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July 5th - OPEC+, comprised of OPEC and other oil-producing nations, will hold its monthly meeting later today. An informed source indicated that OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase crude oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. Two other sources stated that this increase is the most likely decision.July 5th - The Malian military reported on the 4th that military positions in multiple locations across Mali were subjected to a new round of coordinated attacks by armed groups. The military successfully repelled all attacks, and the attacked positions remain under its "complete control." The report stated that these attacks occurred in Agailok, Anefisse, Gao in northern Mali, and Sevare in central Mali. A local official in Gao said that before dawn on the 4th, militants launched a fierce attack on military camps with guns and rockets. A local resident said, "This morning, no one can leave their homes... The Malian armed forces have blocked all the streets. The gunfire was so intense, it felt like the roofs were about to collapse."July 5th - According to Israeli sources on the 5th local time, Israeli Transportation Minister Miri Regev confirmed that Israel deployed an Iron Dome air defense system to the United Arab Emirates in the early stages of the US-Israel-Iran conflict. This marks the first time the Iron Dome has been deployed to a country outside of Israel and the United States. Reportedly, this is the first time an Israeli government official has publicly acknowledged deploying the Iron Dome system to the UAE. Previously, related reports had been confirmed by US officials.OPEC+ sources: OPEC+ has agreed in principle to increase its oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August.On July 5th, at the 2026 Global Digital Economy Conference Results Release Conference, Lu Ya, Vice President of the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, released the "Beijing Digital Economy Development Report (2025-2026)" blue book. The report shows that in 2025, Beijings digital economy added value exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, accounting for 46.4% of GDP. It ranked second in the global digital economy benchmark city index evaluation, with a development index value of 0.770, firmly maintaining its position as a "global leading city." Lu Ya introduced that Beijings status as the "No. 1 city for artificial intelligence" continues to be consolidated. In 2025, the core artificial intelligence industry scale reached approximately 450 billion yuan, attracting over 2,500 related enterprises. As of April 2026, 225 large-scale models had been registered. Innovation and industry application of large-scale models are accelerating in both directions, rapidly empowering industrial upgrading, technological innovation, and public services. The market-oriented reform of data elements is being deepened, and breakthroughs have been achieved in the construction of "one zone and three centers." The on-exchange transaction volume of the Beijing International Big Data Exchange increased by 150% year-on-year, and the circulation of trusted data space is deepening around key areas such as healthcare and audiovisual media.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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