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Hong Kong-listed consumer stocks weakened, with Pop Mart (09992.HK) falling more than 5%, Gu Ming (01364.HK) falling more than 4%, and BRUCO (00325.HK), Laopu Gold (06181.HK), and Mixue Group (02097.HK) following suit.Futures data from October 21st revealed that as of October 20th, the mainstream benzene market in East China closed at 5,535 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton from 5,755 yuan/ton at the beginning of October. Looking at the post-holiday market, major ports in East China maintained a steady pace of destocking in early October, but concerns about crude oil oversupply intensified, with Brent crude futures falling to a five-month low and weakening market sentiment. Coupled with a lack of downstream market support, exacerbating losses, and a lack of new orders from end users, secondary downstream inventories remained high and difficult to reduce, creating significant price transmission resistance. The market may face downward pressure in late October.Futures News, October 21st: Crude oil prices have recently continued to decline, with overall weakness predominating. Market concerns are mounting about a global oil glut. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has been increasing crude oil production, albeit at a slower pace, but the cumulative increase has been significant. On the other hand, the US has entered its seasonal off-season, resulting in lower oil demand and significant pressure on oil inventory. Zhuochuang Information predicts that the decline in oil prices reflects the realization of some negative factors. The market is focused on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations. Current market news suggests expectations for a deal are stronger than previously anticipated, potentially providing support for oil prices. Whether this can stabilize remains to be seen.The Hang Seng Tech Index continued its strong performance, rising over 3%. Tech stocks performed strongly, with Bilibili (09626.HK) rising nearly 10%. The Hang Seng Index is now up nearly 2%.On October 21, it was learned from the Ministry of Natural Resources that due to the influence of strong cold air and this years No. 24 typhoon "Fengshen" (strong tropical storm level), the National Marine Forecasting Center continued to issue an orange alert for waves and a yellow alert for storm surges at 08:00 on October 21 in accordance with the "Marine Disaster Emergency Plan".

S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 Stumbling on The Edge of a Cliff

Skylar Shaw

May 09, 2022 10:53


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The monthly US Jobs Report (NFP) will be announced at 12:30 UK today, with the market expecting 391k new jobs in April, down from 431k in March. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.5 percent, while average hourly earnings are expected to stay constant at 0.4 percent month over month. The US employment market is strong, and unless today's news disappoints, traders will continue to price in higher US interest rates, keeping the US dollar bought. Both John Williams and Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve will talk later today, and they may provide some further insight on the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

 

The 500 chart demonstrates how technical analysis may be useful even in turbulent times. The bullish hammer candle we saw on Monday led to a big comeback until yesterday's sell-off, while the resistance zone we saw around 4,300–4,310 maintained on Wednesday and Thursday. If 4,060 holds, the S&P 500 will have a chance to rebound in the near term; otherwise, 4,035 will come into play quite rapidly. Any efforts to go higher should be met with resistance in the 4,300–4,310 range. Volatility is still at an all-time high.

 

According to retail trader statistics, 68.09 percent of traders are net-long, with a long-to-short ratio of 2.13 to 1. The number of traders who are net-long is up 18.01 percent from yesterday and up 16.33 percent from last week, while those who are net-short is down 26.33 percent from yesterday and 14.60 percent from last week.


We usually take the other side of popular mood, and the fact that traders are net-long signals that the US 500 will continue to decline. Traders are more net-long today than they were yesterday and last week, and the combination of current mood and previous movements gives us a greater contrarian trading bias in the US 500.

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