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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

GBP/USD Attempts To Protect 1.2300 As Market Sentiment Remains Tenuous Due To Rising Crude Prices

Daniel Rogers

Apr 03, 2023 14:15

During the Asian session, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to defend its round-number support level at 1.2300. As a consequence of OPEC+'s announcement of additional oil production cuts, investors in the early Tokyo session discounted the impact of higher oil prices on the Cable. Concerns about global inflationary pressures have been reignited by the crude price increase. Therefore, it may be necessary for central banks to maintain high interest rates for an extended period of time.

 

Following a series of favorable sessions last week, S&P500 futures reported significant losses during the Asian session, as higher oil prices will increase input costs for companies that rely on oil for transportation and manufacturing. The sentiment on the market has deteriorated, and risk-perceived assets have been punished.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is exhibiting a minor correction after reaching a new weekly peak of 102.95. The impact of the deceleration in the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on the USD Index was mitigated by rekindled inflation expectations in the United States due to higher crude prices.

 

The US PCE Price Index increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, which was below both the consensus estimate of 0.4% and the prior reading of 0.5%. In addition, the annual rate of US PCE inflation decreased to 4.6% from 4.7% in the previous report and the consensus estimate.

 

If inflation spikes due to elevated crude prices, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may contemplate additional rate hikes in May.

 

Increasing inflationary pressures on the front of the British Pound are causing the Bank of England more trouble. (BoE). As food prices continue to rise, retail price inflation has increased in the United Kingdom. Moreover, labor shortages continue to influence inflation expectations. However, BoE policymakers are optimistic that the rate of inflation in the United Kingdom will soon begin to fall sharply.


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