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August 4th - Recently, the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) launched a special campaign called "Clean Up the Online Environment and Rectify Malicious Hype of Enterprise-Related Information." Based on letters from relevant departments and local cyberspace administrations, a number of illegal and irregular accounts that infringe upon the legitimate online rights and interests of enterprises and entrepreneurs will be dealt with severely.According to JLC Network Technology, several airlines will lower domestic fuel surcharges starting from midnight on August 5th, marking the third reduction this year. After the adjustment, adult passengers will be charged 40 yuan for flights of 800 kilometers or less, and 70 yuan for flights over 800 kilometers, a decrease of 10 yuan and 30 yuan respectively compared to before the adjustment. 1. This fee has fluctuated throughout the year: it remained low in the first quarter (10 yuan for flights under 800 kilometers, 20 yuan for flights over 800 kilometers); due to geopolitical conflicts, international crude oil and jet fuel prices rose, leading to consecutive increases in April and May, peaking in May (90 yuan/170 yuan); subsequently, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices, it decreased twice in June and July, finally seeing a third consecutive drop on August 5th. 2. Domestic fuel surcharges are linked to aviation kerosene prices and are determined by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration of China based on international oil prices, which airlines then implement. Currently, it is still summer vacation, and long-distance travel is increasing; this reduction will slightly lower the cost of long-distance air travel for the public.On August 4th, Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Minoru Jonouchi stated that the cost increases caused by the Middle East conflict have so far had a limited impact on consumer prices, and offered a relatively optimistic assessment of inflation risks. Jonouchi said, "The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-on-year in June, indicating that the rate of price increases remains relatively moderate." He made these remarks in response to the Bank of Japans warning last week regarding the "increased risk of inflation exceeding expectations." However, Jonouchi added, "We do need to remain vigilant, as costs may gradually be passed on to food and other consumer goods prices from this summer to autumn."The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.4 earthquake occurred at 10:25 a.m. on August 4 in Gao County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province (28.53 degrees north latitude, 104.67 degrees east longitude), with a focal depth of 5 kilometers.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 10:25 AM on August 4th near Gao County, Yibin City, Sichuan Province (28.53°N, 104.67°E). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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