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According to Politico: U.S. House Republican Don Bacon said he plans to introduce a companion bill to bipartisan Senate legislation aimed at restoring Congresss authority over tariffs, becoming the first House Republican to publicly challenge the power Trump has used to launch a massive global trade war.April 5th news, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held on May 6-7. The futures market had raised the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates at that meeting to about 50%, but after Powells speech, the probability fell to about 30%. Market participants hope to see the so-called Fed Put (Fed Put option), that is, the Federal Reserve calms the troubled market by cutting interest rates, but on Friday, their expectations fell through, causing the stock market to fall. "Powells remarks highlight that we are still a long way from the macro environment and market data that may produce a Fed Put," wrote Krishna Guha, chairman of Evercore ISI. "He is seeking to control expectations to reserve room for rate cuts when unemployment rises sharply. Before that, preemptive action is impossible given the scale of the tariff inflation surge." For Powell, there is no rush now. Guha said: "It feels like we dont need to rush, it feels like we still have time."JPMorgan Chase: Predicts a US economic recession in 2025.On April 5, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear that the Fed will not rush to respond to the comprehensive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, nor will it respond to the financial market turmoil caused by concerns about a global recession. Powell said at a conference in Virginia on Friday that tariffs could have a significant impact on the US economy, including slower growth and higher inflation. But he added that Fed officials will wait until these policies are clearer before cutting interest rates. He also emphasized that with inflation still high, the central bank has an obligation to ensure that the temporary increase in prices caused by tariffs does not turn into a more lasting increase. "The Fed cant insure the economy as it did in the trade war in 2018 and 2019 because inflation is too high and above their target," said Julia Coronado, founder of research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. She believes there will be a recession in the second half of this year. "Even if they conclude that they need to cut interest rates, they may cut interest rates later and slower because we will be in the inflationary impulse."Russian drones carried out a "large-scale" attack on Krivoy Rog, Ukraine, following a missile strike, local Ukrainian officials said, starting fires at four locations.

Bulls in EUR / USD Have Taken Out Significant Lows, Dropping Below 1.0570 So Far

Alina Haynes

Mar 01, 2023 11:51

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On Tuesday, the EUR / USD exchange rate hit a bottom of 1.0573, but that was not the only development. Early in the day, higher-than-expected French inflation figures drew investors to the Euro, driving short-term euro zone yields to their greatest levels in at least a decade. Then, at the start of the US trading session, the pair increased to 1.0645 as US data showed that, in contrast to several prior inflationary results, the Fed's rate rises were starting to have the intended impact.

 

According to ANZ Bank analysts, "Base effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year should start to push annual inflation down from March, but the ECB will be mainly worried with consecutive monthly inflation rises." Inflation statistics for Germany and the euro zone will be released soon, giving the Governing Council meeting in March a more comprehensive inflation picture.

 

Unexpectedly, the US Consumer Sentiment dropped in February, dropping from 106 in January to 102.9, far below the anticipated 108.5. The US Dollar suffered as a result. In addition, the Chicago PMI business poll for February came in lower than expected, and the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national house price index rose only 5.8% year over year and dropped 0.5% in December.

 

Expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy will be heavily influenced by the US Nonfarm Payrolls employment statistics for February, which will be published on March 10, and the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on March 14. The ISM manufacturing PMI will likely continue to represent the sector's fragility in February (market expectation: 45.5), according to analysts at Westpac, and the final assessment of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI will probably support this as well. "Weaker demand is expected to keep construction spending down in January (market consensus: 0.2%);" Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will also speak.


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