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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Whenever Iran tries to attack U.S. Navy ships, they lose oil tankers.According to CMEs "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 40.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 59.4%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged by October is 29.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 25 basis points is 54.4%, and the probability of a cumulative rate hike of 50 basis points is 15.8%.According to Sepahnews, a media outlet affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Irans tough response continues.According to Sepahnews, a media outlet affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Iranian missiles struck US targets in Jordan.Conflict Update: 1. The Houthi rebels announced a broad military operation deep within Saudi territory. 2. The Houthis claimed that there is "no safe place" in Saudi Arabia and that all energy facilities are legitimate targets. 3. According to Al-Masirah TV, controlled by the Houthis, Saudi Arabia launched four airstrikes on Marib, Yemen. 4. Energy and utility facilities in southern Saudi Arabia were attacked by the Houthis, temporarily suspending some operations. 5. Iran claimed to have seized the "worlds most advanced intelligent unmanned submarine." 6. Alerts were issued in Jizan, Najran, and Abha provinces of Saudi Arabia, but were subsequently lifted. 7. US officials responded to Irans "seizure" of an underwater drone: the equipment was malfunctioning and contained no sensitive data. 8. Iranian media reported explosions near Kharg Island and Jask region of Iran. 9. Irans Tasnim News Agency reported that an Iranian oil tanker was attacked by a US missile four miles from Kharg Island. No casualties were reported, and the tanker crew is being evacuated. 10. According to Fox News: Senior U.S. officials stated that the U.S. militarys attacks on targets near Kharg Island and Jask, involving Iranian oil tankers, are part of the U.S. effort to exert economic pressure by weakening Irans oil export capabilities. 11. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy stated that in response to the U.S. attacks on multiple Iranian oil tankers, it will issue warnings to all oil tankers docked in Kuwaiti and Bahrain ports and anchorages, demanding that crew members immediately evacuate their vessels, and stating that these ships will become targets. Strait of Hormuz 1. According to Saudi media Alhadath: Iran and the U.S. are exchanging views on negotiation plans and conditions through mediators. Iran has presented new conditions for resuming negotiations to the U.S. Iran stated that there is no need to withdraw from the memorandum of understanding with the U.S. 2. According to Iranian state media: The Iranian Joint Military Command stated that if Iranian ships are attacked, it will "severely damage" U.S. interests in the Middle East. Other Matters 1. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a new round of sanctions related to Iran. 2. Saudi Foreign Minister: Diplomatic channels with the Houthis remain open. 3. U.S. officials: If the UK sanctions Israeli settlements, there will be an immediate response. 4. International Organization for Migration: Fighting escalates off Yemens west coast, displacing approximately 18,500 people in three days. 5. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu: We are approaching a decisive moment in our confrontation with the "octopus" (Iran and its regional allies network). 6. US media: US officials say recent Iranian actions against US warships suggest the possibility of Iran using more advanced missiles.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Weekly Forecasts – Bond Yields Hammer Equity Sentiment

Skylar Shaw

Apr 25, 2022 10:31

It's going to be a busy week for US firms reporting first-quarter profits, with familiar names like General Electric (GE), Microsoft (MSFT), Ford (F), Twitter (TWTR), Amazon (AMZN), and Apple (APPL) all due to release their latest quarterly financial reports. Netflix (NFLX) and Tesla (TSLA) had drastically contrasting results this week, with Netflix (NFLX) falling over 35% on very low membership numbers and Tesla (TSLA) rising approximately 8% on strong sales and profitability. 


The fact that famed hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman sold his newly acquired Netflix position for a $400 million loss after the results does not bode well for other stay-at-home tech businesses. The earnings schedule for the next week might be full of surprises.

 

While the small print of firms' balance sheets will be scrutinized next week, the 800-pound monster in the room — US interest rates and government bond yields – will need even greater scrutiny. 


Market expectations for US rate rises have risen to the point that the market is now pricing in the Federal Reserve aggressively front-loading rate hikes, with four 50 basis point raises expected at the next four FOMC meetings. 


The last time the Fed raised interest rates by 50 basis points was in May of 2000. While increased interest rates may help banks make more money, the IT industry, particularly the big names like Apple and Amazon, becomes less tempting as interest rates rise.


After Thursday's bearish engulfing candle erased the preceding three days' gains, the S&P 500 is expected to close the week flat. The 200-day simple moving average behaved as resistance, and the indices are currently trading below all three moving averages (20, 50, and 200), which is still another bad indicator. If support at 4,361 is firmly broken, 4,270 seems to be the next target.