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Real-time News
June 25th, Futures News: PTA prices fell sharply today, mainly due to declining crude oil prices. As more oil is shipped out of the Persian Gulf, crude oil futures fell to their lowest level since the outbreak of the US-Iran conflict. WTI crude oil fell below $70 intraday for the first time since March 2nd, and Brent crude oil hit its lowest level since the conflict began on February 28th. Lower costs increased fears of further price declines in the PTA market, weakening market sentiment. Downstream polyester operating rates are about 12 percentage points lower than the same period last year, making a recovery in demand unlikely. The occasional surge in polyester filament production and sales has had limited impact on the market. The negative impact of lower costs dominates the market, and PTA prices are expected to decline in the short term.June 25th - Following the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, an increasing number of ships have resumed publicly disclosing their navigation routes and destinations. An LNG carrier belonging to Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has also begun emitting signals in the Persian Gulf. Ship tracking data shows that after nearly two weeks of inactivity, the ADNOC LNG carrier "Umm Al Ashtan" appeared in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, near the companys LNG export facility on Das Island. This indicates that the ship recently transited the Strait of Hormuz without its transponder turned off. Recently, an increasing number of ships have turned on their transponders when entering and leaving the Persian Gulf, reflecting an improving security situation around the Strait of Hormuz. While some ships have begun to publicly disclose their complete voyages in and out of the Persian Gulf, some still choose to transit the Strait of Hormuz without their signals. However, the resumption of signal transmission within the Persian Gulf is itself a change. For the past few months, ADNOC ships had avoided doing so for security reasons. Following the signing of the interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, more LNG carriers have been able to pass freely. Since Monday, at least six empty oil tankers have transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, as Qatar and the UAE expand their LNG exports. Most of these vessels signaled their passage through the strait.On June 25th, Westpac stated that it expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to be less likely to raise interest rates as sharply as initially anticipated. This is because an early resolution to the Iranian conflict implies a weaker inflation outlook and an earlier economic recovery. Westpac anticipates the RBNZ will begin raising rates in September, but will only raise them once more for the remainder of the year. This means the official cash rate will peak at 4.0% by the end of 2027, before falling back to a neutral level of 3.75% by the end of 2028. Previously, Westpac had predicted the rate could reach as high as 4.25%. Westpac wrote, "Our core view suggests that the RBNZ will raise rates one less time this year than our most recent forecast, but one more time than pre-conflict projections."On June 25th, shortly after 6:00 AM Beijing time, Venezuela was struck by a series of earthquakes exceeding magnitude 7, followed by a magnitude 7.2 earthquake off the coast of northeastern Japan. Meanwhile, reports from the United States indicated that a magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck California on the same day. Are these earthquakes related? Lucy Jones, a senior seismologist at Caltech, stated that, in short, they are not. Jones believes that these earthquakes occurred on different faults and plate boundaries, meaning that one earthquake did not trigger another. The timing of the earthquakes may be coincidental, but the location is not—each earthquake occurred at a well-known active plate boundary, where stress has accumulated over decades or even centuries. In these regions, large earthquakes are an expected part of the natural cycle, although the exact timing cannot currently be accurately predicted.The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 1.5 basis points to 3.55%.
