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On April 16, White House advisor and senior Trump aide Stephen Miller stated in an interview with Fox News that the United States could continue its blockade of Iranian ports "indefinitely." Miller stated that Trump is "a peace-loving man," but added that the United States has made its position clear: "The United States will not be bullied, and the United States will never be threatened by a nuclear-armed Iran. Not now, and never." Miller stated, "A military action could completely destroy Irans energy infrastructure for generations. But Trump has made it clear that he doesnt want to do that. He hopes Iran will choose the right path to reach an agreement. This blockade is severely damaging the Iranian regimes economic strength, and the United States has the ability to maintain this blockade indefinitely, provided that Iran chooses the wrong path."Malaysian Prime Minister: Petronas has assured that Australia will be given priority once domestic demand is met.The EU climate commissioner warned that energy prices in Europe have risen “astoundingly” and there are no economic “workarounds,” and that the recent crisis demonstrates the need for green investments to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels.April 16th - The Nikkei 225 index is poised to close at a new high, erasing losses from the Iran war. Market optimism suggests new peace talks could accelerate the end of the conflict. The Nikkei 225 reached 59,549.59 points in early trading, above its all-time closing high of 58,850.27 points set on February 27th. Export-related stocks, including those in the automotive, electronics, and information technology sectors, performed well, while real estate and food stocks declined. Global markets are expected to recover to pre-Iran war levels. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit record highs. Meanwhile, the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire agreement for two weeks to allow more time for negotiations. "New information is coming in, which helps stabilize market sentiment regarding the Middle East situation," said Masaki Ito, senior strategist at Nomura Securities. He expects Japanese stocks to move in tandem with US stocks.The UK and the EU plan to begin negotiations soon to include the UK in the EU’s newly established multi-billion euro technology fund as part of efforts to reshape relations and boost the UK economy.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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