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September 20th - According to BHP Billitons official WeChat account, the 15th China International Steel Conference, hosted by the China Iron and Steel Association and the Metallurgical Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, was held in Shanghai from September 19th to 20th. In his keynote speech, BHP Billiton CEO Brandon Craig pointed out that Chinas continued investment in advanced manufacturing, renewable energy, and the digital economy will create new growth momentum and resource demand. Steel will remain a crucial pillar of economic development and industrial competitiveness, while the importance of copper will continue to rise. Craig stated that in the iron ore sector, BHP Billiton expects to invest over US$10 billion in its iron ore business over the next five years to maintain and enhance production capacity, develop high-quality ore bodies, and upgrade port and railway infrastructure; it will also fully support Western Australias iron ore production target of 305 million tons per year by fiscal year 2028. Regarding copper, BHP Billiton plans to continue expanding its copper production capacity over the next decade to support global electrification, energy transition, and digital infrastructure development.On September 20th, the German Institute for Economic Research released its autumn economic forecast, significantly raising its 2026 economic growth forecast for Germany from 0.4% to 1.2%. The institute stated that the upward revision was mainly due to strong economic growth in the first half of this year. However, the institute predicts that "growth momentum will slow again in the second half of 2026." This is attributed to the expiration of special export incentives, high energy prices suppressing private consumption, and the continued crisis in the construction industry, primarily driven by government investment. The institute projects German economic growth to be slightly below 1% in 2027. The institute also warned that the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Middle East situation, international trade conflicts, and declining water levels in major European rivers could all negatively impact the German economy. Furthermore, influenced by rising energy prices, the institute predicts that Germanys inflation rate in 2026 will be slightly above 2.5%, while consumption is expected to grow by only 0.3%.September 20 - According to the website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, the Tangshan Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning that live-fire shooting activities will be conducted in parts of the Bohai Sea from 00:00 on September 21 to 24:00 on September 24, and entry is prohibited.On September 20, local time, the Central Command of Irans Hatem Anbia issued a statement saying that intelligence indicated the United States, in an attempt to cover up its failures and gain benefits from the war, decided, with the tacit approval of certain Middle Eastern countries, to take hostile action against Iran again after a joint meeting in a European country. The statement warned that if the United States makes any mistakes against Iran, all its bases and interests in the region will suffer sustained, effective, and devastating blows without reservation. The statement also indicated that Iran warned regional countries that if they continue to pursue a "double-dealing policy" towards Iran and cooperate with its enemies, they will be considered accomplices; at that point, they will no longer be able to expect restraint or tolerance from the Iranian armed forces.On September 20th, local time, explosions were heard in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. Kyiv Mayor Viktor Klitschko reported that Russian military drones were attacking the city, and Kyivs air defense system was operational. There has been no response from Russia at this time.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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