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September 18th - The Iran war has led to increased fuel costs, causing global container shipping prices to continue rising. Analysts say that freight rates on some major routes may again approach or surpass the historical highs reached during the pandemic. According to data from freight pricing platform Xeneta, the spot freight rate for a 40-foot container on a major ocean container route has risen to $10,948, more than four times the rate since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 28th, approaching the historical record of $11,900 set in January 2022. Marine low-sulfur fuel oil prices have currently risen to $901.5 per ton, compared to $543.5 on February 27th, but are still below the peak of $1,053 set on March 20th. As companies accelerate inventory replenishment ahead of the traditional peak season, shipping demand may further push up freight rates. Xeneta analysts stated that with the continued rise in fuel surcharges, freight rates on relevant container routes may exceed the peaks reached during the pandemic.According to the Financial Times, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Johily will urge EU finance ministers on Friday to include the UK in the “Make in Europe” industrial policy to avoid repeating the failures of previous UK-EU defense cooperation.On September 18th, Anthropic released a new metrics system to measure the speed of AI development in its cutting-edge labs. This system aims to provide a more transparent understanding of AI model development progress by making measurement tools readily available. Anthropic stated that society needs more information to assess the speed of cutting-edge AI development. The metrics system focuses on three main aspects: the extent to which AI is involved in next-generation AI development, the ability to supervise the behavior of AI agents, and the resources invested in developing more powerful models. Among these, Anthropic established an "AI R&D Automation Index" to measure the proportion of Claudes involvement in the companys AI R&D work. As of August 2026, Claude has not yet achieved fully autonomous R&D in any measurement scope, but it has already "led" approximately 26% of Anthropics AI R&D work, with over 90% of the R&D work reaching a level of "AI collaboration" or higher.On September 18, the State Administration of Cultural Heritage of China received two batches of 64 cultural relics, artworks, and paleontological fossils returned by the United States at the Chinese Embassy in the United States and the Chinese Consulate General in New York on September 16 and 17, respectively.Anthropic: As of August 2026, Claude accounted for 26% of AI R&D usage.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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