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On May 28th, Tencents Hunyuan announced the official launch of Hy-Memory. According to reports, this is a memory plugin specifically designed for long-term collaborative agents like Openclaw, truly becoming the agents "second brain."On May 28th, Federal Reserve Chairman Mohamed Mussaleem stated that policymakers cannot expect a potential productivity boom driven by artificial intelligence to alleviate persistently high inflation. Mussaleem noted, "I think it would be risky to rely on improved future productivity growth prospects to solve our current inflation problem." The conflict with Iran has reignited upward pressure on prices and prompted more policymakers to warn that further interest rate hikes may be necessary if inflation remains high. Mussaleem warned that, after adjusting for inflation, the Feds benchmark interest rate is currently below the so-called "neutral level"—a level that neither inhibits nor stimulates the economy. He also pointed out that the labor market remains stable, inflation is "significantly above" the Feds 2% target, and long-term inflation expectations are "gradually rising."The U.S. EIA natural gas storage figures for the week ending May 22 will be released in ten minutes.US Treasury bonds continued to rise; the 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.43%.On May 28th, according to two US officials speaking to Axios, US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at extending the ceasefire and initiating negotiations on Irans nuclear program; however, Trump has not yet given final approval, requesting a few days to consider it. Signing the memorandum of understanding would be the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the outbreak of the war, but further intensive negotiations are still needed to reach a final agreement addressing Trumps nuclear demands. US officials stated that the 60-day memorandum of understanding will stipulate that navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will be "unrestricted." One US official said this means no tolls will be charged, and no harassment will be carried out; Iran must clear all mines from the strait within 30 days. Another US official stated that the US maritime blockade will also be lifted, but this process will proceed in proportion to the progress of the resumption of commercial shipping. Officials indicated that the memorandum of understanding will include a commitment from Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. The memorandum will also stipulate that the primary negotiating topic during the 60-day window will be how to handle Irans highly enriched uranium and how to respond to Irans uranium enrichment activities. As part of the negotiations, the United States pledged to discuss lifting sanctions and unfreezing Iranian funds. The memorandum of understanding will also include discussions on establishing a mechanism to help Iran begin receiving material and humanitarian aid.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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