EUR/USD 1.17912
0.078%
Gold 4861.36
1.474%
Oil 82.741
-7.681%
USD/JPY 158.221
-0.578%
GBP/USD 1.35486
0.164%
GBP/JPY 214.372
-0.404%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 18th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he is cautious about the need for interest rate cuts in the near term due to the energy shock caused by the war with Iran, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his speech, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials will be able to ignore the surge in energy prices and shift their focus later this year to the weak labor market. He stated that if this scenario occurs, "I think one prospect is that underlying inflation will continue to decline toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting rates now and more inclined to support the labor market through rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the overall market are underestimating the risks of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices remain high, the greater the likelihood that these high prices will permeate into other prices, as businesses will factor in the high costs of energy inputs when pricing." He stated that if this scenario occurs against the backdrop of a weak labor market, it will limit policy options. In this scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labor market. "If the risks of inflation outweigh the risks of the labor market, it could mean keeping the policy rate in its current target range."Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: High energy costs are squeezing consumer and business investment. We will not allow rising energy prices to translate into sustained inflation.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: We do not want to raise interest rates too early, but we are aware of the associated risks.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: There remains “considerable uncertainty” regarding the continued impact on tanker shipping.Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Overall PCE inflation in March is likely to reach 3.5% year-on-year.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

 EUR:GBP.png

 

The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


Suggestion