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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

How CPI affects the Dollar ?

Eden

Oct 25, 2021 13:27

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a broad measure of inflation within an economy in relation to the cost of goods and services. That figure can have a significant impact on the value of a currency in relation to the currencies of other nations.

In the foreign exchange (forex) markets, the monthly CPI measure is one of the most important indicators monitored by traders. In the case of the U.S. dollar, the release and revisions of the CPI figure by the Bureau of Labor Statistics can produce swings in the dollar’s value against other currencies around the world.

This article explains how CPI data affects the relationship between the dollar and its pairings with other currencies on the forex market.

Why the CPI Matters to Currency Traders

Markets typically refer to the CPI indicator as “headline inflation.” This CPI data is critical in the currency markets because inflation dramatically impacts the decisions made by central banks regarding monetary policy.

It is also a forward indicator of an economy’s performance. Should inflation rise sharply as it has in countries such as Brazil and Venezuela in recent years, consumers will be less inclined to save money as their purchasing power erodes. 

Meanwhile, when a central bank hikes interest rates to combat inflation, borrowing, whether by individuals to purchase goods and services or by businesses for the purposes of expanding, will typically contract. This can impact the broader gross domestic product of a nation.

How CPI Data Affects the Dollar on the Forex Market

The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate that affects its actions on monetary policy. The central bank wants to bring the economy to full employment and it wants to ensure a healthy rate of inflation as the economy expands.

As a result, forex traders see both unemployment and inflation figures as figures that will dictate the central bank’s future decision on whether to cut, raise or maintain current interest rate levels. Given the impact of an interest rate on the strength or weakness of a currency, traders can anticipate the impact of the central bank’s actions and the impact on the dollar’s performance in currency pairs.

Forex traders consider the CPI and Core CPI figures to be two of the most fundamental indicators for the performance of an economy. Between the two, however, the Core CPI figure provides a better look under the hood by excluding costs in the energy and food sectors, which tend to experience greater price volatility over time.

In the United States, the Labor Department releases the CPI and Core CPI figures, which don't include the costs of energy or food in the measure. Should that number beat market expectations, the dollar typically sees a boost against other currencies. However, should these readings fall short of consensus expectations, the currency will fall relative to other pairings.

However, the impact is not limited to the monthly report. Like all government data figures, the CPI figure is subject to revisions by economists. Such changes can fuel significant volatility in a currency's value on the global market.

The Bottom Line

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a critical indicator of pricing pressures in an economy and provides a gauge of inflation. Forex traders monitor the CPI, as it can lead to changes in monetary policy by the central bank that will either strengthen or weaken the currency against rivals in the markets. The strength or weakness of a currency can also have a significant impact on the earnings performance of companies with a presence in many global markets.