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On April 4, the Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the peak of passenger flow during the Qingming Festival. It is expected to send 4.1 million passengers today, 365,000 more than the same period last year, an increase of about 9.8%, and is expected to set a new record for single-day passenger volume. This years Qingming Festival railway transportation will start from April 3 to 7. The Yangtze River Delta Railway is expected to send 17.6 million passengers in 5 days, with an average daily passenger flow of 3.52 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."

WTI supply worries are in the spotlight prior to the US CPI

Alina Haynes

Oct 13, 2022 14:38

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been in the red on Wednesday, losing roughly 1.8% at Wall Street's closing bell. Following last week's two-million-barrel-per-day reduction in production plans, OPEC reduced its demand forecasts for this year and the following year by two million barrels per day. WTI traded between $86.30 and $90.05 prior to the time of writing, when it was trading at 87.03.

 

Oil prices are a major topic this week in relation to Thursday's release of the US Consumer Price Index, where core prices have likely remained robust in September, with the series reporting another substantial 0.5% MoM increase. "Shelter inflation likely remained elevated, but we anticipate a dramatic decline in the price of old automobiles. Importantly, gas prices likely provided additional respite for the headline figure, falling approximately 5% month-over-month. Our MoM predictions imply 8.2%/6.6% YoY growth for total and core prices," TD Securities analysts explained. The statistics will likely strengthen the Federal Reserve's resolve to slow the economy through higher interest rates and heighten recession worries, both of which have been bearish for oil.

 

OPEC slashed its 2022 demand prediction by 0.5 million barrels per day in its authoritative Monthly Oil Market Report, citing "the extension of China's zero-COVID-19 limitations in certain locations and economic concerns in OECD Europe." Despite resistance from the Biden Administration, OPEC+ reduced its production plans last week in an effort to prop rising oil prices.

 

TD Securities analysts stated, "The OPEC+ group's effective 1.1m bpd cut will tighten physical balances, providing a positive impetus for both spot prices and timespreads and so encouraging greater involvement." "This is setting the stage for a big price increase as US SPR releases come to a halt and Russian production begins to decline at a quicker rate. The return of shipments from Kazakhstan provides a partial offset, but reports indicate that oil industry strikes in Iran have moved to a large crude refinery in the southwest, adding to supply uncertainties. The right tail of oil prices remains robust.

 

"In the meantime, a pipeline rupture has halted an estimated 200k bpd of flow from the Northern Druzhba pipeline, aggravating the near-term tightening of balances. This leaves traders focused on the demand side of the equation; a really harsh landing might still derail the rebound in energy prices, but the recession that most analysts anticipate will likely result in a slowing, but not a drop, in oil demand growth. This might worsen the tightness of energy markets at a time when Chinese mobility is strengthening, as evidenced by our monitoring of road traffic conditions in the 15 cities with the highest vehicle registrations.