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On April 27th, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made it clear that they value maintaining flexibility in policy options ahead of this weeks policy decision. The market has reacted accordingly, lowering its rate hike expectations to approximately 20%. However, this probability is expected to rise to around 63% by the June meeting. Looking at the full year, traders are currently pricing in a rate hike of approximately 58 basis points, roughly equivalent to two subsequent 25 basis point hikes, which is Goldman Sachs current baseline scenario. Goldman Sachs believes that given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, the ECB is unlikely to take action this week, as policymakers want to preserve policy space while assessing the second-round effects of inflation. The press conference is expected to maintain the tone of recent communications, with ECB President Lagarde potentially stating that the Governing Council will monitor the second-round effects and is prepared to act to ensure inflation returns to 2% in the medium term. Regarding the future policy path, Goldman Sachs expects the ECB to implement two 25 basis point rate hikes in the coming months, the first in June, followed by a move to raise the deposit rate to 2.50% in September.On April 27th, at the 2026 Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, Unisoc and ADAYO jointly released a new generation AI cockpit platform equipped with the A8880 chip, which achieves a significant leap in CPU, GPU computing power and graphics rendering capabilities.On April 27th, Commerzbank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen stated in a report that market expectations for interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the European Central Bank appear excessive ahead of meetings later this week, thus putting the pound and euro at risk. LSEG data shows that money market pricing indicates the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday but will raise them twice before the end of the year. "We are particularly skeptical of market expectations regarding the ECB and the Bank of England," Nguyen said. She stated that there is considerable room for these expectations to be reassessed, and therefore, exchange rates could experience significant volatility.On April 27th, a Counterpoint Research report showed that global smartphone SoC shipments declined by 8% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026. The ongoing memory shortage is not only impacting new product development for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and SoC suppliers, but also prompting them to optimize their product portfolios. The high-end smartphone market performed relatively steadily, with most of the cost increases already passed on to end consumers. Meanwhile, the entry-level market is gradually adopting lower-cost, older chipsets to maintain price competitiveness. Qualcomm and MediaTek both experienced double-digit declines in shipments. In contrast, Apple, Samsung, Google, and Unisoc achieved positive growth. Apple, Samsung, and Google benefited from their supply chain integration capabilities, mitigating the impact of the current memory shortage to some extent.On April 27, the draft revision of the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises was submitted to the 22nd session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Peoples Congress for its first review. The revision adheres to the leadership of the Party, a problem-oriented approach, the principle of balancing development and security, and the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability. The draft revises 71 articles and adds 32 new articles, comprising nine chapters and 109 articles, comprehensively revising the existing law. Major revisions include improving the modern enterprise system with Chinese characteristics, improving the management and supervision system for state-owned assets of enterprises, clarifying the principle of classified management, and improving the management system for state-owned capital gains. The Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises stipulates the basic system for the management and supervision of state-owned assets of enterprises in my country. Since its implementation on May 1, 2009, it has provided strong legal protection for the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, my countrys development environment faces profound and complex changes. Revising and improving the Law on State-Owned Assets of Enterprises, using legislation to guide and guarantee the reform and development of state-owned assets and enterprises, and strengthening the rule of law in the management and supervision of state-owned assets, is of great significance for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the state-owned economy.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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