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March 27, Swedens Nordic Bank said that auto tariffs represent another escalation in Trumps new round of trade war, which looks much more serious than his first term. We have lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US economy this year to 1.9% from 2.4% in February, but we still maintain our forecast of 1.9% for 2026. More disturbing is the uncertainty caused by Trumps erratic tariff decisions, which brings a risk that both businesses and households suspend investment and purchases until the situation becomes clearer. Given that the Trump administration still intends to introduce industry tariffs later, and as other countries retaliate, this uncertainty may last longer. The impact of the "Government Efficiency Department" spending cuts is more far-reaching than we originally expected, which is another downside risk to economic growth.On March 27, HSBC Global Research issued a report stating that Pop Mart (09992.HK)s performance in the mainland far exceeded expectations, and its profit in 2024 was 9% higher than the banks forecast. Benefiting from the strong momentum of IP and the US market, the bank raised the groups target price by 35%, from HK$127.65 to HK$172. Maintain a "buy" rating. The report stated that with the positive momentum of Nezha 2s licensed IP products in the mainland and North American markets, management expects the groups revenue to increase by more than 50% year-on-year in 2025. Therefore, HSBC raised its forecast for the groups revenue growth rate in 2025 from 35% to 58%, and raised its net profit forecast by 27%. At the same time, the average annual compound growth rate of net profit from 2024 to 2026 was also raised to 48%, resulting in a 36% increase in the net profit forecast for 2026.Country Garden Services (06098.HK): Plans to use no less than RMB 500 million to repurchase or purchase shares.Country Garden Services (06098.HK): Full-year revenue of RMB 43.99 billion, estimated at RMB 43.63 billion; full-year net profit of RMB 1.81 billion, estimated at RMB 1.81 billion.On March 27, Brazilian President Lula said that US President Trumps policy of imposing tariffs could harm the US economy. He also vowed to file a complaint with the World Trade Organization regarding the US trade tax on Brazilian steel. "This will raise commodity prices and may lead to inflation, which he has not yet realized. Protectionism does not help any country in the world."

Deep Dive into Bitcoin’s Elliott Wave Count

Jimmy Khan

Mar 02, 2023 15:35

微信截图_20230302114650.png

Additional Fifth Wave?

We discovered using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) for Bitcoin (BTC) two weeks ago that resistance is currently at $25.5K, in contrast to the more normal connection between the 5th wave and the first and third waves, which is frequently 0.618x the entire W-i+iii rise. 

Therefore, we can accept higher values and the achievement of our $27-28K goal zone as long as Bitcoin can maintain a price above $22.5K.


Bitcoin peaked at $25.3K the day after, exactly at the resistance, and fell to $22.8K over the weekend. Is the optimal goal of $27–28K still attainable—keep in mind that markets do not have to be perfect—then? Bitcoin is no exception to the trend of prolonged 5th waves in cryptocurrencies. In this scenario, as shown in Figure 1 below, the weekend drop represented a 62% retracement of the February rise.


As a result, we can set up in a beautiful green W-1, 2. We can allow for this configuration as long as the lows reached this weekend hold (thus, these lows can be used as a stop loss). To be confirmed, this option will need to break out above the February highs ($25,333) without falling below them. Then, we can anticipate a recovery that will, ideally, reach $31K+/-500.


The Bears are given a strong caution if Bitcoin descends below this weekend's low, which could lead to a drop to the red W-iv low. Below that, the possibility depicted in Figure 2 below becomes more probable.