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The preliminary reading of Frances June CPI will be released in ten minutes.On June 30, Wang Yifei, spokesperson for the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), stated at a CCPIT press conference that in May 2026, the CCPIT system nationwide issued a total of 717,000 certificates of origin, ATA Carnets, and commercial certificates, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.14%. Among these, the value of non-preferential certificates of origin issued by the CCPIT system nationwide reached US$30.256 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.36%; the number of certificates issued was 357,200, a year-on-year increase of 5.99%. The value of preferential certificates of origin issued by the CCPIT system nationwide reached US$11.066 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43.89%; the number of certificates issued was 310,800, a year-on-year increase of 32.26%. "The continued substantial increase in the value of certificates of origin issued by the national trade promotion system fully reflects the strong performance of my countrys foreign trade imports and exports, maintaining a stable growth trend overall. At the same time, it also reflects my countrys active efforts to deepen pragmatic cooperation with global economic and trade partners, the growing circle of friends of foreign trade enterprises, and the competitive innovation of my countrys foreign trade products and business models, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality," said Wang Yifei.Gold prices declined on June 30th, poised for their biggest monthly drop since October 2008. Quarterly, gold is also expected to record its first decline since 2024, with the largest drop since the second quarter of 2013. While the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, the market is now more concerned about the extent to which the US will try to control inflation. Marex analyst Edward Meir stated that the current combination of high inflation, high interest rate expectations, and a strong dollar has suppressed the usual reasons supporting gold price increases. OCBC precious metals strategist Christopher Wong pointed out that gold bulls need to see at least one turning point—a decline in real yields, a weaker dollar, or a significant fading of market expectations regarding a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. Until then, the rebound in gold prices is unlikely to be sustainable, and it is more likely to fluctuate and consolidate below previous highs.European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane: Oil price futures curves indicate that oil prices will remain at high levels in the coming years, which means that economic costs will rise.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 1.355%.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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