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On May 17th, Hongqiao Holdings stated at its earnings conference on May 15th that, according to publicly available industry data, aluminum rod inventory has been continuously decreasing since mid-March 2026. This year, due to factors such as the later Spring Festival, the delayed off-season, and the impact of high aluminum prices on downstream restocking, the destocking pace of aluminum ingots has been relatively slow. However, recently, there have been signs of a marginal decline in electrolytic aluminum social inventory. The destocking trend still needs to be continuously observed in conjunction with subsequent downstream production, spot transactions, and delivery status. The relatively high level of aluminum ingot social inventory this year is mainly likely related to the following factors: First, the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival was somewhat delayed, leading to relatively cautious downstream delivery and restocking; second, the relatively high aluminum prices have had a certain impact on downstream procurement, resulting in a temporary accumulation of inventory in the upstream and distribution links; third, the inventory performance of different product forms varies, with the destocking pace of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, and processed materials not being entirely consistent. Overall, with the continued release of downstream demand, there are signs of marginal improvement in aluminum ingot social inventory, but the specific timing and extent of destocking still depend on market supply and demand, price levels, and delivery schedules.According to NBC News, Republicans Lighthizer and Fleming are expected to advance to the second round of the Louisiana U.S. Senate primary.On May 17, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee, President of the Peoples Republic of China, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission, issued important instructions on promoting the high-quality development of philosophy and social sciences. He pointed out that since the 18th CPC National Congress, the philosophy and social sciences front has earnestly implemented the decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee, adhered to the principle of "combining theory with practice," and solidly promoted knowledge innovation, theoretical innovation, and methodological innovation, producing a number of valuable research results that have effectively served the overall work of the Party and the country. Xi Jinping emphasized that on the new journey, we must be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, uphold and strengthen the Partys overall leadership, deepen the systematic research and interpretation of the Partys innovative theories, accelerate the construction of an independent knowledge system for Chinese philosophy and social sciences, better answer the questions posed by China, the world, the people, and the times, strive to create a new situation of high-quality development in philosophy and social sciences, and contribute more wisdom and strength to Chinas modernization.Democrats say a Senate official has removed funding for Trump’s White House banquet hall project from the Republican spending package.May 17 - According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok said on Sunday that he will seek all possible solutions, including emergency arbitration, to avoid a strike at Samsung Electronics and urged the company and union to reach a compromise in wage negotiations.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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