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On January 24th, it was reported that on December 24th of last year, four departments, including the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting Relevant Policies of Beijing Real Estate," which involved adjustments to purchase restrictions and credit optimization. Overall, since the implementation of the new policy a month ago, transaction volume has been steadily increasing. Data from Centaline Property shows that since the release of the notice, the average daily number of new home sales contracts has increased by 44.6% month-on-month, with improved housing projects outside the Fifth Ring Road performing particularly well. In the secondary market, after the new policy, the average daily number of viewings at real estate agencies has increased by more than 20% compared to normal, and the average daily transaction volume of secondary homes has exceeded 500 units.January 24th - The Fourth Session of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) solemnly opened at the Beijing Conference Center at 9:00 AM today (January 24th). The opening session will review and adopt the "Agenda of the Fourth Session of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC," hear the "Work Report of the Standing Committee of the 14th Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC," and hear the "Report of the Standing Committee of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC on the Work of Proposals Since the Third Session of the 14th CPPCC."DownDetector, a network monitoring website, reports user complaints that social media platform “X” is experiencing issues.January 24th - The market is widely focused on when the window for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts will open. Ming Ming, chief economist at CITIC Securities, stated that based on past experience, a reduction in the relending rate opens up corresponding room for overall interest rate cuts. With a large number of fixed deposits maturing in the first quarter, the pressure on bank interest rate spreads is easing, and the timing of a policy rate cut is expected in the second quarter. "A RRR cut is expected to be implemented in the first quarter, but a comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait," analyzed a research report from Galaxy Securities. The report suggests that with fiscal policy taking the lead and monetary policy actively cooperating with fiscal policy, a 50 basis point RRR cut is likely to be implemented. A comprehensive interest rate cut still needs to wait for the right opportunity; it is expected that there will be one to two interest rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10 to 20 basis points in the policy rate, thereby guiding the LPR (Loan Prime Rate) downward, which will then be transmitted to further reduce loan and deposit rates.On January 24th, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on the 23rd that US President Donald Trumps remarks about NATO allies not being on the front lines in the Afghan war were "insulting and shocking," and that Trump should apologize. In an interview in Davos, Switzerland, Trump claimed that the US "never needed" NATO, and that NATO allies "would say they sent troops to Afghanistan…they did, but in a slightly back position, a bit off the front lines." Starmer said Trumps remarks deeply hurt the families of British casualties, adding, "If I had said those things, I would certainly apologize." Earlier that day, the British Prime Ministers office issued a statement saying that British troops have been fighting alongside US troops, and that Trump "wrongly" downplayed the role of NATO forces, including British troops, in the Afghan war.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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