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July 11 - According to data from Lighthouse Pro, as of 8:34 PM on July 11, the daily box office revenue of the domestic film market exceeded 300 million yuan, marking the first time since February 26 this year that the daily box office revenue has exceeded 300 million yuan.July 11th - According to the official WeChat account of Hangzhou Metro, due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi (No. 9), Hangzhou City has activated a Level I typhoon emergency response. Starting at 6:00 AM on July 12th, the entire metro network will be suspended, with the resumption time to be announced separately.On July 11, Claudio Descalzi, CEO of Eni, the Italian state-owned holding group, stated that if the Middle East conflict continues, the global oil market will break through the current range of approximately $80 to $100 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027 at the latest, pushing up inflation and reducing energy demand. In an interview published Saturday in Il Sole 24 Ore, Descalzi said that the release of strategic reserves has so far helped keep crude oil prices roughly within this range, but this strategy is facing increasing risks because global reserves are finite. “The long-term solution is to enhance energy security through the diversification of supply sources and routes,” he said. Descalzi noted that global oil inventories have fallen by an average of 3.8 million barrels per day due to disruptions related to the war with Iran that began at the end of February, accelerating to an average of 4.6 million barrels per day in May. He stated that countries should focus on producers in North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, while reducing reliance on controlled maritime routes.July 11th - Industry insiders stated that historically, during periods of high demand in the memory chip industry, manufacturers tend to simultaneously expand production capacity, leading to a concentrated release of new capacity, a price crash, and industry-wide losses. Subsequently, manufacturers collectively reduce capital expenditures, and when demand recovers, another boom occurs – this cycle constitutes the industrys unique cyclical pattern. Since reaching its peak in late June, US memory chip stocks have experienced a collective correction due to concerns about overcapacity, triggered by news such as Metas sale of computing power. Data shows that industry leaders such as SanDisk, Micron Technology, Seagate Technology, and Western Digital have all seen their stock prices fall by more than 20% in the past few weeks. Analysts point out that the underlying logic supporting current demand for memory chips is facing a reassessment, with the core variable being whether the technological gap between various AI large-scale models will continue to narrow. Analysts also pointed out that the memory chip industry is undergoing a profound change in its business model: in the past, memory was more like a commodity, with prices fluctuating with the market, and contracts were mostly on a quarterly or annual basis; now, cloud vendors and AI data centers are increasingly signing long-term supply agreements with original equipment manufacturers for three to five years, with price ranges, minimum purchase quantities, and customer deposits, in order to ensure critical supply.July 11 - Due to the impact of Typhoon Bavi, the ninth typhoon of this year, the Hangzhou Bay Bridge will be closed in both directions starting at 19:30 today, prohibiting all vehicles from passing through.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD to fall to $25.00 as supply concerns subside and risk aversion increases

Daniel Rogers

Apr 20, 2023 13:46

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During the early hours of Thursday, the price of silver (XAG / USD) falls to $25.20, a new intraday low. In doing so, the precious metal records its first daily loss in three days, as concerns of a supply crisis subside and a risk-averse mood prevails.

 

Wednesday, Reuters cited the Silver Institute's annual prognosis report, which stated that global silver demand increased by 18% to a record high of 1.24 billion ounces last year, resulting in a massive supply deficit. According to the report, "The Silver market was undersupplied by 237.7 million ounces in 2022, the institute said in its most recent World Silver Survey, calling this 'possibly the largest deficit on record'."

 

On the other hand, higher inflation indicators from the United Kingdom, the Eurozone, and the United States, along with hawkish comments from the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB), and Federal Reserve (Fed), increase the likelihood of rate increases and dampen investor sentiment. John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is one of the Fed's most recent policy advocates. In May, he voiced support for an interest rate hike of 0.25 percentage points and said, "We will use monetary policy tools to restore price stability." Before him, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee, highlighted the strength of the credit market as one of the most important catalysts to monitor prior to the next Fed monetary policy meeting.

 

With this, market participants increase their wagers on the central bank's 0.25 percentage point rate hike in May to at least 85 percent and reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in 2023.

 

It should be noted that the UK's allegations of China's hidden motive to clamp down on Western infrastructure and the US House China Committee's discussion on the Taiwan invasion scenario rekindle the West vs. China conflict narrative and impact on sentiment. On the same line are the concerns surrounding the probable drag on the US debt ceiling decision as a result of US President Joe Biden's reluctance to raise debt limits.

 

In addition, Reuters reported that US consumers are falling behind on their credit card and loan payments as the economy weakens, which also puts pressure on the XAG/USD exchange rate.

 

In this context, S&P 500 Futures have recorded their first daily loss in four days, falling 0.25 percent intraday to 4,168 as of press time. However, the US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bond yields hover around 3.60 percent and 4.25 percent, respectively, after reaching new monthly highs the day before. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fluctuates around 102.000 after rectifying its adverse bias from the previous day.

 

Considering the future, the recent emphasis on qualitative news highlights them as the most important risk indicator. Nonetheless, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, and Existing Home Sales should be monitored for fresh impulses.


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