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On April 26, UBS said that the current market thinking is consistent with the banks basic forecast, that is, tariffs will be reduced from the current announced level for the rest of the year, and the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates this year. However, as uncertainty in trade, economy and Federal Reserve policy remains high, expected volatility also remains high. However, UBS believes that the US stock market is attractive, and the S&P 500 index target continues to be 5,800 points by the end of the year. UBSs current basic forecast is that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 to 100 basis points this year, but in the short term, the Feds policy flexibility seems more limited because it must balance concerns about economic growth with the risk of inflation recovery.According to AFP: Senior officials said that Ukrainian President Zelensky and US President Trump may meet in Rome.Spokesman for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Rome to attend the Popes funeral.According to the Ukrainian National News Agency: Russian troops launched 414 attacks in the Zaporizhia region at night.Market news: Ukrainian President Zelensky and his wife arrived in Rome.

Bulls in EUR / USD Have Taken Out Significant Lows, Dropping Below 1.0570 So Far

Alina Haynes

Mar 01, 2023 11:51

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On Tuesday, the EUR / USD exchange rate hit a bottom of 1.0573, but that was not the only development. Early in the day, higher-than-expected French inflation figures drew investors to the Euro, driving short-term euro zone yields to their greatest levels in at least a decade. Then, at the start of the US trading session, the pair increased to 1.0645 as US data showed that, in contrast to several prior inflationary results, the Fed's rate rises were starting to have the intended impact.

 

According to ANZ Bank analysts, "Base effects from Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year should start to push annual inflation down from March, but the ECB will be mainly worried with consecutive monthly inflation rises." Inflation statistics for Germany and the euro zone will be released soon, giving the Governing Council meeting in March a more comprehensive inflation picture.

 

Unexpectedly, the US Consumer Sentiment dropped in February, dropping from 106 in January to 102.9, far below the anticipated 108.5. The US Dollar suffered as a result. In addition, the Chicago PMI business poll for February came in lower than expected, and the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national house price index rose only 5.8% year over year and dropped 0.5% in December.

 

Expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate policy will be heavily influenced by the US Nonfarm Payrolls employment statistics for February, which will be published on March 10, and the Consumer Price Index, which will be released on March 14. The ISM manufacturing PMI will likely continue to represent the sector's fragility in February (market expectation: 45.5), according to analysts at Westpac, and the final assessment of the S&P Global manufacturing PMI will probably support this as well. "Weaker demand is expected to keep construction spending down in January (market consensus: 0.2%);" Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will also speak.


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