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February 9th - A survey closely watched by the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy Committee shows that while employers continued to reduce hiring for long-term positions in January, the pace of reduction slowed to its lowest level in 18 months. The survey, conducted by the Recruiting and Employment Confederation (REC), also showed that businesses increased the number of temporary workers deployed for the first time since October last year. Neil Carberry, CEO of REC, said: "As we head into 2026, there are increasing signs that uncertainty about hiring plans is translating into action. This doesnt mean a full-blown hiring rebound, but the wait-and-see period seems to be coming to an end." This REC report further supports the view that the UK economy is poised for a turnaround in 2026. A recent S&P survey showed that business expansion in January hit a 17-month high; a report from the Institute of Directors also indicated that executives are more optimistic about the outlook for sales, hiring, and investment.Jun Mimura, Japans top foreign exchange official: We are closely monitoring foreign exchange trends with a high sense of urgency.The yield on Japans 30-year government bonds rose 6.5 basis points to 3.615%.Japans December trade balance will be released in ten minutes.February 9th - Data released on Monday showed that Japans real wages contracted for the 12th consecutive month in December, as nominal wage growth lagged slightly behind slowing consumer inflation. Following the Bank of Japans 25 basis point rate hike to 0.75% in December, wage trends have become one of the most important indicators for deciding the timing of the next rate hike. As a key indicator of consumer purchasing power, inflation-adjusted real wages fell 0.1% year-on-year in December. This continues the contraction that began in January 2025, although the decline has narrowed to its lowest level since the start of this contraction cycle. Full-year data released on Monday showed that Japans real wages will fall by 1.3% in 2025. This marks the fourth consecutive year of contraction in real annual wages since consumer inflation began exceeding the Bank of Japans 2% target in 2022.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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