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On July 12, 2026, the head of the Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement regarding the Japanese Foreign Ministers hype surrounding the tenth anniversary of the "South China Sea arbitration ruling" and Japans joint statement with other countries. The Chinese side urgently summoned the chief minister of the Japanese Embassy in China to lodge a solemn representation, expressing strong dissatisfaction and protest. China pointed out that Japan bears historical responsibility for the South China Sea issue and has not yet settled accounts, and has no right to make irresponsible remarks. Japans egregious words and actions challenge the post-war international order and international rule of law, adhere to double standards, distort facts, undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea, and violate the common interests and wishes of regional countries. This has aroused historical vigilance and strong indignation from the international community, including China, regarding Japans aggression and colonial atrocities since modern times. China will resolutely and forcefully counter Japans provocations and firmly defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. China also lodged a strong protest regarding the Taiwan issue, Japans abandoned chemical weapons, Japanese parliamentarians unwarranted comments on Chinas ethnic policies, and a series of negative developments in Japans military and security.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.1 occurred at 22:01 on July 12 near Xinghua City, Taizhou City, Jiangsu Province (32.69 degrees north latitude, 120.10 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.Israeli forces: Killed two Hamas members in northern Gaza Strip.On July 12, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that Russian forces launched a large-scale attack and destroyed multiple Ukrainian military facilities from the night of July 11 to the early morning of July 12. The Ministry stated that Russian forces attacked and destroyed Ukrainian fuel, energy, and transportation facilities, long-range drone storage points, ammunition depots, and temporary deployment points of Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries in 158 regions. In the past 24 hours, Russian forces destroyed 585 drones and 11 aerial bombs launched by Ukrainian forces. The acting governor of Belgorod Oblast, Shuvaev, posted on social media on July 12 that in the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces launched more than 100 attacks on 11 regions of the oblast, resulting in one death and seven injuries. Russian forces intercepted 111 drones. According to Russian media reports, due to the drone attacks, several Russian cities temporarily restricted civilian aircraft takeoffs and landings from the night of July 11 to the early morning of July 12, causing delays to dozens of flights.1. Monday: ① Data: Chinas June M2 money supply annual rate (TBD). ② Event: OPEC releases its monthly oil market report (specific release time to be determined, generally around 6-9 PM Beijing time). 2. Tuesday: ① Data: US June NFIB Small Business Confidence Index, ADP Employment Change, US June CPI and Core CPI data; Chinas June trade balance. ② Event: Fed Governor Waller speaks; State Council Information Office holds press conference on import and export situation in the first half of 2026; Fed Chairman Warsh attends hearing on the House Financial Services Committees "Federal Reserve Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" [simultaneous interpretation]. ③ Earnings Reports: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo (pre-market). 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API crude oil inventory weekly report, EIA crude oil inventory weekly report, US June PPI year-on-year and month-on-month rates, US July New York Fed Manufacturing Index; Chinas Q2 GDP year-on-year rate, June retail sales of consumer goods year-on-year, June industrial value-added of enterprises above designated size year-on-year, Chinas June total electricity consumption (tentative); Eurozone May industrial production month-on-month rate; Canadas May wholesale sales month-on-month rate, Bank of Canada interest rate decision until July 15. ② Events: The National Energy Administration releases monthly electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month; Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, participates in a fireside chat; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivers a speech; the National Bureau of Statistics releases a monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 major and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the national economic situation; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; the Bank of Canada releases its interest rate decision and monetary policy report; Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh attends a hearing on the "Federal Reserves Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee [simultaneous interpretation]; Bank of Canada Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers hold a monetary policy press conference. ③ Earnings Reports: Morgan Stanley, ASML, Johnson & Johnson, BlackRock (pre-market). 4. Thursday: ① Data: South Koreas central bank interest rate decision to July 16; UKs May three-month GDP month-on-month rate, May manufacturing output month-on-month rate, May seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, May industrial production month-on-month rate; Eurozones May seasonally adjusted trade balance; US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, June retail sales month-on-month rate, July Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, July NAHB Housing Market Index, May business inventories month-on-month rate, June pending home sales index month-on-month rate, EIA natural gas weekly report. ② Events: The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book on economic conditions; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalaim speaks; Changxin Technology begins its IPO subscription. ③ Earnings Reports: TSMC (pre-market), Netflix, Alcoa (after-market). 5. Friday: ① Data: Eurozone May seasonally adjusted current account, June final CPI annual rate; US June annualized housing starts, June building permits, June import price index month-on-month, June industrial production month-on-month, July preliminary one-year inflation rate expectations, July preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. ② Events: Domestic refined oil prices will enter a new round of adjustment window; Dallas Fed President Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member, will speak; Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak on the economy and monetary policy; the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC 2026) will be held in Shanghai from July 17 to July 20. ③ Market Closure: Seoul Stock Exchange in South Korea will be closed for one day. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending July 17.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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