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On November 14th, CICC released a report stating that Bilibili (09626.HK) reported a 5% year-on-year revenue increase to RMB 7.69 billion in the third quarter, exceeding CICCs forecast of RMB 7.61 billion. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB 787 million, better than CICCs forecast of RMB 563 million, mainly benefiting from rapid growth in advertising revenue and better-than-expected gross margin performance. Based on the improving gross margin trend, CICC raised its 2025 and 2026 net profit forecasts for Bilibili by 7.8% and 2.3% respectively, to RMB 2.44 billion and RMB 3.06 billion. CICC raised its target prices for Bilibilis US-listed shares and H-shares by 7.4% and 7.8% respectively, to US$29 and HK$220, maintaining its "Outperform" rating.November 14th - It was learned on the 13th local time that Trinidad and Tobagos Attorney General John Jeremy stated that the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit will "intensify exercises" in the country "in the coming days." In late October, Venezuelan President Maduro announced the suspension of progress on a natural gas cooperation agreement with Trinidad and Tobago. Maduro stated that this decision was in response to Trinidad and Tobagos support for the USs so-called "anti-drug" operations in the Caribbean. Trinidad and Tobago are separated from Venezuela by the Gulf of Paria, with their coastlines at their closest point only about 10 kilometers apart.On November 14th, the overnight SHIBOR was 1.3630%, up 4.80 basis points; the 7-day SHIBOR was 1.4680%, down 0.60 basis points; the 14-day SHIBOR was 1.5090%, up 0.90 basis points; the 1-month SHIBOR was 1.5180%, unchanged from the previous trading day; and the 3-month SHIBOR was 1.5800%, unchanged from the previous trading day.JD.com (09618.HK) fell more than 5%, with the companys Q3 revenue reaching RMB 299.059 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%.On November 14th, Goldman Sachs stated that global oil demand growth will continue for longer than previously expected, driven by strong energy demand. Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) softened its forecast that oil demand was nearing its peak. In a report published Thursday, Goldman Sachs analysts Yulia Grigsby and Daan Struyven wrote that global oil demand will grow from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day in 2040. The bank had predicted last year that demand would peak in 2034, but also noted that the peak could be delayed by six years due to the slowdown in the adoption of electric vehicles. Goldman Sachs attributed its revised peak demand forecast to bottlenecks in low-carbon technologies and infrastructure, as well as the growth in energy demand. The bank pointed out that after a prolonged plateau in oil demand from road transportation, petrochemical products will become a key driver of oil consumption, with the aviation industry also making a significant contribution. However, Goldman Sachs also warned that long-term oil demand forecasts are highly uncertain and often subject to significant revisions, with the main risks stemming from the accelerated progress of low-carbon technologies and the lingering impact of a potential economic recession.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.