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On April 3, the Reserve Bank of Australias latest report for the banking industry warned that continued uncertainty in US trade policy "could have a chilling effect on business investment and household spending decisions, and pose a significant headwind to the outlook for global economic activity and inflation." The Reserve Bank of Australia said there was also considerable uncertainty about the impact of possible changes in fiscal, regulatory and other government policies on global growth and inflation.The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 564.32 points, or 2.43%, to 22,638.21 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 168.53 points, or 3.11%, to 5,257.91 points; the CSI 300 Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 219.05 points, or 2.57%, to 8,312.46 points; the H-share Index opened on April 3 (Thursday) down 61.24 points, or 1.59%, to 3,800.76 points.USD/CNY reported 7.1889, up 96 points (RMB depreciation); EUR/CNY reported 7.8414, up 588 points; HKD/CNY reported 0.92353, up 8.6 points; GBP/CNY reported 9.3903, up 740 points; AUD/CNY reported 4.5185, down 188 points; CAD/CNY reported 5.0650, up 142 points; JPY/CNY reported 4.8767, up 543 points; RMB/RUB reported 11.6222, down 103 points; NZD/CNY reported 4.1367, up 77 points; RMB/RMB reported 0.61947, up 27.1 points; CHF/CNY reported 8.1915, up 424 points; SGD/CNY reported 5.3478, down 143 points.Hang Seng Index futures opened down 2.64% at 22,600 points, 624 points below the water level.On April 3, James Surowiecki, a famous financial journalist, wrote that he had just figured out where these false tariff rates in the United States came from. They dont actually calculate tariff rates + non-tariff barriers as they say. Instead, for each country, they just divide the US trade deficit with that country by the countrys exports to the United States. So the United States has a $17.9 billion trade deficit with Indonesia, and its exports to the United States are $28 billion, $17.9/$28 = 64% (the United States imposes a 32% reciprocal tariff on Indonesia), and Trump claims that this is the tariff rate imposed by Indonesia on the United States. What a ridiculous thing. Netizens found that similar calculations apply to the European Union and Vietnam.

WTI fluctuates near $87.00 due to contradictory demand-supply data

Alina Haynes

Sep 13, 2022 10:54

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.10.59_1024x576.png

 

After reclaiming the weekly high, the price of WTI crude oil remained stagnant at approximately $87.80, amidst mixed concerns regarding the supply and demand of black gold. In addition to the market's hesitance ahead of critical US inflation data and the weekly industry report on oil inventories, the commodity prices could be affected by the market's disposition.

 

In October, oil production in the Permian Region in Texas and New Mexico, the largest U.S. shale oil basin, is expected to increase by 66,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.413 million bpd, according to a study released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Monday. During the past week, the United States stopped releasing more oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), signaling a significant improvement in the supply situation. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is quoted by Reuters as saying, "The Biden administration is assessing the need for more SPR releases after the present program concludes in October."

 

Reuters, citing statistics from the US Department of Energy (DOE), reports that emergency oil inventories in the United States plummeted to their lowest level since October 1984, falling 8.4 million barrels to 434.1 million barrels in the week ending September 9. In the same vein are the rumors concerning the European Union's oil embargo and the oil price cap imposed by Western leaders on Moscow's energy exports.

 

In addition to the probable increase in China's stimulus, uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran oil deal and the likely retribution of Russia after retreating from portions of Ukraine further support the oil's upward movement.

 

Notable is the correlation between the risk-on sentiment and the dollar's depreciation, which helps oil purchasers. In spite of this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) fell for a second straight day to levels not seen in two weeks, near 108.30 at the latest.

 

After the most recent softening in price pressure, the US CPI for August becomes key. The projections indicate that the headline number will decrease to -0.1% MoM from 0.0% previously, while the CPI excluding food and energy will likely remain steady at 0.3% MoM. Also significant will be the previous 3.645M Weekly Crude Oil Stock data from the American Petroleum Institute (API).

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