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February 11th - At a regular press conference held by the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council on February 11th, a reporter asked: "Recently, the Taiwan Coast Guard announced that it will carry out so-called security maintenance work during the Spring Festival. What is your comment on this?" Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the Spring Festival is the most important traditional festival for the Chinese nation. If the DPP authorities dare to provoke trouble unnecessarily during this peaceful festival, they must bear all the consequences.February 11th, Futures News: According to the official WeChat account of Tsingshan Industrial Group, 1. Cooperation Overview: Tsingshan Industrial Group and the government of Madagascar signed a memorandum of understanding on a mining and green industry park project. Both parties will jointly explore the investment and construction of a large-scale comprehensive park integrating mineral development, processing and transformation, green industries, and supporting infrastructure, based on Madagascars advantageous mineral resources. 2. Construction Plan: The project plans to include the construction of key infrastructure such as its own port, highways, and airport, aiming to promote the extension of the mineral resource industrial chain and the enhancement of added value locally, thereby promoting industrialization and regional economic development. 3. Official Support: Madagascars President Michael Landrianilina stated that the project aligns with the national industrialization development strategy. Madagascar has established a high-level ministerial joint mechanism to conduct in-depth discussions and feasibility studies with Tsingshan on mineral resource policies, legal frameworks, land supply, and environmental assessments.February 11th - At a regular press conference held by the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office on February 11th, spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the average load factor for cross-strait routes is expected to reach 80% by 2025, fully reflecting the strong demand for direct cross-strait flights. She expressed hope that Taiwan would heed public opinion and promptly remove unreasonable restrictions on cross-strait air transport, allowing airlines on both sides to independently arrange flight schedules based on market demand. Whether there is actual demand for flights should be determined by the market; the DPP authorities are welcome to lift restrictions and see for themselves.February 11th - The yen strengthened against most G10 and Asian currencies in early trading, primarily driven by concerns about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japanese authorities. Philip Wee, a foreign exchange strategist at DBS Bank, noted that Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and top foreign exchange official Jun Mimura have reiterated their close monitoring of any excessive yen depreciation. He stated, "Their statements have kept market concerns about foreign exchange intervention alive." Wee added that the USD/JPY pair fell for the second consecutive trading day overnight, driven by profit-taking, after already declining 0.9% on Monday.On February 11th, CICC released a research report pointing out that the Peoples Bank of Chinas (PBOC) monetary policy report showed strong continuity, aligning with the Central Economic Work Conferences emphasis on "improving quality and efficiency" rather than simply quantitative easing. We believe the real focus is not just on the changes in the reports wording, but more importantly, on a significant trend in Chinas monetary policy mix: how will the policy combination of the PBOC not expanding its balance sheet while commercial banks expand theirs evolve? Considering bank capital constraints, we expect a slowdown in the pace of bank balance sheet expansion to be the general trend. Faced with slower bank balance sheet expansion and faster non-bank expansion, monetary policy still needs to ensure the financial system supports fiscal expansion and stabilize government bond yields. Simultaneously, the PBOC may need to use more proactive open market operations or reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts to ensure money market stability and pay closer attention to the transmission effect of interest rate policy, especially for key vulnerable sectors.

What impact does NFP have on the forex market?

LEO

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.

It is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases data on the first Friday of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. 

This data is analyzed closely because of its importance in identifying the rate of economic growth and inflation.

Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market.

The markets react very quickly and most of the time in a very volatile fashion around the time the NFP data is released. The short-term market moves indicate that there is a very strong correlation between the NFP data and the strength of the US dollar. Historical price movement data shows a small negative correlation between the NFP data and the US dollar Index.

The figure released is the change in nonfarm payrolls (NFP), compared to the previous month, and is usually between +10,000 and +250,000 during non-recessional times. The NFP number is meant to represent the number of jobs added or lost in the economy over the last month, not including jobs relating to the farming industry.

As with other indicators, the difference between the actual non-farm data and expected figures will determine the overall impact on the market. If the non-farm payroll is expanding, this is a good indication that the economy is growing, and vice versa. However, if increases in non-farm payroll occur at a fast rate, this may lead to an increase in inflation. In forex, the level of actual non-farm payroll compared to payroll estimates is taken very seriously. If the actual data comes in lower than economists' estimates, forex traders will usually sell U.S. dollars in anticipation of a weakening currency. The opposite is true when the data is higher than economists' expectations.

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