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On September 13th, it was reported that the Houthi rebels in Yemen have recently intensified their offensive against government forces and seized control of strategic locations in the Red Sea. Experts analyze that changes in the balance of power within Yemen and the conflict between the United States and Iran are the reasons for the rapid escalation of the conflict in Yemen. Li Zixin, assistant researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, stated that firstly, since the sudden escalation of the current Israeli-Palestinian crisis in October 2023, the Houthi rebels have frequently conducted military operations in the Red Sea under the pretext of supporting Hamas. During this process, the Houthis have continuously trained in missiles, drones, and cross-sea strikes, and have also cooperated to a considerable extent with regional allies, gradually enabling them to operate on multiple fronts. Secondly, since the UN-mediated ceasefire agreement in 2022 failed to be renewed, the various factions within the Yemeni government forces have never been able to effectively integrate. Currently facing multiple Houthi attacks, the US forces are almost instantly routed, with some even retreating before the battle even begins. Within nine days, they have lost several strategic locations, including the Mukha and Hanish Islands, surrendering areas once largely controlled by the government forces to the Houthis. Thirdly, with the US deeply mired in the war against Iran, the Houthis have precisely seized upon this power vacuum.On September 13, the Canadian Prime Ministers Office announced that Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit Strasbourg, France, and Liverpool, UK, from September 15-17. The announcement stated that the Canadian government is building diverse partnerships. In France, Carney will address the European Parliament at the invitation of European Parliament President Jean-Michel Mezzola, attend European Commission President Ursula von der Leyens State of the Union address, and meet with MEPs to strengthen ties between Canada and the EU in trade, investment, and security. In the UK, Carney will hold his first meeting with Prime Minister Burnham to discuss priorities in bilateral relations, particularly in defense, energy, artificial intelligence, and critical minerals.On September 13, Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi on September 12, local time. According to the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, the two sides discussed the reasons for Iraqs recent temporary closure of some border crossings with Iran and the subsequent arrangements, and exchanged views on the attacks on Saudi Arabia and the progress of related investigations. They also discussed a regional conference planned for Oman. Member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Iraq, and Iran will participate, focusing on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz. Hussein stated that Iraq supports holding the conference and will send a delegation. The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in Yemen and expressed their commitment to easing regional tensions through dialogue and negotiation.On September 13, local time, Houthi military spokesman Yahya stated that in response to Saudi Arabias continued military operation in Yemen, the Houthi rebels launched a military operation, striking an weapons depot at a military base in Saudi Arabias Shahrala region, as well as the command and control center responsible for directing and coordinating military operations against Yemen and its people. Yahya said the operation used a large number of ballistic missiles and drones, and the target was "precisely and directly struck." He warned that if Saudi Arabia continues its military operation in Yemen, the Houthi forces will launch larger-scale and more intense military operations against targets deep within Saudi territory, and Saudi Arabia will bear serious consequences.On September 13, the Prime Minister of Qatar and the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Jordan discussed diplomatic efforts to "de-escalate tensions and promote security and stability." Both sides stated that Qatar supports all efforts aimed at "reaching a solution that ensures freedom of navigation at sea and paving the way for a comprehensive agreement that achieves lasting peace in the region." They also discussed ways to support and strengthen bilateral cooperation.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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