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On September 17th, according to Futures Market News, in the 38th week of 2026, the total output of refined oil products from independent refineries in China was 2.2054 million tons, a decrease of 66,400 tons from the previous week. Specifically, gasoline output was 671,700 tons, a decrease of 31,200 tons from the previous week; diesel output was 1.5337 million tons, a decrease of 35,200 tons from the previous week. A new round of unit maintenance began at some refineries, leading to a decrease in output from refineries in major regions such as Shandong and Northwest China, resulting in a reduction in the overall refined oil product output of independent refineries nationwide.French European Affairs Minister: The United States, or any other country, has no right to veto the relationship between the EU and Canada.September 17th - According to Nikkei, the Japanese and US governments are in talks to build a semiconductor factory. This project is part of a $550 billion (approximately 85 trillion yen) investment plan in the US agreed upon during tariff negotiations, and is estimated to be worth trillions of yen. Previously, investment in the US was mainly concentrated in the power generation sector; now it will shift to high-tech manufacturing. Operations will be handled by semiconductor foundry giant GlobalFoundries. This information was revealed by negotiators from both Japan and the US.French Minister for European Affairs: (Regarding Trumps remarks on EU-Canada relations) The United States has no right to determine the geopolitical direction of the European Union.On September 17th, a Danske Bank report indicated limited signs of inflation transmission to broader prices in the UK. Core inflation remained at 2.6% for the third consecutive month, and businesses own price inflation expectations for the next year fell to 3.8%. Meanwhile, July GDP growth was 0.4%, and the labor market cooled moderately, which is insufficient to support an immediate interest rate hike. Bank of England Governor Bailey remains inclined to wait and see, and Deputy Governor Lombardy has previously emphasized that a clear second-round inflation effect is needed before adjusting policy. Therefore, a 6-3 vote to keep interest rates unchanged is highly likely on Thursday. The baseline scenario remains that interest rates will remain at 3.75% until the second quarter of 2027. If energy prices remain high and the economy remains resilient, the Bank of England may still implement an "insurance rate hike." Due to relatively aggressive market pricing, if the policy stance is less hawkish than expected, the euro/pound may face upside risks.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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