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On February 21, Paul Ashworth, chief economist for North America at Capital Economics, stated that the Trump administration has several other ways to implement trade barriers, potentially resorting to Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 or invoking Section 338 of the original Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. Regarding refunds, Ashworth estimated the amount would reach approximately $120 billion, representing 0.5% of GDP. Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who wrote the main dissenting opinion on the ruling, noted that "this process is likely to be a chaotic affair, as acknowledged in the oral arguments."February 21st - Ian Lingen, Head of U.S. Interest Rate Strategy at BMO Capital Markets, stated that market participants largely anticipated the Supreme Courts ruling, so the limited reaction in the U.S. interest rate market was not surprising. James Assy, Portfolio Manager at Marshall Investment Management, said the reaction has been quite mild so far. The market is unsure what to do. The real big question would have been any talk of refunds. I think this news is slightly bearish for U.S. Treasuries. This is a short-term negative for the budget, so it should be bad for Treasuries. But its really hard to see how this will actually work – its very complex.The German DAX 30 index closed up 231.37 points, or 0.92%, at 25249.35 on Friday, February 20th; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 63.16 points, or 0.59%, at 10690.20 on Friday, February 20th; and the French CAC 40 index closed up 116.71 points, or 1.39%, at 8515.49 on Friday, February 20th; the Euro... The Stoxx 50 index closed up 70.58 points, or 1.16%, at 6130.20 on Friday, February 20; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 162.72 points, or 0.90%, at 18180.22 on Friday, February 20; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 675.28 points, or 1.47%, at 46469.50 on Friday, February 20.The Federation of German Industries (BDI) stated (regarding the US Supreme Courts tariff ruling) that, with Berlins support, the EU should promptly engage with the US to clarify the impact of the current ruling on the EU-US trade agreement.The World Trade Organization declined to comment on the U.S. Tariff Courts ruling.

USD/CAD Bears Anticipate Additional Losses Towards $1.34

Alina Haynes

Apr 13, 2023 14:22

 USD:CAD.png

 

Following a three-day losing trend, the USD/CAD continues to trade near the weekly low around 1.3440 in the early hours of Thursday.

 

In doing so, the Loonie pair justifies yesterday's pullback from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the February-March uptrend, as well as yesterday's retreat from the 100-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA), in conjunction with negative MACD signals.

 

Notably, the RSI (14) line is approaching the oversold region, indicating the USD/CAD exchange rate has limited downside potential.

 

Consequently, a horizontal area containing multiple lows marked since March 3 around 1.3400 becomes the most crucial support for pair traders to track. In addition, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level encircling 1.3390 provides immediate support.

 

A irregular decline towards February's low of 1.3262 cannot be ruled out if the USD/CAD defies RSI conditions and descends below 1.3390.

 

In contrast, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3490, also known as the golden Fibonacci ratio, restricts immediate USD/CAD recovery movements prior to the 1.3535 100-exponential moving average (EMA) barrier.

 

If the USD/CAD exchange rate remains firmer than 1.3535, a convergence of the 200-exponential moving average (EMA) and 50% Fibonacci retracement around 1.3565 will pose a formidable obstacle for buyers.

 

At the time of publication, USD/CAD investors should remain cautious unless they observe a clear break above the previous support line from early February, which was near 1.3670.


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