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On July 10th, New York Fed Open Markets Account Manager Perry stated that there is no predetermined path for reserve management purchases, and the New York Feds open market trading desk can adjust the purchase volume upwards or downwards based on money market conditions. Furthermore, Perry indicated that the trading desk is prepared to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks that the committee may decide to pursue, coinciding with Fed Chairman Warshs appointment of a working group on the Feds balance sheet. The Fed began reserve management purchases last December due to anticipated rapid reserve outflows in April, driven by tax revenue inflows into the Treasurys general account. When the Treasurys bank account balances at the Fed increase, bank system reserves decrease.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated her willingness to discuss the joint EU borrowing proposal put forward by Spain, emphasizing that the digital euro will not replace cash. Negotiations are still ongoing.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: I will not run for the French presidential election.July 10th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold futures contract rose 1.31% to 902 yuan/gram, the Shanghai Silver futures contract rose 3.22% to 14,693 yuan/kilogram, and the SC Crude Oil futures contract fell 3.22% to 465 yuan/barrel.July 10th - As of 2:30 PM closing, the Shanghai Gold Futures main contract rose 1.31%, the Shanghai Silver Futures main contract rose 3.22%, and the SC Crude Oil main contract fell 3.22%.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.

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