EUR/USD 1.16283
0.195%
Gold 4537.47
1.239%
Oil 97.125
-6.000%
USD/JPY 158.834
-0.142%
GBP/USD 1.34428
0.364%
GBP/JPY 213.522
0.226%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a 6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in the southern part of the East Pacific Mid-Range at 01:43 on May 21, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.On May 21, market analysts stated that the minutes of the Federal Reserves April meeting revealed that as the conflict in Iran pushes up inflation, a growing number of officials raised concerns about a tightening stance. At the previous meeting in March, "some" participants indicated that the Fed had ample reason to provide balanced policy guidance, suggesting the next move could be either a rate hike or a rate cut, contrary to the prevailing view that a rate cut would eventually occur. In April, this group expanded to include "many" officials who preferred more neutral wording in the policy statement. The April minutes also noted that, overall, officials generally believed that interest rates would need to remain stagnant for longer than they had initially anticipated.On May 21, Federal Reserve officials concerns about the Iran war pushing up inflation intensified last month, with a growing number of officials saying the Fed should pave the way for a possible interest rate hike. This indicates that incoming Fed Chairman Warsh will be taking over an increasingly hawkish policy-making team. Furthermore, most policymakers at the April meeting indicated that further policy tightening might be necessary if inflation continues to remain above the 2% target. The minutes show that "in response to this possibility, many participants indicated they preferred to remove language suggesting a dovish bias in future interest rate decisions." These minutes, considered "the most divisive in generations," further reveal the shift in the two camps welcoming Warsh: a growing hawkish camp wary of inflation triggered by the Iran war and opposed to any discussion of rate cuts, and a waning dovish camp still inclined towards rate cuts. The main reason driving policymakers further towards a hawkish stance remains inflationary pressures, exacerbated by the war. The minutes show that the April meeting was the second consecutive meeting where more policymakers believed that a rate hike might be necessary if inflation continues to remain above the target.U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials: An American infected with Ebola has arrived in Germany; other high-risk U.S. citizens are being transferred from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Germany and the Czech Republic.U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials: An Ebola patient in the United States has been hospitalized and is in stable condition.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

Suggestion