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On January 9th, RJ Gallo, Deputy Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at Federated Hermes, stated in a report that at the start of 2026, both real and implied volatility in the US Treasury market has fallen to a four-year low, returning to levels typically seen before the pandemic. Disruptive factors over the past four years include inflation surging to multi-decade highs; the Federal Reserves rapid tightening of policy to suppress inflation; the Silicon Valley banking crisis; Trumps tariff announcements; and the Feds eventual easing of monetary policy amid slowing job growth. He stated, "So far, recent events have not matched the drivers of these economic uncertainties, which is good news for us."Frances November industrial production figures will be released in ten minutes.January 9th - German industrial output unexpectedly rose for the third consecutive month, further suggesting that Europes largest economy may be on the verge of recovery. Data from the German Federal Statistical Office showed that industrial output rose 0.8% month-on-month in November, exceeding market expectations, with Octobers revised increase at 2%. This growth was primarily driven by Germanys crucial automotive industry, while machinery-related companies also saw growth, helping to offset a decline in energy production. The data also showed an unexpectedly large jump in factory orders, which analysts believe is the beginning of the effects of the fiscal stimulus measures prepared by the Merz government. The slump in traditional growth drivers has led to significant job losses in German manufacturing. Now, the recovery is expected to be driven by domestic demand, and this weeks data seems to confirm this.The chart shows that at 23:00 Beijing time on January 9th, there will be large foreign exchange options contracts for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, etc. There are 3 contracts with strike prices exceeding 1 billion. Please manage your risks.The Ukrainian Foreign Minister stated that Russias repeated claims that Ukraine attacked Putins residence to justify the attack are "absurd."

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.

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