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US President Trump: The US and Iran will meet this weekend.On April 18th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that he is cautious about the need for interest rate cuts in the near term due to the energy shock caused by the war with Iran, and warned that the conflict could have a lasting impact on inflation. In his speech, Waller outlined two main scenarios. In the first scenario, if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and trade flows return to normal, officials will be able to ignore the surge in energy prices and shift their focus later this year to the weak labor market. He stated that if this scenario occurs, "I think one prospect is that underlying inflation will continue to decline toward the 2% target, which would make me cautious about cutting rates now and more inclined to support the labor market through rate cuts later this year when the outlook is more stable." However, he warned that oil prices and the overall market are underestimating the risks of a prolonged conflict. "On the inflation front, the risk is that the longer the conflict lasts and the longer energy prices remain high, the greater the likelihood that these high prices will permeate into other prices, as businesses will factor in the high costs of energy inputs when pricing." He stated that if this scenario occurs against the backdrop of a weak labor market, it will limit policy options. In this scenario, he would weigh the risks of higher inflation against a weaker labor market. "If the risks of inflation outweigh the risks of the labor market, it could mean keeping the policy rate in its current target range."Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: High energy costs are squeezing consumer and business investment. We will not allow rising energy prices to translate into sustained inflation.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: We do not want to raise interest rates too early, but we are aware of the associated risks.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem: There remains “considerable uncertainty” regarding the continued impact on tanker shipping.

Another Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude Inventories Decreased Oil Prices by 1%

Charlie Brooks

Jan 19, 2023 11:04

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Oil prices fell on Thursday as industry data revealed a large, unexpected increase in U.S. oil stocks for a second week, raising concerns about a decrease in fuel consumption.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures fell 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $78.62 per barrel at 01:09 GMT, while Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $84.25 per barrel, extending losses of over 1% from Wednesday.


The market fell due to fears of an impending U.S. economic crisis after Federal Reserve members declared that rates needed to rise over 5% to control inflation, despite statistics showing that December retail sales were less than anticipated.


Analysts from ANZ Research noted in a client note, "This elevated the possibility of a recession, resulting in a decreased appetite for risk."


According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil inventories climbed by approximately 7.6 million barrels in the week ending January 13.


According to nine analysts polled by Reuters, oil inventories declined by an average of 600,000 barrels.


This is the second week in a row that major inventory increases have occurred.


In contrast to forecasts of a 120,000-barrel increase, inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by almost 1.8 million barrels.


Monday's Martin Luther King Day holiday in the United States resulted in a one-day delay for the API report. Thursday will see the release of the weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.


With aggressive rate hikes still a possibility, the U.S. dollar surged, further reducing oil demand because a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for foreign currency holders.