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Market news: Nvidia partner GMI Cloud is seeking a $635 million GPU mortgage loan.BP (BP.N) said on Tuesday that it expects its oil trading business to continue growing in the second quarter, but upstream oil and gas production will be lower than in the first quarter. The company is still navigating the impact of market volatility as the conflict in Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets. The company said it expects its oil trading business to perform slightly better in the second quarter than in the first quarter (January to March). The company expects upstream production in the second quarter to be between 2.17 million and 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the first quarter. The decline in upstream production is mainly due to seasonal maintenance and disruptions in the Middle East.July 14th - With the summer vacation approaching, cross-border travel in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is booming, and passenger traffic at the Gongbei Port, which is connected to Macao by land, continues to increase. Since July, the Gongbei Port has seen an average of over 310,000 inbound and outbound passengers per day. According to Gongbei Customs, in the first half of this year, the total number of inbound and outbound passengers at the Gongbei Port exceeded 64 million, a 6% increase compared to the same period last year, with a peak daily passenger flow of 460,000.Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.35%, German DAX futures fell 0.35%, and UK FTSE futures fell 0.28%.1. Sudden Geopolitical Military Conflict: Serious clashes erupted in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. According to CCTV and other media reports, two UAE oil tankers were attacked by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern channel of the strait (resulting in one death and eight injuries); the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the attack and destruction of two foreign oil tankers that ignored warnings. Simultaneously, the US Central Command announced it would reinstate the blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 15th. 2. Macroeconomic Policy and Concerns about Soaring Transportation Costs: Trump stated he would impose a 20% protection fee on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, estimated this could increase the cost of transporting oil through the strait by another $16 per barrel (to $26), potentially increasing the overall cost of a large oil tanker by over $30 million. 3. Weakening Spot Prices: The spot market is entering a downward trend, shifting from a period of high demand to a lower price. The latest SCFIS European line is 3656.38 points, slightly lower than expected. According to Haitong Futures statistics, the market average for Late July is approximately $5130 USD for a container load (TCL). It is expected that the OA and PA alliances still have room to follow Maersks $4800 USD adjustment for 30-week TCL openings, and the average could potentially fall below $5000 USD. 4. Haitong Futures view: The EC main contract is currently betting on the actual downward slope after freight rates peak. The previously anticipated low capacity in the 31-week period might have altered the current linear extrapolation of the downward freight rate path, but the current adjustment after the empty schedule has smoothed the decline. The 08 contract valuation has already largely priced in the subsequent decline; observe whether there is a possibility of a gradual decline. There is a lack of significant marginal improvement drivers in the short term. 5. Guangfa Futures view: Geopolitical disturbances have resurfaced, and short-term downward momentum is nearing exhaustion. For longer-term contracts, the expectation of the resumption of Red Sea shipping, coupled with the uncertainty of the US-Iran conflict, results in greater volatility, but there is currently no clear trend. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market information from Haitong Futures, Guotou Futures, etc., and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.)

GBP/USD seeks to regain 1.2300 as higher UK CPI strengthens the case for a rate hike by the Bank of England and the USD retreats

Alina Haynes

Mar 23, 2023 15:00

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During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair attempts to reclaim the resistance level at 1.2300. Following a vertical correction, the Cable has recovered to near 1.2260 as the market anticipates that the absence of hawkish interest rate guidance from Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell while addressing the economy at the monetary policy meeting indicates that the Fed is close to ending its policy-tightening spell.

 

S&P500 futures have generated some gains in the Asian session following a decline on Wednesday as a result of Fed Powell's confirmation that the fight against intractable U.S. inflation will continue. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell has ruled out rate cuts in 2023, citing the difficulty of controlling inflation. In addition, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's statement that the government "does not plan to insure all uninsured bank deposits" heightened fears of a banking sector collapse.

 

Following a recovery move, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has retreated on expectations that additional credit tightening to protect banking institutions will reduce overall demand, economic activity, and inflation. In the interim, the demand for US government bonds has increased as a result of expectations that US Janet Yellen will end further policy restrictions and reduce support for all bank deposits.

 

On the front of the United Kingdom, the Pound Sterling is likely to maintain its strength as the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to raise rates for the eleventh consecutive time. Governor Andrew Bailey of the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bp) in response to rising food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, as well as rising energy costs, which have contributed to inflation in the United Kingdom.

 

In the midst of global banking turmoil, the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision will be difficult, as policymakers were divided over whether to raise rates further or maintain them at their present level.