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May 25th - Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell to two-week lows in early Asian trading on Monday, as markets were optimistic that the US and Iran were close to reaching a peace agreement, despite remaining differences on key issues including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Trump said on Saturday that Washington and Iran had "fundamentally agreed" a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, disagreements remain on several thorny issues, and Trump said on Sunday that he had told his representatives not to rush into any agreement with Iran. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee in Sydney, said, "While there are still many uncertainties and risks surrounding the peace agreement and the Strait of Hormuz, the glimmer of hope will provide some relief to oil prices in the short term." However, analysts expect it will take months for oil shipments through the strait to return to normal and for damaged oil and gas facilities to be repaired.On May 25, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced that it will hold a regular press conference at 10:00 a.m. on May 27, 2026, in the press conference hall of the Taiwan Affairs Office, where the spokesperson will answer questions from reporters on recent cross-strait hot issues.U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rose 12 basis points, and 30-year Treasury futures rose 17 basis points.1. According to Ukrainian media citing an Air Force spokesperson, Russia launched a Hazel missile at the Kyiv region of Ukraine. 2. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure, the Russian military used multiple types of missiles, including Hazel, Iskander, Kinzhal, and Zircon, as well as attack drones, to strike Ukrainian military targets, excluding civilian infrastructure. 3. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russia used 600 drones and 90 missiles to attack Ukraine. 4. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that the recent Russian attacks have injured at least 83 people, with others killed. 5. Leaders of several European countries condemned Russias use of the Hazel missile against Ukraine. 6. The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) stated that its Alpha Special Operations Center attacked a fuel pumping station in Vladimir Oblast, Russia. 7. A Russian diplomat stated that recommendations have been drafted regarding the 27-point plan proposed by the US for resolving the Ukrainian crisis and are ready to be submitted. 8. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Karas: Next week, EU foreign ministers will discuss how to increase international pressure on Russia.The Shenzhou-23 astronaut crew successfully entered the "Tiangong" space station, marking the eighth "space reunion" of Chinese astronauts.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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