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February 6th - Takehiko Nakao, a former senior foreign exchange official in Japan, stated that while using foreign exchange reserves for currency intervention can have an immediate impact on the market, its effects will be more lasting if combined with sustained interest rate hikes. Nakao served as Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs from 2011 to 2013. He said, "Using actual funds for intervention can have a strong impact on the market, but if the Bank of Japan simultaneously demonstrates a clear commitment to sustained interest rate hikes, its effects will be more lasting." The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% last December, but real borrowing costs remain deep in negative territory. Nakao attributed the yens weakness to the Bank of Japans continued dovish stance, stating that the slow pace of interest rate hikes has resulted in a significantly negative inflation-adjusted interest rate in Japan, and a widening interest rate differential between the US and Japan. He added, "Appropriately responding to inflation through interest rate hikes may also curb excessive jumps in long-term Japanese government bond yields." He warned that if the Bank of Japan delays raising interest rates, the yen could weaken further, and mentioned Warshs nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. He stated, "Wash would likely believe that a strong and stable dollar is in the U.S. interest."February 6th - Counterpoint analyst Jeongku Choi stated in a report that soaring memory chip prices could dampen consumer demand for electronic devices. According to Counterpoint data, memory prices have surged 80%-90% quarter-on-quarter since the beginning of the first quarter, driven by a sharp increase in the price of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) used in general-purpose servers. "This is a double blow for equipment manufacturers," the analyst said, adding that rising component costs and weakening consumer purchasing power could slow demand. He pointed out that equipment manufacturers should change their procurement patterns or focus on high-end models to pass on cost pressures.On February 6th, Alibabas Qianwen app officially launched a "3 Billion Yuan Free Orders for Chinese New Year" campaign, distributing free milk tea vouchers. Subsequently, the Qianwen app experienced minor system malfunctions in several regions across the country. In response, Alibaba stated, "We are urgently adding resources to ensure smooth operation."The China Earthquake Networks Center officially reported that a magnitude 3.9 earthquake struck Akto County, Kizilsu Kirghiz Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, at 10:24 AM on February 6th, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.February 6th - Today (February 6th), the Hainan Provincial Information Office held a press conference to introduce the "zero tariff" policy for imported goods for consumption by residents within the Hainan Free Trade Port and to answer reporters questions. The press conference announced that the first batch of five duty-free shops for daily consumer goods will be opened in the three prefecture-level cities of Haikou, Sanya, and Danzhou, with each shop scheduled to open on February 11th, the Southern Lunar New Years Eve.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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