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The onshore yuan closed at 6.7674 against the US dollar at 16:30 on July 27, up 70 points from the previous trading day.July 27th, Futures News: Key issues such as Irans control of the Strait of Hormuz and its missile and nuclear programs remain unresolved, and any ceasefire is highly likely to be temporary, leaving geopolitical risks still volatile. While international oil prices have recently seen a wider decline, the possibility of unforeseen black swan events cannot be ruled out. The fundamentals of refined oil products remain weak, and with the end of the month approaching, major oil companies are facing increased sales pressure, leading to a decline in inflated prices. However, the continued policy of major oil companies limiting sales and the high raw material costs for local refineries will provide support for the bottom prices of gasoline and diesel. It is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will fall and then stabilize this week, mainly fluctuating in line with crude oil trends. Due to short-term emotional disturbances in international oil prices, the recent correction is temporary, significantly increasing the uncertainty surrounding the future trend of refined oil products.On July 27, Ibrahim Aziz, chairman of the Iranian Islamic Parliaments National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, warned Ukraine that any attack on Iran would come at a price. Aziz stated on social media that any attack on Iran would have consequences. He added that the United States and Israel have already recognized this, and Ukraine will soon realize that "Iran will not remain unresponsive to attacks."The Hang Seng Index closed up 243.95 points, or 0.98%, at 25,207.18 on Monday, July 27; the Hang Seng Tech Index closed up 72.54 points, or 1.57%, at 4,702.05; the H-share Index closed up 94.32 points, or 1.14%, at 8,365.38; and the Red Chip Index closed up 6.57 points, or 0.16%, at 4,125.78.On July 27th, the German Ifo Institute reported that its business climate index rose to 86.6 from a slightly revised 85.7 in June, exceeding analysts forecast of 86.0. This indicates that German business confidence improved more than expected in July, which will provide some relief to economic expectations for the beginning of the third quarter of 2026. The improvement in business sentiment may be related to reduced market uncertainty at the beginning of the month and the temporary easing of tensions between the US and Iran at the end of June. Notably, the expectations index rebounded to its highest level since February. However, considering the recent developments in the US-Iran conflict, analyst Justin Low believes that businesses will remain cautious and highly vigilant due to significant uncertainty and rising energy prices. Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the risk of shipping disruptions is spreading to the Red Sea region. Unless business or economic confidence shows a more sustained and stable recovery by the end of summer, a cautious approach should be taken towards this report.

WTI Price Analysis: Oil purchasers must sustain a break above $80.00 to maintain control

Daniel Rogers

Apr 04, 2023 13:39

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WTI crude oil prices remain stagnant near $80.30 as commodity traders search for fresh impetus to extend Tuesday's largest daily gain in 11 months. Thus, the price of black gold oscillates around a seven-week-old resistance line with an overbought RSI. (14).

 

WTI purchasers are challenged by not only the $81.00 trend line barrier and the overbought RSI (14) but also the waning bullish bias of the MACD and multiple peaks marked during January 2023 around $82.70.

 

In the event that the energy benchmark surpasses $82.70, the Oil bears' last line of defense could be a rise to a high near $83.30 in December 2022.

 

In contrast, pullbacks can target the $80.00 round number and the $79.00 swing low from late Monday.

 

However, a rising support line from March 24 and the 200-day simple moving average, respectively near $76.15 and $74.35, could pose a threat to Oil skeptics in the future.

 

Should WTI bears maintain control beyond $74.35, a two-week-long support line near $70.80 and the psychological threshold of $70.00 can entice Oil sellers.

 

Buyers of WTI crude oil appear to be running out of steam, but the bears have a considerable distance to travel before regaining control.