightening to protect banking institutions will reduce overall demand, economic activity, and inflation. In the interim, the demand for US government bonds has increased as a result of expectations that US Janet Yellen will end further policy restrictions and reduce support for all bank deposits.

 

On the front of the United Kingdom, the Pound Sterling is likely to maintain its strength as the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to raise rates for the eleventh consecutive time. Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) in response to rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, as well as rising energy costs, which have contributed to inflation in the United Kingdom.

 

In the midst of global banking turmoil, the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision will be difficult, as policymakers were divided over whether to raise rates further or maintain them at their present level.


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