EUR/USD 1.18008
0.022%
Gold 3355.37
-0.047%
Oil 65.939
-1.169%
USD/JPY 143.833
0.129%
GBP/USD 1.36742
0.287%
GBP/JPY 196.682
0.465%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Japanese Senator Munetoshi Kamiya: We do not think that American rice should be imported into Japan. It is not in the national interest to make further concessions in agriculture in order to protect the automobile industry.The final UK Services PMI for June will be released in ten minutes.Japanese Senator Munetoshi Kamiya: Japan must first focus on increasing demand, which is what we have been asking the Bank of Japan to consider.July 3, traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data for June. Economists generally expect 110,000 new non-farm payrolls, up from 139,000 in the previous month, and the unemployment rate may rise slightly from 4.2% to 4.3%. Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, pointed out that if the non-farm data is lower than expected, funds may shift from high-valuation technology stocks to value stocks. He said, "There may be uncertainty in the market. In the game between the decline of technology stocks and the rise of value stocks, since technology stocks account for 40% of the market value, it often leads to an overall decline in the market." But he added that weak data may also prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in July ahead of schedule.Moodys Ratings said on July 3 that tariffs and global trade uncertainty have increased credit risks in the Asia-Pacific region, and the company downgraded the regions sovereign credit outlook from stable to negative. Tariffs have posed long-term credit risks to some Asia-Pacific economies, undermining their attractiveness and curbing foreign investment. Fiscal spending is likely to increase to help economic growth and slow or stop fiscal consolidation. Falling revenues - especially for trade-intensive countries - will further limit flexibility, while wider deficits will increase borrowing needs. If trade negotiations result in a significant reduction in tariffs, Moodys will adjust the outlook back to stable. Conversely, escalating tariffs, a sharp increase in interest rate spreads or continued geopolitical conflicts will worsen the situation.

Can the S&P 500 Still Reach 4300?

Steven Zhao

Mar 01, 2023 15:55


The Revision was carried on

Using the Elliott Wave Principle over several weeks, we were able to effectively monitor the highs and lows of the S&P 500 (SPX) (EWP). As a result, we discovered in our most recent update from two weeks ago that, "Thus, unless the SPX falls below Friday's bottom at $4060, we see no reason not to anticipate $4260-4295. Sorry there was no update last week, as I was on a vacation. The gauge will then likely retrace for several weeks before making a recovery to the optimal price of $4395+/-25.


Sadly, the $4060 low, which might have served as a stop loss, did not hold, and the index fell further until it reached a bottom of $3943 last Friday. Therefore, even though the EWP can be used to make many accurate predictions, nobody can always anticipate everything. Because of this, all we can do is "predict, watch, and modify as needed". We expected $4060 to remain stable. We kept an eye on it and discovered that it did not, so we adjusted our initial projections to the EWP figure depicted in Figure 1 below. So let me clarify.

When support fails, an alternative EWP option emerges

The recovery from the December bottom was not a five-wave impulse structure based on the standard Fibonacci sequence (SFFIS). Quite the opposite. When we expect a fifth surge higher, the market falters and falls short, just like all rises we've seen since 2022. As a result, we continue to work with (possible) a-b-c structures, which are much less trustworthy than the SFFIS. Welcome to Super Cycle IV, the fourth cycle in this instance. In addition, an SFFIS is frequently present if we anticipate a C-wave recovery off the December bottom.


However, the rise can only be classified as five waves if the latest "sell-off," which has been rather orderly and overlapping, is classified as an Expanding Ending Diagonal (EED) C-wave. However, because they frequently travel in contiguous a-b-c patterns and do not have as precise (Fib-based) principles as an SFFIS, diagonals are unstable. An ED can basically do whatever it wishes as long as W-3 is not the smallest and W-4 does not extend below the commencement of W-3, which is the conclusion of W-2. The EWP regulations for the EED are shown in Figure 1 above.


Thus, regrettably, with last week's extended slide into the lower end of support, we are left with two less-than-ideal tallies since the December lows: an EED vs. a bigger a-b-c. To see an alternative a-b-c, refer to figure 2 below. Both EWP numbers are far from optimal and have their problems. Sadly, this makes it challenging to express a high level of trust in regard to our main anticipation.


Not my problem. Simply put, that is the setting we are in. For additional hints to determine the likelihood of each option, we at Intelligent Investing also inform our Premium Members on a variety of other signs and plots, such as market width, trends, and mood.

Suggestion