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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

E-mini NASDAQ-100: Trying to Form Bullish Reversal Bottom

Cameron Murphy

Apr 26, 2022 10:49


微信截图_20220426095439.png


Monday's mid-session E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are down, although seeking to recoup some of their early losses. Fears about China's COVID-19 breakouts frightened investors already anxious about quicker U.S. interest rate rises denting economic growth, so the tech-weighted index prolonged its steep selloff from last week.


June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading at 13384.50, up 31.00 or 0.23 percent, at 17:20 GMT. This is an increase from the previous low of 13184.00. The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) is up $0.75, or 0.23 percent, to $326.15.


Investors were particularly nervous at the outset of a week that would see megacap firms such as Google parent Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Amazon.com Inc, and Apple Inc report quarterly results.


In mergers and acquisitions news, Twitter Inc jumped 3.9 percent after Reuters reported that it was prepared to accept Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk's 'best and last' cash offer of $54.20 per share.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the major trend is down. The continuation of the decline will be signaled by a trade through the intraday low of 13184.00. The major trend will turn to up if the price breaks over 14298.00.


12942.50 to 15268.75 is the short-term range. The market is now trading on the weak side of its retracement zone, which is resistance from 13831.25 to 14105.75.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

Trader response to 13353.50 will influence the direction of the June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index entering Monday's closing.

Scenario that is bearish

The presence of sellers will be shown by a persistent rise below 13353.50. It will be a sign of weakness if the intraday low of 13184.00 is broken. Look for the selling to continue towards the March 15 major low around 12942.50 if this move develops adequate negative momentum.

Possibilities for Growth

The presence of buyers will be signaled by a persistent advance over 13353.50. Look for a late-session push towards the short-term retracement zone of 13831.25 – 14105.75 if this move creates enough upward momentum.

Notes on the Side

A daily closing price reversal bottom will be formed if the price closes above 13353.50. If this is verified, a minimum 2- to 3-day corrective rally might begin.

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