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According to the latest data from the Fujairah Oil Industrial Zone in the UAE, as of the week ending January 5, 2026, total refined product inventories at the port of Fujairah were 18.966 million barrels, an increase of 272,000 barrels from the previous week, representing a 15% increase. Specifically, light distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 1.004 million barrels, or 15%, to 7.665 million barrels, a new high in eight weeks; middle distillate fuel oil inventories increased by 278,000 barrels, or 13%, to 2.402 million barrels, the first increase in four weeks; and heavy residual fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels, or 10%, to 8.899 million barrels, the lowest level in two months.On January 7th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported the following data on energy and chemical warehouse receipts and changes: 1. Pulp futures warehouse receipts: 123,506 tons, an increase of 4,452 tons compared to the previous trading day; 2. Pulp futures mill warehouse receipts: 12,000 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 3. Offset paper futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 4. Offset paper futures mill warehouse receipts: 1,960 tons, an increase of 760 tons compared to the previous trading day; 5. Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. 6. Petroleum asphalt futures warehouse receipts totaled 14,250 tons, an increase of 2,990 tons compared to the previous trading day; 7. Petroleum asphalt futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 16,660 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 8. Medium-sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 3,464,000 barrels, unchanged from the previous trading day; 9. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures warehouse receipts totaled 44,910 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day; 10. Low-sulfur fuel oil futures factory warehouse receipts totaled 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day.As of 3:00 PM Beijing time, spot platinum fell 6.73% to $2,279 per ounce, and spot palladium fell 4.73% to $1,732 per ounce.Colombia: 1. Resource Value: Colombia possesses medium-sized oil resources in Latin America, and is rich in coal and gold mineral resources. 2. Trumps Statement: Trump threatened Colombian President Petro, accusing him of being a drug addict and saying he wouldnt last long profiting from drug trafficking. When asked if this meant the US would take military action against Colombia, Trump said, "That sounds like a good idea." Cuba: 1. Resource Value: Cuba has an important geographical location, controlling access to the Caribbean Sea, and is only 150 kilometers from Florida. In addition, the country has relatively abundant nickel and cobalt resources, as well as potential offshore oil and gas resources. 2. Trumps Statement: Previously, at a press conference regarding military action against Venezuela, Trump hinted that Cuba might be discussed as part of a broader US policy in the region. He later stated that the US did not need to take any military action against Cuba, and that Cuba would fall into enemy hands. Furthermore, Cuba is the only country in Americas "backyard" that has remained largely uncontrolled since the Cold War. Greenland 1. Resource Value: Greenland is rich in rare earth elements, uranium, zinc, nickel, iron, and potential oil and gas resources. Furthermore, due to its strategic location controlling Arctic shipping routes and situated along the core path of US-Russian nuclear deterrence, coupled with the US deployment of Thule Air Base there, it has become an irreplaceable key pivot in the US Arctic and nuclear strategy. 2. Trumps Statement: The White House stated that Trump does not rule out using military force to acquire Greenland. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Rubio told lawmakers that the governments recent threats regarding Greenland do not signify an impending "invasion," but rather aim to purchase the island from Denmark. Panama 1. Resource Value: The Panama Canal is Trumps "most valued" resource. It is crucial for the global mobilization of US troops, energy transportation, and food trade. It is also one of the worlds most important shipping chokepoints. 2. Trumps Statement: Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly threatened to "regain control of the Panama Canal." In March 2025, reports surfaced that the White House instructed the US military to develop a plan for stationing troops in Panama in order to reclaim the canal. Historically, the United States effectively controlled the Panama Canal for decades. Mexico: 1. Resource Value: Mexico possesses abundant mineral resources such as oil, silver, and copper, and is one of the worlds major automobile manufacturing bases, crucial to the US auto market. 2. Trumps Stance: Trumps tone was relatively moderate when discussing the Mexican issue. He stated that Mexico must rectify itself because drugs are flooding in through Mexico; he repeatedly proposed to the Mexican president that the US military intervene to "clean up" the local situation, but this was publicly rejected. Iran: 1. Resource Value: Iran has one of the worlds largest oil reserves and one of the worlds second-largest natural gas reserves. Furthermore, Iran possesses actual "military deterrence and interference capabilities" over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital "lifeline" and key chokepoint for global energy trade. 2. Trumps Stance: After Venezuelan President Maduro was captured, Trump, holding a hat with the words "Make Iran Great Again," posed for a photo with US Senator and foreign policy hawk Graham, exacerbating concerns about a possible renewed war between the US and Iran.On January 7th, according to foreign media reports, Argus released the latest Japanese refinery data: 1. As of the week ending January 3rd, the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 89.2%, basically unchanged from the previous week. Crude oil processing volume remained at 2.8 million barrels per day, and operating capacity remained at 3.1 million barrels per day. 2. Japanese refiner Eneos stated that it will suspend planned maintenance on its 128,000 barrels per day crude oil distillation unit (CDU) at the Marifu refinery starting in mid-January. The unit will resume operation in early April. 3. Regarding prices, with gasoline subsidies ending at the end of 2025, as of January 5th, the average retail gasoline price in Japan was 155.70 yen per liter, lower than 158 yen per liter on December 22nd, marking the lowest level since June 2021. 4. Inventory data shows that as of the week ending January 3, crude oil inventories increased by 6.0% week-on-week to 65.12 million barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 10.67 million barrels; kerosene inventories increased by 8.4% week-on-week to 14.01 million barrels; and diesel inventories surged by 22.4% week-on-week to 10.35 million barrels.

GBP/USD falls to around 1.2370 as the BoE considers taking swift action ahead of UK inflation and US purchasing managers' indices

Alina Haynes

Apr 17, 2023 13:53

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On Monday morning, the GBP/USD currency pair retested an intraday low of 1.2390 after extending Sunday's decline from a 10-month high. To provoke adverse after breaking a four-week uptrend, the Cable pair explains the most recent concerns emanating from the United Kingdom (UK) and the optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed).

 

According to the Financial Times (FT), "The Bank of England is considering a major overhaul of its deposit guarantee scheme, including increasing the amount covered for businesses and compelling banks to pre-fund the system to a greater extent to ensure faster access to cash when a lender collapses."  The revelation fuels banking concerns in the United Kingdom and places pressure on the Cable duo.

 

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's concerns about US subsidies may also be exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate as British firms rush to claim benefits before leaving the country. According to the news, "Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warned Sky News that Britain should be wary of any new subsidies, warning that they could undermine the economy and possibly even spark a protectionist trade war."

 

A larger-than-expected decline in US retail sales was unable to offset positive data from US industrial production and the University of Michigan's (UoM) consumer confidence index from the previous day. Despite this, US retail sales decreased by 1.0% in March compared to the predicted -0.4% decline and February's -0.2% decline. As opposed to the 0.2% market consensus and previous reading, Industrial Production increased by 0.4% in the month in question. The preliminary result of the University of Michigan's (UoM) Consumer Confidence Index for April, which increased to 63.5 from 62.0 analysts' expectations and previous readings, was also encouraging. In addition, inflation forecasts for the next year increased from 3.6% in March to 4.6% in April, while inflation forecasts for the next five years decreased by 2.9% during the same month.

 

Notably, Fed officials have recently appeared more hawkish than their BoE counterparts, which has exerted additional pressure on the GBP/USD exchange rate.

 

In this environment, the S&P 500 Futures exhibit modest gains following Wall Street's pessimistic close, while bond yields remain unchanged following weekly increases.

 

Moving forward, the current week is crucial for GBP/USD speculators as it contains a variety of high-quality inflation, employment, and UK PMI data. These data may be used to support the Bank of England's (BoE) officials' waning hawkish inclination and may keep bears in play. However, the US PMIs and Fed discussions should not be disregarded when looking for clear guidelines.

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