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The German DAX 30 index closed down 87.88 points, or 0.35%, at 25286.63 on Friday, January 16; the UK FTSE 100 index closed down 8.89 points, or 0.09%, at 10230.05 on Friday, January 16; the French CAC 40 index closed down 54.18 points, or 0.65%, at 8258.94 on Friday, January 16; European... The Stoxx 50 index closed down 14.99 points, or 0.25%, at 6026.15 on Friday, January 16; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 59.93 points, or 0.34%, at 17702.63 on Friday, January 16; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 83.27 points, or 0.18%, at 45766.50 on Friday, January 16.On January 17th, U.S. Treasury prices fell as Trump hinted at nominating someone other than National Economic Council Director Hassett to succeed Powell, and traders reduced their expectations for two U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasuries pushed the two-year yield up as much as 5 basis points to 3.61%, the highest level since the Feds last rate cut in December. Following Trumps comments on Hassett, short-term interest rate contracts reflected a decreased probability of two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the Fed this year. Meanwhile, the Treasury market continued to be troubled by the December jobs data released a week earlier, prompting Wall Street banks that had previously predicted a rate cut at the Feds next meeting on January 28th to abandon that view. Morgan inflation economists predict that despite the change in Fed leadership, the Fed will not cut rates further. John Fath, managing partner of BTG Pactual Asset Management U.S., said, "The previous trade was betting that whoever becomes the next Fed chairman will be dovish. That has reversed in the last few days."Finnair: Operations in Iraqi airspace have been suspended until further notice.Finnair: Due to the situation in the Middle East, we are avoiding Iraqi airspace, so flights from Dubai and Doha to Helsinki may take longer than usual.January 17th - According to US media reports, as the world awaits a ruling on Trumps signature tariff policy, the US Supreme Court has set January 20th (Tuesday) as the next ruling day, at which time at least one ruling is likely to be issued. As is customary, the court did not specify which rulings are ready to be issued, only stating that a decision may be delivered when the justices appear in court at 10:00 AM Washington time (11:00 PM Beijing time). If a ruling on the tariff case is not issued next week, it may take at least another month. If the Supreme Court rules against Trump on the tariff issue, it will weaken a core pillar of his economic agenda and represent his biggest legal setback since returning to the White House. The focus of the dispute is the tariffs he imposed on April 2nd, "Liberation Day," a policy that imposes tariffs of 10% to 50% on most imported goods and imposes tariffs on countries such as Canada and Mexico under the pretext of addressing fentanyl trafficking.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

 EUR:GBP.png

 

The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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