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The Indian Foreign Secretary commented on US-India relations: The trade agreement has created some uncertainty between the two countries, but it is important that we move in the right direction.June 18th - eToros Lale Akoner stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the coming months, but a rate hike cannot be ruled out. The Bank of England kept interest rates at 3.75% in its decision on Thursday, citing a weak UK economic outlook as justifying the decision. Akoner stated, "With inflation expected to remain above target into next year, the risk of another rate hike has not completely disappeared."German Defense Minister Pistorius: Putin is at a stalemate in the conflict in Ukraine.U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending June 12 were 73 billion cubic feet, compared to an expected 75 billion cubic feet and a previous reading of 108 billion cubic feet.On June 18th, analyst Colby Smith wrote that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh has remained tight-lipped about the future path of interest rates, offering almost no clear guidance. Warshs approach preserves considerable flexibility for the Feds next move, but it also adds a risk: the Fed chairman may not be able to firmly control the markets narrative regarding economic trends or central bank policy responses, leading to misunderstandings that then need clarification, thus exacerbating market volatility. Marc Giannoni, chief U.S. economist at Barclays, stated, "When you say nothing, youre essentially giving more control to the market. Ultimately, he may become frustrated with the markets assessment of the future." Warshs preferences do not seem to be shared by his colleagues. The presidents of the 12 regional Fed banks and members of the Washington Federal Reserve Board still frequently speak publicly about the economic outlook and how policy might change under specific circumstances. Vincent Reinhart, an executive at BNY Mellon Investment Management, said, "The core issue is that people with differing opinions will fill this vacuum." Reinhart expects the most active voices to be those who support rate hikes, a group that has expanded significantly in recent months.

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.

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