EUR/USD 1.02981
0.088%
Gold 2714.35
0.667%
Oil 77.818
-1.637%
USD/JPY 155.146
-0.847%
GBP/USD 1.22408
0.027%
GBP/JPY 189.831
-0.819%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
January 17th, Mark Carney, 59, announced on Thursday that he will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party, seeking to succeed the current Prime Minister Trudeau. Carney said he wants to focus on the troubled economy and portray himself as an outsider who does not belong to the Trudeau government. But the opposition Conservative Party said there is no difference between Carney and Trudeau. "As a long-time Liberal Party insider, Carney has served as an adviser to Trudeau at least as early as 2020 and is definitely not an outsider." Carneys main competitor appears to be former Finance Minister Freeland, who resigned last month due to policy differences. The new prime minister is unlikely to stay in office for long, and the minority government may be overthrown in Parliament as early as the end of March, triggering a general election. Polls show that the Conservatives will win the election. Carney served as governor of the Bank of Canada in 2007 and governor of the Bank of England in 2013, becoming the first person to head two major central banks at the same time.Western Digital Corp (WDC.O) forecast second-quarter revenue in the middle of the $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion range.As of the week ending January 9, foreign central banks held U.S. Treasuries worth $24.266 billion, compared with -$30.339 billion in the previous week.On January 17, since the beginning of the year, reporters have noticed that some banks, including foreign banks, are shifting their marketing focus to structured deposits. Depending on the performance of the linked target, the yields of different structured deposits are different, and the highest annualized yield of some products exceeds 5%. The reporter consulted several bank account managers and learned that structured deposits refer to deposits embedded with financial derivatives absorbed by banks, which link the product yield to specific financial indicators such as exchange rates, precious metal prices, and stock prices. Investors are expected to obtain products with higher yields on the basis of bearing certain risks. During the investigation, several financial managers told reporters that unlike general deposits, structured deposits have certain investment risks, and investors should invest with caution. In addition, the past performance of structured deposits does not represent future performance, nor is it equal to the actual yield of the product.January 17, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed that the Federal Reserve is not under immediate pressure to stop reducing its holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The report said that as of January 7, its recently launched reserve demand elasticity indicator remained basically stable compared with recent readings, at -0.04, and said that "estimates show that reserves are still ample." For the Federal Reserve, ample reserve levels mean that liquidity in the financial system is still strong enough, and the Federal Reserve can continue to reduce its balance sheet by not reinvesting the funds raised after some of its holdings of Treasury bonds and MBS expire. The reserve demand elasticity indicator helps measure liquidity conditions and can provide early warning of shortages, thereby providing ample preparation time. The Federal Reserve has also slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening and established a mechanism called the Standing Repo Facility to provide fast funds to eligible banks to quickly resolve any problems in the market.

Bear Market Leading Indicator Signals Potential Sharp Move Ahead

Cory Russell

May 09, 2022 10:56


微信截图_20220418111005.png


In January 2022, the S&P 500 dropped more than 10%, which was seen as an indication of weakness because to a Wyckoff distribution topping formation. Nonetheless, this leading indicator – Russell 2000 around the end of November 2021, at least 1 month before the S&P 500 had a steep plunge of more than 10% - offered many red signals as an early warning.


In 2019, the Russell 2000 will be a bearish leading indicator.


Russell 2000 failed the backup action from September 26 to October 1, 2019, with a break down, test, and confirmation (highlighted in orange circle) of the intermediate support level at 1700, while the S&P 500 attempted a breakout, as indicated in the chart below.


With a bearish momentum bar (second orange circle) on 10 October 2019, Russell 2000 dropped below the support of the swing low at 1630, but S&P 500 failed to break out. As the Russell 2000 led the market down, these two incidents acted as early warning signs of market weakness.


Following that, the Russell 2000 fell below the 1460 support level, tested the support-turned-resistance level, and then reversed from 7-14 December 2019 (third orange circle) to begin the Christmas selloff. Despite the S&P 500 testing support, the Russell 2000 collapse was a leading signal (highlighted in orange circle). Similar to Russell 2000, the S&P 500 eventually broke down and had a 10% selloff in six sessions.


With Russell 2000, you may anticipate the S&P 500's selloff.


As illustrated in the chart below, Russell 2000 futures suffered a failure of backup action on November 26, 2021, when the negative momentum bar (highlighted in orange circles) committed below the resistance-turned-support around 2310.


The failure was notable since it sparked the greatest down wave inside the trading range of 2100-2300. The down wave's large supply was an indication of weakness, since there was distribution on the way down, signaling the start of distribution.


This is a variant of the typical Wyckoff distribution pattern, in which the bearish bias emerges immediately after the first evidence of weakness. To learn how to analyze the bearish structure with volume and when it will be breached, watch the Wyckoff distribution analysis video for the S&P 500.


S&P 500 futures only started to develop a distribution structure as a topping formation, whereas Russell 2000 formed the initial hint of weakness (annotated as SOW0) followed by a re-distribution structure. The Russell 2000 led the way down before the S&P 500 as small cap equities were spread, which was the first red signal.


The second red flag as an early warning of the market selloff came on January 18, 2022, when Russell 2000 broke down from the re-distribution structure (annotated in pink rectangle), which also coincided with the support level at 2100 from the broad trading range that began in March 2021.


Following the break down, another wave of selling (annotated as SOW1) began in Russell 2000, while the S&P 500 saw its first correction (annotated as SOW0) of more than 10% off the top.


From January 24, 2022 until the present, another probable re-distribution structure has emerged. Russell 2000 broke down support at 1900 in the last two weeks, followed by two unsuccessful efforts to rally back up, while the S&P 500 was still testing the support region, which was identical to the scenario described above for 2019. Russell 2000 has issued yet another early warning about market weakness.

Suggestion