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On June 15th, former Israeli Ambassador to the US, Aaron Pincus, stated that Iran has become stronger and more confident since the war, and the regional balance facing Israel has clearly shifted unfavorably. He pointed out that by mid-June 2026, Iran will be geopolitically exponentially stronger than it was on the day the war broke out (February 28th), and has altered the regional balance during the war. Pincus warned that Iran has "upended the strategic balance," not only attacking the Arab Gulf states but also driving a wedge between Israel and the United States. He stated that how the post-war balance of power between Israel and Iran will develop remains to be seen, but "it will certainly be different from what it was in February, and less favorable to Israel than before."On June 15, the Iranian Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the Israeli regimes terrorist act of military aggression against a residential area in the southern suburbs of Beirut this afternoon (June 14). The attack has resulted in casualties among Lebanese citizens. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that this terrorist crime not only blatantly violated Lebanons national sovereignty and territorial integrity but also seriously contravened the ceasefire understanding reached between Iran and the United States on April 8. Iran reiterated that the US government bears direct responsibility for the Israeli regimes crimes and repeated violations of the ceasefire, and emphasized that it will take all necessary measures to exercise its legitimate right to self-defense. Iran warned that the dangerous consequences of the Israeli regimes frivolous actions on regional peace and security should be borne by the United States and the Israeli regime.Iranian Parliament Speaker: The enemy can never defeat any resistance front alone.The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has reported that the number of confirmed Ebola cases has risen to 782.According to Irans Mehr News Agency, the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority stated that it has not issued any new flight notices to restrict domestic flights.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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