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March 28 – According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has begun limiting the use of its most advanced missile interceptors due to depleted stockpiles caused by ongoing Iranian attacks, forcing the IDF to increasingly rely on upgraded but less capable interceptor systems. Recently, two Iranian missiles struck the southern cities of Dimona and Arad after a failed interception attempt using a modified, lower-level system. Israels air defense system has long been considered one of the most advanced in the world, but has so far relied heavily on the Arrow system to counter long-range ballistic missile threats. However, officials are now limiting the use of these high-end interceptors, turning instead to upgraded versions of the Davids Sling (Israels medium- and long-range air defense system) and even the Iron Dome system, which were not originally designed to deal with such threats.On March 28, Iraqi Electricity Ministry spokesman Ahmed Abadi stated that Iran had halted natural gas supplies to southern Iraq since the evening of March 27, after a previous daily supply of 10 million cubic meters. Abadi added that Iran is also currently limiting its natural gas supplies to central Iraq to 10 million cubic meters per day. He noted that the ongoing instability in the region is impacting oil extraction, production, and exports within Iraq. The Iraqi Electricity Ministry is closely monitoring the situation to ensure that Irans restrictions do not affect the fuel supply needed by power plants in Iraq.On March 28, the Yemeni government issued a statement condemning Iran for dragging Yemen into the regional conflict through its supported armed forces. The statement pointed out that Iran, with the help of the Houthi rebels and other forces, is interfering in regional affairs, undermining national sovereignty, and threatening regional security. The Yemeni government believes that the Houthi actions serve Irans regional strategy. The statement warned that such actions will exacerbate Yemens humanitarian crisis and impact food and energy supplies. The government emphasized that the right to decide on war and peace belongs to the state, and any illegal military action must bear the consequences. The Yemeni government called on the people to refuse mobilization for war and urged the international community to increase pressure on the Houthi rebels and support the restoration of national power, stability, and development. Iran has not yet responded to this statement.On March 28, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued a statement saying that, as part of Operation Honest Commitment 4, the IRGC Navy and Space Force conducted strikes against multiple heavy industrial targets in the United States and Israel using missiles and drones in the 85th wave of attacks. The statement indicated that this operation was in retaliation for previous attacks by US and Israeli forces against Iranian civilian industrial facilities. During the operation, Iranian armed forces launched saturation attacks on heavy industrial centers in Israel and other regions, destroying some targets. The IRGC emphasized that if the US and Israel continue to attack Iranian industrial systems, the scale of Irans subsequent retaliation will "exceed their expectations." In addition, during the interception and counterattack operations, Iranian air defense systems shot down a US-made MQ-9 drone over Shiraz. A US F-16 fighter jet was hit in southern Fars province and subsequently crashed while en route to an emergency landing at a base in Saudi Arabia.March 28 (Wall Street Journal) – Energy analysts warn that the oil market could face even greater turmoil if the Houthi rebels in Yemen resume attacks on Red Sea shipping. A renewed attack could cut significant amounts of oil from global supply and drive up prices. Saudi Arabia has been diverting as much crude oil as possible from the Persian Gulf to its Red Sea port of Yanbu, from where cargoes are primarily destined for Asia. While this hasnt fully offset the amount of oil unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, it has helped limit the rise in global oil prices. Analysts say that if Houthi attacks make it too dangerous for tankers to approach Yanbu, millions of barrels of crude oil could be stranded daily in the Middle East. In that case, Saudi Arabia might be forced to cut production along with Kuwait and Iraq.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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