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On August 12th, the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) released its 2026 Q2 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. Since the beginning of this year, influenced by factors such as the tense situation in the Middle East, international crude oil and commodity prices have risen, and inflation levels in major economies have generally increased due to external supply shocks. Recently, the monetary policies of major overseas central banks, such as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have shown adjustments or tendencies towards adjustments, which may have spillover effects on the global economy and financial markets. The monetary policy stances of major overseas central banks are trending towards a shift. As of the end of July, among the central banks of major developed economies, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan had raised interest rates, while the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate but released hawkish signals. It is expected that this round of monetary policy adjustments by major central banks will be relatively mild. Over the past decade or so, monetary policy adjustments by major central banks have often had significant spillover effects on the global economy and financial markets. However, based on the current situation, it is expected that the magnitude of this round of monetary policy adjustments will be relatively mild, and the impact may be smaller than in the past.A senior Iranian source said the United States violated the interim agreement just 48 hours after it was reached and withdrew from it a few days later.A senior Iranian source stated that there have been no discussions between Iran and the United States regarding extending the ceasefire. From Irans perspective, the ceasefire agreement has no effective date, therefore there is no need to extend it.Market sources indicate that a senior Iraqi security delegation will visit Saudi Arabia tomorrow to discuss a range of security issues.Germanys unadjusted current account balance for June was €19 billion, compared to €10.4 billion in the previous month.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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