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On February 24, two U.S. officials said that Yemens Houthi rebels fired surface-to-air missiles at a U.S. fighter jet and MQ-9 Reaper drone this week, but neither hit. The officials did not specify whether the attacks took place over the Red Sea or in Yemen. One of them said the incidents may indicate that the Houthis are improving their ability to hit targets.Futures News on February 24: Last Friday, the international commodity market generally fell, and the performance of crude oil can be described as diving, with a drop of more than 3%. 1. Obviously, even though crude oil has risen for several days before, it is still not a variety suitable for strong thinking. The latest data shows that the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased by 7, indicating that Trump will implement his previous promise to reduce energy prices by increasing production, thereby easing inflation. At the same time, senior officials from the United States and Russia have recently had a series of positive contacts. In addition to the war issue, the repair of bilateral relations between the two countries is also discussed as a core issue. This will obviously make the market believe that the relationship between the two countries will warm up, and Russias previous crude oil export sanctions will be gradually lifted. Once the support from the supply side fades, oil prices will easily fall. After all, in the context of the transformation of the global energy industry, the market and major institutions are not very optimistic about the demand prospects for crude oil. The recent rumor that OPEC+ will postpone the production increase plan again is actually a good confirmation. 2. Then, for the 04 contract of WTI crude oil, we need to focus on whether $70 can be held. For the 04 contract of Brent crude oil, $74 is a very important price barrier. Once it cannot be held and is broken downward, it is a pattern signal in technical analysis that the decline may continue.On February 24, the article stated that innovation is endless and policy support also needs to be continuously optimized. There is still room for improvement in the intensity and efficiency of fiscal and taxation forces to support scientific and technological innovation. In terms of intensity, we will coordinate financial resources, increase investment in science and technology, further focus on basic research and national strategic scientific and technological tasks, and fully support the key core technology research. In terms of efficiency, we will deepen the reform of the mechanism for the allocation and use of fiscal science and technology funds, improve the performance of fund use, and give full play to the leverage effect of fiscal funds. Research and improve the structural tax reduction and fee reduction policies that focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and the development of the manufacturing industry, study the tax system that is compatible with the new business format, promote policies that are more in line with the demands of the market and enterprises, improve the accuracy of policies, promote the direct and quick enjoyment of policy dividends, and help enterprises innovate and develop.According to German news today: Lindner, chairman of the German Free Democratic Party, announced his withdrawal from politics.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated the CDU/CSU and Merz on their victory in the German Bundestag election.

"La Nina" may aggravate the Asian energy crisis, OPEC+ still has a slim chance to increase production

Oct 25, 2021 13:53

On Monday (October 25), U.S. oil prices continued to rise, continuing the pre-weekend rally. U.S. crude oil hit a seven-year high. As the economies of various countries recover from the landslide caused by the new crown epidemic and promote strong demand, global supply is still tight. The approach of "La Nina" may further aggravate the Asian energy crisis. The Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia once again released a conservative stance over the weekend, making the market's prospects for OPEC+ production increase even slimmer.


Saudi Arabia said OPEC+ should maintain a cautious policy on supply


Saudi Energy Minister Abdul Aziz bin Salman said in a television interview over the weekend that oil-producing countries should not take oil price increases for granted. This conservative position has been echoed by Nigeria and Azerbaijan.

Oil prices have more than doubled in the past 12 months, adding to inflation concerns. Despite the surge in demand, OPEC and its allies have shown considerable restraint in increasing production. This boosted Brent oil prices to their highest level since 2018.

Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at ING Groep NV, said: “Saudi’s comments reinforce OPEC+’s view that OPEC+ will adhere to a prudent policy. While demand appears to increase, this means that market supply will continue to be tight for the rest of this year.”

"La Nina" is approaching, the cold winter may exacerbate the energy crisis in Asia


La Nina, which usually leads to colder winters, is approaching and is expected to exacerbate the energy crisis in Asia.

The La Niña phenomenon has already appeared in the Pacific. This usually means that the temperature in the northern hemisphere is below normal and prompts regional meteorological agencies to issue warnings about cold winters.

Several countries, especially China, the largest energy consumer, are coping with soaring oil prices, and some countries are facing power shortages or heavy industries facing supply constraints. Coal and natural gas prices are already high, and colder winters will increase heating demand, which may stimulate further price increases.

"We expect the temperature in Northeast Asia to be lower than normal this winter," said Renny Vandewege, vice president of meteorological operations at data provider DTN. "Weather forecast data is a key component of predicting how much energy load is needed."

The National Climate Center expects China to enter La Niña in October. Japan earlier predicted that the probability of La Niña during autumn and winter was 60%.

September crude oil processing at Indian refineries increased due to strong demand


Government data on Friday showed that crude oil production at Indian refineries rose slightly from the previous month in September, as refineries increased their production to meet the surge in demand.

The refinery processed 4.45 million barrels (18.21 million tons) of crude oil per day last month, up from 4.36 million barrels per day in August.

Refinitiv analyst Ehsan Ul Haq said: “The refinery has been increasing production to meet demand during the holiday season. Compared to previous months, as people travel more during the holiday season, demand is expected to increase.”

India's Reliance Industries Ltd is the operator of the world's largest oil refinery. Its oil imports in September increased by nearly 12% compared to August, reaching 1.2 million barrels per day.

As economic activity continues to heat up, India’s fuel consumption climbed in September, but the surge in global oil prices poses a threat to the recovery of the world’s third largest oil importer and consumer.

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