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On May 8th, a team led by Michael Hartnett of Bank of America stated that U.S. stocks are on the verge of recording double-digit gains for the fourth consecutive year, a rare occurrence that has only happened a handful of times in history. The S&P 500 currently corresponds to an annualized gain of approximately 20%. Such sustained rallies have previously only occurred during World War II, the years of peace following the war, and the bubble phase of 1995-1999. The latest surge, fueled by a frenzy of capital spending on artificial intelligence, has further propelled the stock market, but the gains have been very narrow. Now, other sectors are also beginning to show stronger upward momentum. Hartnett and his team believe that, supported by the resilience of the U.S. economy, small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and commodities are "all approaching a long-term bull market turning point." The Bank of America team expects materials stocks to be among the next strong performers. Although this sector currently accounts for only 2% of the S&P 500, near a 30-year low, this is expected to change. Geopolitical competition over resources, increased military spending, the surge in capital expenditures on artificial intelligence, and efforts to address the housing shortage will make the materials sector a "new bull market protagonist."Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook declined to comment on the economic or monetary policy outlook while speaking at a digital asset conference in Senegal.May 8th - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered a major early defeat in Fridays election, highlighting strong voter dissatisfaction with his government and casting a shadow over his political future. In regions where results have been announced, Starmers Labour Party saw a significant drop in support, including traditional strongholds in the former industrial areas of central and northern England, as well as parts of London. The main beneficiary of the election was Nigel Farages anti-immigrant populist Reform Party, which won over 200 seats in England and is poised to become the main opposition force to the pro-independence Scottish National Party and the Party of Wales in Scotland and Wales. The elections in Englands 136 local councils, along with those in Scotland and Wales, represent the most crucial test of public opinion before the next general election in 2029. Labour MPs have stated that if the party performs poorly in Scotland, loses power in Wales, and fails to retain its majority of approximately 2,500 uncontested seats in England, Starmer will face renewed pressure to resign or set a timetable for his departure. Preliminary results indicate that Britains traditional two-party system is continuing to crumble, transitioning towards a multi-party democracy, which analysts call one of the biggest changes British politics has undergone in the past century.Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak in ten minutes.Market news: Baidus (09888.HK) chip division, Kunlun Core, plans to list in Hong Kong with a target valuation of US$14.7 billion.

Another Unexpected Increase in U.S. Crude Inventories Decreased Oil Prices by 1%

Charlie Brooks

Jan 19, 2023 11:04

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Oil prices fell on Thursday as industry data revealed a large, unexpected increase in U.S. oil stocks for a second week, raising concerns about a decrease in fuel consumption.


U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil futures fell 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $78.62 per barrel at 01:09 GMT, while Brent crude futures fell 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $84.25 per barrel, extending losses of over 1% from Wednesday.


The market fell due to fears of an impending U.S. economic crisis after Federal Reserve members declared that rates needed to rise over 5% to control inflation, despite statistics showing that December retail sales were less than anticipated.


Analysts from ANZ Research noted in a client note, "This elevated the possibility of a recession, resulting in a decreased appetite for risk."


According to data from the American Petroleum Institute, U.S. crude oil inventories climbed by approximately 7.6 million barrels in the week ending January 13.


According to nine analysts polled by Reuters, oil inventories declined by an average of 600,000 barrels.


This is the second week in a row that major inventory increases have occurred.


In contrast to forecasts of a 120,000-barrel increase, inventories of distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, declined by almost 1.8 million barrels.


Monday's Martin Luther King Day holiday in the United States resulted in a one-day delay for the API report. Thursday will see the release of the weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration.


With aggressive rate hikes still a possibility, the U.S. dollar surged, further reducing oil demand because a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for foreign currency holders.