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1. US crude oil futures closed up 6.74% at $84.6 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures rose 7.35% to $88.11 per barrel. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with Iran launching a surprise attack on US troops, disrupting the ceasefire, prompting the US to respond strongly and join forces with Saudi Arabia in a counterattack, led to a sharp drop in oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a significant increase in ship insurance costs, and continued attacks by the Houthi rebels in Yemen on Saudi energy facilities and plans to collect tolls on merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. These factors significantly increased uncertainty surrounding oil supply. Meanwhile, a substantial decrease in US crude oil inventories last week, far exceeding market expectations, further supported the rise in oil prices. 2. International precious metals futures generally closed higher. 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The storage sector continued its sharp decline, with Micron Technology falling nearly 10% and SanDisk dropping over 7%. The Wind US Tech Big Seven Index fell 1.28%, with Nvidia down over 3% and Tesla down nearly 3%. SpaceX fell over 3%. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 1.73%, with New Oriental up over 15% and Li Auto up over 4%. European stock markets closed mixed: the German DAX fell 0.01% to 25460.48 points; the French CAC40 fell 0.60% to 8408.27 points; and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.34% to 10908.41 points. Middle East geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, and market sentiment was cautious ahead of the Feds interest rate decision.Artificial Intelligence: 1. The US will hold an AI summit in Lima, Peru on September 8. 2. British media: The Bank of England is investigating investment banks exposure to Asian stocks to avoid concentrated bets on AI. 3. OpenAI president responds to Apple lawsuit: We are highly innovative and do not need other company secrets. 4. OpenAI announces the launch of CHATGPT for academic researchers, which will be provided free of charge to 100,000 researchers. 5. OpenAI CFO: The companys annualized revenue in July exceeded the total for the entire second quarter. Other: 1. SpaceX wins a $1.6 billion contract from the US Space Force. 2. Metas revenue hits record highs, but AI costs drag down its stock price in after-hours trading. 3. Two major MLCC manufacturers raise prices: Samsung Electro-Mechanics to raise prices by 30% starting in August, and Taiyo Yuden to raise prices starting in September. 4. The US announces a letter of intent for $874 million in semiconductor R&D investment. 5. Yangtze Memory Technologies: The online claim that "all 19 claims of its core 3D NAND patent have been ruled invalid" is a seriously misleading description. 6. Microsofts Q4 revenue exceeded expectations at $90 billion, with Azure cloud revenue surpassing $100 billion for the first time. Microsoft expects first-quarter revenue of $90 billion and maintains positive free cash flow for the new fiscal year. A Ukrainian Interior Ministry advisor stated that Russia has launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine, targeting multiple cities, including Kyiv. Cruise missile strikes are expected soon.On July 30th, Microsoft (MSFT.O) CEO Satya Nadella emphasized that customers must have the ability to freely switch between different closed-source and open-source AI models. He told analysts on Wednesdays conference call that the number of Microsoft customers building with multiple models has quadrupled since the beginning of the year. "You have to separate your system framework from the models," Nadella said. "That means any particular model should be replaceable at any given time. You should also be able to use cutting-edge models. Theres no reason not to, but you can also use multiple models, right?" Microsoft has investments in both OpenAI and Anthropic, but last week signed an open letter with companies like Nvidia and Palantir supporting open models.Market news: Intel (INTC.O) has granted access to some technologies to startup RosaicLabs, whose CEO is a co-investor of Intels CEO in other companies.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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