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Federal Reserve Statement: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unanimously elected Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the FOMC.On May 23, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulcie Gabbard announced on social media on May 22 that she had submitted her resignation to President Trump that day to care for her husband, who is battling cancer. U.S. media reports indicate that Gabbard was effectively "forced out" by the White House. In her resignation letter, Gabbard stated that her husband had recently been diagnosed with "an extremely rare form of bone cancer," and her resignation would take effect on June 30. Trump announced on social media that day that Deputy Director of National Intelligence Aaron Lucas would serve as acting Director of National Intelligence. According to multiple U.S. media reports, Gabbard had been marginalized within the White Houses national security decision-making system, and in recent months, Trump had expressed considerable dissatisfaction with her and considered replacements. Gabbard has long opposed U.S. government military intervention abroad and disagreed with Trump on the Iranian nuclear issue. After the U.S. and Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran in late February, she testified before Congress that Iran had not attempted to rebuild its nuclear program and refused to confirm that Iran posed an imminent threat as the U.S. claimed.According to the Wall Street Journal, sources say the United States has suspended visa issuance to people who have visited Ebola-affected areas. This policy applies to individuals planning to travel to the United States within 21 days in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, or Uganda.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending May 19, speculators reduced their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures by 41,775 contracts to 1,560,837 contracts; increased their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 66,885 contracts to 848,052 contracts; increased their net short positions in CBOT U.S. ultra-long-term Treasury futures by 15,470 contracts to 254,464 contracts; and reduced their net short positions in CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures by 11,629 contracts to 1,350,516 contracts.According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in the week ending May 19, crude oil speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil by 15,017 contracts, reaching 110,348 contracts.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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