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On September 11, U.S. regulators released a statement on Friday announcing proposed guidance on third-party risk management for banks. The Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the National Credit Union Administration stated that the proposal aims to help banks and credit unions “better align and tailor their third-party risk management practices to match the risks of individual third-party relationships.” In a memo, Federal Reserve staff stated that the plan comes as banks increasingly outsource some functions and rely on third-party relationships to improve efficiency and reduce costs. The plan, open to public comment and non-binding, aims to focus regulatory attention on a principles-based approach to such risks. Federal Reserve Governor Barr opposed the proposal, citing concerns about the “significant financial risk” standard.On September 11, it was learned that the Beijing Stock Exchange penalized three investors who privately acquired newly issued shares and agreed to share profits during the IPO process, imposing a three-month trading restriction on their securities accounts. It was determined that these investors reached a private agreement during the IPO subscription phase, locking in investment returns and transferring investment risks by paying fixed fees or agreeing on profit arrangements. According to relevant laws and regulations, publicly offered securities should be traded on legally established securities exchanges. The actions of these investors bypassed public trading channels, seriously disrupting the IPO order and negatively impacting the market ecosystem. The exchanges decisive action sends a signal of strict regulation and rational IPO participation, which is conducive to maintaining fair and just market order and protecting the legitimate rights and interests of investors.On September 11, during his state visit to Germany this week, the President of the United Arab Emirates announced plans to invest €40 billion (approximately US$46.4 billion) in Germany to further deepen economic ties between the two countries. The investment will cover areas such as artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, and energy. The two countries also announced plans to deepen defense cooperation. The investment plan will include adding approximately 1 gigawatt (GW) of data center capacity. Reportedly, €10 billion of this will be invested in Bavaria, a key center for German industry and technology. Paul Masgrave, Associate Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, stated that, like all Gulf states, the UAE aims to diversify its overseas investment portfolio and develop an economy less reliant on oil.September 11 – The Hungarian government announced it will distribute 20,000 forints (US$64) per vehicle to hundreds of thousands of drivers by the end of the year to help offset the impact of soaring fuel prices. Prime Minister Majol stated in a social media post on Friday that the subsidy of 5,000 forints per month, continuing until December, will be provided to approximately one million owners of diesel vehicles with engines smaller than 150 horsepower. He said, “We have chosen a form of support to help those in need without causing fuel shortages or adding another 50 to 100 billion forints to the budget.” Since Majol’s new government lifted price controls in June, retail prices for gasoline and diesel have been freely floating, but the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed prices to a four-year high, prompting calls from the opposition for renewed government intervention. He did not elaborate on the cost of the measure, but if the approximately one million vehicles involved are owned by one million individuals, the total cost would be around 20 billion forints (US$64 million).TD Securities changed its September interest rate forecast for the Federal Reserve from "unchanged" to "rate hike".

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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