With constant news of energy shortages, oil prices have risen by more than 9% this month and climbed for six consecutive quarters

On Thursday (September 30), oil distribution rose 0.33 US dollars, or 0.42%, to close at 78.36 US dollars per barrel. This month’s cumulative increase was 9.29%, the largest monthly increase since February. U.S. oil rose 0.29 US dollars, or 0.39%, to close at 75.12 US dollars per barrel. This month’s cumulative increase was 9.65%, the largest monthly increase since June. At the same time, the New York Port ultra-low sulfur diesel futures closed at the highest level since October 2018 for the second day in a row. There was news that Asian consumer powers had ordered the country’s largest state-owned energy companies to ensure supply this winter at all costs, while the White House reiterated its concerns about price increases, and that oil prices were turbulent on the last trading day.

US White House Press Secretary Jennifer Psaki said that rising oil prices are an issue that worries the United States. US National Security Adviser Sullivan plans to discuss oil prices with Saudi Arabia and said that the United States has communicated with OPEC on oil prices.

At the same time, according to sources, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the oil-producing allies (OPEC+) will consider other options besides the existing agreement to increase production by 400,000 barrels a day when they meet next week, in order to deal with oil prices approaching a three-year high. And the pressure from consumer countries to increase supply. Four OPEC+ sources said that it is possible to further increase oil production, but no one gave a specific amount or specific month. A source said that the oil market may need more oil than the existing agreement, which is "one of the possible scenarios." Another OPEC+ source said that there may be an increase of 800,000 barrels per day in the next month, and there may be no increase in production in the next month. Since the OPEC+ last meeting decided on the October output, the fastest month to increase production is November.

It is still unclear what caused this change in tone, but before that, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) held a meeting to assess the market prospects, and it is expected that under its basic scenario forecast, the oil market will appear 140 next year. The surplus of 10,000 barrels per day is slightly lower than the previously predicted surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day. Prior to the OPEC+ online meeting on October 4, negotiations between member states continued, and there was no guarantee that they would agree to additional production increases. The energy ministers of OPEC member states of Iraq, Nigeria and the UAE have said in recent weeks that the organization does not see the need for special measures to change existing agreements.

Royal Bank of Canada analyst Helima Croft said in the report that increasing production by more than 400,000 barrels per day is a viable option for OPEC+. RBC analyst Helima Croft said in the report that given that oil prices are at a high level for several years, we believe that Washington will increase efforts to pressure OPEC to increase production. We believe that an increase of more than 400,000 barrels per day is a viable option on Monday. At the very least, we can expect that if market conditions tighten significantly, the leadership will hint that they are willing to increase the supply of more crude oil. OPEC+ will hold a meeting on October 4 and evaluate plans to further increase output by 400,000 barrels per day.

Sources said that Asian consumer powers ordered the country's largest state-owned energy companies to ensure supply this winter at all costs. It will maintain the stability of the industrial chain supply chain, ensure the supply of energy and power, guarantee basic people's livelihood, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range. The country is the world's largest crude oil importer and second largest consumer.

(Hourly chart of oil distribution)