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German Chancellor Merz and Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced an agreement on critical mineral supply chains.On August 26th, analysts at Deutsche Bank Research stated that US companies may be more vulnerable to tariffs than their European counterparts. The latest US producer price index rose to 0.9% in July, indicating that US tariffs are impacting businesses. Credit investors appear to be underestimating the impact of tariffs on inflation and the Federal Reserves interest rate decisions, increasing the risk of a credit market downturn. Deutsche Bank analysts stated, "We expect margin pressure on US cyclical companies to persist, while high US dollar interest rates remain a challenge for highly leveraged US issuers."Credit Agricole: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, once in September and once in December.Swedish Central Bank Meeting Minutes: Governor Teden stated, "I consider the likelihood of prolonged high inflation low. It is difficult to assess how quickly economic activity will strengthen. This justifies keeping the door open for another rate cut."Commerzbank warned on August 26 that the dollars potential recovery is limited given the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. The dollars situation will remain "difficult and volatile" as Fed Chairman Powell may struggle to navigate the balance between appropriate monetary policy and political demands. President Trump has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts and criticized Powells cautious stance on easing policy. On Monday, he fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook, raising new concerns about the Feds independence. This, combined with other structural factors such as the deteriorating US fiscal situation, means the dollar is unlikely to regain its previous strength.

WTI Price Analysis: The 100-SMA examines Oil bears near $79

Alina Haynes

Jan 30, 2023 15:25

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WTI crude oil stays in the red for the second consecutive day after retreating from a one-week high the previous day, with intraday losses of 0.30% near $79.30 as the European day begins on Monday.

 

In doing so, black gold pokes the 100-bar Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is approximately $79.20 at the time of publication.

 

The energy benchmark's decline may be related to the price's failure to cross the support-turned-resistance from January 12 in the early Asian session. Downward-sloping MACD signals and a sinking RSI (14) line could bolster the bearish stance.

 

Notably, a break below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $79.20 may struggle to appease Oil bearish, as the $79.00 mark and the 200-day SMA, close to $78.15, could challenge the price's further decline.