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February 9th - As concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting business models continue to escalate, hedge funds have significantly increased their short positions in US stocks. Goldman Sachs prime brokerage team stated in a client report that last weeks nominal short selling of a single stock reached its highest level since the bank began collecting data in 2016. The team cited fund flows from January 30th to February 5th, noting that short selling volume was twice that of long buying. Market anxiety about how AI will reshape the economy triggered a turbulent week on Wall Street. The combined market capitalization of 164 stocks in the software, financial services, and asset management sectors evaporated by $611 billion last week. Overall, hedge funds have been net sellers of US stocks for the fourth consecutive week, with the selling pace at its fastest since the so-called "Liberation Day" in early April. The Goldman Sachs team pointed out that the information technology sector was the hardest hit, with net outflows reaching the second highest level in the past five years. Software stocks led the decline, accounting for approximately 75% of the sectors net selling. Hedge funds total net exposure to software stocks fell to 2.6%, and the long-short ratio dropped to 1.3—both record lows.Sources say that as of February 8, production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan, which is dominated by Chevron (CVX.N), has recovered to about 60% of its peak production (about 550,000 barrels per day).Futures Market Summary | Monday, February 9th, CCTV News Highlights: 1. Creating and sharing a better life paints a picture of happiness and peoples livelihood. 2. Li Qiang signed a State Council decree promulgating the revised "Regulations of the Peoples Republic of China on Nature Reserves". 3. With the Spring Festival approaching, the festive atmosphere is strong across the country. 4. Spring Festival travel rush continues to grow, with key areas increasing nighttime transportation capacity. 5. Liu Yanying: Taking a steady path to rural revitalization and increasing income. 6. Sales of old cars traded in for new ones will exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026. 7. Soaring in the blue sky of the motherland, protecting the lights of thousands of homes. 8. The goal of "achieving results in five years" for the revitalization of the seed industry has been successfully completed. 9. Foreign-invested enterprises increase investment in China at the beginning of the year. 10. Several young Chinese athletes make their Winter Olympics debut. 11. The turnover of the national futures trading market in January increased by 105.14% year-on-year. 12. The Office of the National Disaster Prevention, Reduction and Relief Commission deployed natural disaster risk prevention and control work in February. 13. Central state-owned enterprises Spring Festival consumption assistance campaign has exceeded 800 million yuan in procurement. 14. The number of first-instance criminal cases related to environmental resources continues to decline. 15. Several new regulations have been introduced to strengthen the safety supervision of road transportation of liquid food. 16. The 2026 Spring Festival film lineup was released in Beijing. 17. More than 1,500 suspects involved in telecom fraud in Myawaddy, Myanmar, have been extradited back to China. 18. The Iranian president stated that Iran will not tolerate threats of force; the Iranian military stated that it is fully prepared to retaliate against any act of aggression. 19. Russia claims to have controlled more settlements in Koh Samui and other areas; Ukraine claims to have attacked a Russian drone control center; Russia claims the suspect in the attack on a Russian general admitted to being directed by Ukraine; Ukraine denies involvement in the attack. 20. Palestine condemns Israels escalation of its annexation of the West Bank. 21. Protests continue in many parts of the US against federal immigration enforcement actions. 22. Severe weather continues, with floods spreading in Spain and Portugal. 23. Shootings have occurred in multiple locations in the US, resulting in casualties.Novo Nordisk (NVO.N) announced the launch of a share buyback program with a maximum repurchase amount of 15 billion Danish kroner.The U.S. Department of Defense stated that the vessel violated quarantine regulations in the Caribbean Sea.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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