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On June 4th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicate Israel and Lebanon, under US guidance, have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire, with full-scale talks scheduled to resume the week of June 22nd. However, this is contingent on Hezbollahs complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market will likely absorb this headline, largely treating it as already priced in. This Lebanese ceasefire plan, framed by Hezbollahs adherence to the agreement and the establishment of a "pilot zone," is essentially a document aimed at advancing the process, not a final solution. The condition attached to the plan—Hezbollahs complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the Litani River region—is precisely the crux of the failures that led to previous arrangements. The market will note that the next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22nd, three weeks from now. If there is any definite takeaway, it is that this announcement confirms the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and unpredictable factor, rather than a settled situation. At the same time, it does not offer any substantial help in resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, or in alleviating the broader US-Iran conflict that is currently driving up oil prices.U.S. State Department: All parties condemn Irans attacks on countries in the region.On June 4th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 3rd that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing well and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump said, "Ive heard the negotiations themselves are going very well, actually quite well… If an agreement is reached, it will likely be announced this weekend." When asked whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would still be in effect after Irans latest attack on Kuwait, Trump said, "Everything happens for a reason," adding that the US military had launched a fairly heavy attack on Iran two nights ago, "so some things happen for a reason, and those reasons usually make some sense." He also said that Irans actions were "not a big deal," and that "we have the situation under control and have quickly nipped it in the bud."According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to charge up to $200 per month for its planned "Hatch" AI agent.Broadcom CEO: The company plans to deliver 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, and expects to achieve even greater computing power growth in 2028.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.


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