EUR/USD 1.15961
-0.129%
Gold 4365.81
1.143%
Oil 96.537
-3.969%
USD/JPY 153.662
-0.488%
GBP/USD 1.35145
0.028%
GBP/JPY 207.671
-0.463%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On September 11th, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. Driven by rising energy prices, the overall CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. The report indicated that facing continued pressure from the Iran war, tariffs, and data center construction, inflation made little progress toward the Federal Reserves target last month. Previously, some officials had hinted that the decision on September 15-16 would depend on data performance; given this data, the Fed is likely to consider it a catalyst for its first interest rate hike in three years. As investors increased their bets on a rate hike, U.S. Treasury yields rose, and stock index futures remained high. Fed Chairman Warsh had previously been reluctant to reveal the Feds intentions for its next move. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is facing the challenge of a rebound in energy prices due to supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. This week, oil prices broke through $100 per barrel, and U.S. retail diesel prices also hit a record high.September 11th - U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August as gasoline costs rebounded after two consecutive months of decline, strengthening financial markets expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-over-month last month, following a slight increase of 0.1% in July. Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in the 12 months ending in August, unchanged from July. The seasonally adjusted core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, higher than the market expectation of 0.2%. Thursdays data already showed a rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August, with several key components showing strong increases, which are included in the PCE inflation calculation. This, coupled with last weeks strong August jobs report, further boosted market expectations for a rate hike next week. After the release of the U.S. August CPI data, the market estimated a roughly 90% probability of a Fed rate hike next week.The market fully expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates twice before the end of the year.September 11 - Following the release of the US August CPI data, the market expects a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week.The U.S. unadjusted annual inflation rate for used cars and trucks was -2.3% in August, compared with -1.9% previously.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

 EUR:GBP.png

 

The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


Suggestion