Short SPX: Top Trade Opportunities

The animal spirits that had dominated the stock market for most of the previous year were breaking as 2021 came to a close. The market then collapsed in Q1. Although the recent drop was severe, it was far from savage.

It's possible that the shot across the bow is to blame. The rally, which started in late March, will be closely monitored since it might be a "sucker's rally" rather than a relief rally. If this is the case, Q2 is likely to see a lower high.

Price isn't expected to rise much over 4600, if at all. A rally that extends beyond that point may still fail as a double-top. The market normally does not retrace more than 60-70 percent of the slide off the record high to reach the classic topping sequence of a high, major drop, lower-high before the massive bear market sell-off.