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On June 7th, US President Trump stated that it would be a mistake for Federal Reserve policymakers to raise interest rates after the US jobs data significantly exceeded expectations. He also insisted that he did not want to influence Kevin Warsh before his first Fed meeting. In an interview with NBC, Trump said, "These days, whenever the economic data is good, the market goes down because everyone thinks the Fed will raise rates. But theres absolutely no reason to raise rates." Trumps remarks further increased the economic and political pressure on Warsh. Trump stated, "Raising the benchmark interest rate is the wrong thing to do. In fact, we should lower rates." Trump added, "I work with Kevin now. I have a lot of respect for him, but my view is that when a countrys economy is doing well, it shouldnt be punished immediately by raising interest rates." He further added, "We have a debt problem, and a lot of other things to deal with, a lot of plans to move forward. I want to further increase defense spending."June 7th - According to a communique released after Sundays OPEC meeting, the seven OPEC+ member countries (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Algeria, and Oman) decided to raise their daily crude oil production ceiling by 188,000 barrels starting in July. The communique stated that the countries reiterated the importance of a cautious approach and will retain full flexibility to increase, suspend, or reverse voluntary production cuts. The seven countries will meet again on July 5th.US President Trump: There is no reason to raise interest rates (regarding the Federal Reserve).1. Monday: ① Data: Japans April trade balance; Switzerlands May consumer confidence index; Eurozones June Sentix investor confidence index. ② Holiday: Australia closed for the day. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Chinas May trade balance; Germanys April seasonally adjusted trade balance and industrial production month-on-month; US April trade balance, NFIB small business confidence index, ADP employment change week-on-week, May existing home sales report, and April wholesale sales month-on-month report. ② Event: Apples WWDC developer conference, until June 13. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: US API and EIA crude oil inventory weekly report, May CPI; Chinas May CPI, PPI, M2 and other financial data (time to be determined). ② Event: EIA releases monthly short-term energy outlook report; Bank of Canada interest rate decision, press conference by the governor and senior deputy governor. ③ Earnings report: Oracle. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US initial jobless claims, May PPI, and EIA natural gas storage weekly report. ② Events: US 10-year Treasury auction; ECB interest rate decision and ECB presidents press conference; OPEC monthly report. 5. Friday: ① Data: German and French May CPI; UK April three-month GDP month-on-month rate, manufacturing output month-on-month rate, seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, industrial production month-on-month rate; US June one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value. ② Events: Huawei Developer Conference, SpaceX listing on Nasdaq, World Cup officially starts. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending June 12.According to Saudi media Alhadath, Israel notified the United States in advance before attacking the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Despite the fact that Eurozone interest rates are anticipated to peak sooner, the EUR/GBP looks to have breached over 0.8630

Daniel Rogers

Dec 07, 2022 15:12

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The EUR/GBP pair has had a stronger recovery from 0.8580 during the Asian session, approaching the pivotal 0.8630 level. Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) being close to reaching an interest rate high, there has been strong demand for Euro bulls. Thus, the monetary policy meeting scheduled for next week will be of utmost significance.

 

The cross is attempting to break strongly above the significant barrier of 0.8630 for the fourth time this week. The hawkish remarks made by ECB policymakers are holding back the euro bulls.

 

"There will be another rate hike," said Constantinos Herodotou, governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus, "but we are very near to neutral." The European Central Bank's chief economist, Phillip Lane, is unsure as to whether the inflation peak has already occurred or will take place in 2019. He stated that although "much has already been done," he does not rule out more rate increases.

 

Investors are currently looking forward to Christine Lagarde's speech, which will be revealed on Thursday. The ECB President is likely to lower her inflation projection in her future statement in light of the poor retail sales numbers.

 

In contrast to expectations for a 1.7% loss, this week's Eurozone retail sales numbers showed a 1.8% decline. Aside from that, annual economic data contraction came in at 2.7% as opposed to the 2.6% consensus expectation. A decline in household demand demonstrates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy tightening initiatives. To reach their sales targets, firms could feel pressured to lower the prices of their products and services.

 

The United Kingdom's deteriorating food crisis, brought on by growing costs and a labor shortfall, has had an impact on the Pound Sterling. According to Minette Batters, president of the National Farmers Union, "the government and the entire supply chain must act swiftly." The Financial Times stated that "tomorrow might be too late." The economy already faces rising food inflation, and the issue with the supply of food will make matters worse.