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According to TASS, Russia is considering a short-term ban on diesel exports lasting several months.The yield on German two-year government bonds fell to a seven-week low of 2.508% after the release of the European Central Banks consumer expectations survey, down 3 basis points on the day.On June 26th, Fitch Ratings BMI Commodities Research division remained bullish on gold, maintaining its 2026 average gold price forecast of $4,600 per ounce. The firm also believes the Federal Reserve will not make any moves on interest rates this year. As noted last week, the Feds hawkish tone has fueled expectations of rate hikes, posing a significant downside risk to gold. However, as long as inflationary pressures related to the Middle East conflict materialize as expected, and with the recent US-Iran agreement beginning to subside, the most likely outcome is that interest rates will remain unchanged for an extended period. Short-term gold price movements may be driven by Fed policy signals, and precious metals are susceptible to market expectation repricing and a renewed strengthening of the US dollar in the short term.June 26th - A survey released by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Friday showed that eurozone consumers lowered their inflation expectations for the next year in May, while long-term expectations remained stable. This indicates that the ECB is not facing pressure to raise interest rates again quickly. Some ECB policymakers said that further tightening of monetary policy is still needed to curb inflation expectations, but there is still considerable disagreement within the ECB regarding the timing of the next move. The ECB consumer expectations survey showed that consumers expectations for inflation over the next year fell from 4.0% in April to 3.5% in May; their expectations for inflation over the next three and five years remained unchanged at 2.9% and 2.4%, respectively. Based on a survey of approximately 19,000 adults in 11 eurozone countries, the ECB stated: "Uncertainty about inflation expectations over the next 12 months has decreased, but remains higher than before the outbreak of the Middle East wars." As in the past, lower-income groups reported higher current inflation perceptions and expectations than other groups, while younger people reported relatively lower inflation perceptions and expectations. Financial markets currently expect the ECB to raise interest rates one or two more times, with the next rate hike not being fully priced in by the market until the fall.On June 26th, Wang Shuo, Director of the Wuhan Municipal Bureau of Data, revealed the above information at a press conference on the theme of "Activating the Value of Data Elements." He also stated that Wuhan will plan 100 data circulation and utilization scenarios around the "965" industrial system. "The upcoming new version of the computing power voucher policy will have a scale of 100 million yuan, and universities, research institutes, enterprises, and individual entrepreneurs residing in the OPC community can all apply," Wang Shuo said. He added that the simultaneously upgraded Wuhan computing power public service platform will enable tokenized services, striving to allow more individuals and enterprises to use computing power as easily as water and electricity.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD corrects from $24.00 as USD Index recovers and US Employment is monitored

Alina Haynes

Apr 04, 2023 13:45

截屏2022-08-26 下午5.10.05_1024x576.png 

 

After failing to surpass the $24.00 resistance in the Asian session, the Silver price (XAG / USD) has corrected marginally. The precious metal has shown a slight decline in tandem with the US Dollar Index's recovery. (DXY). After establishing a buffer around 102.00, the USD Index has rebounded to near 102.15; however, the downside appears to be favored in anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a neutral posture on interest rates at its monetary policy meeting in May.

 

S&P500 futures are attempting to recoup all of the losses sustained in early Asia. The overall market sentiment is optimistic, so the demand for perceived-risk assets is robust. Prior to the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (March) data, which will be released on Wednesday, 10-year US Treasury yields have increased marginally to around 3.43 percent. According to the consensus, the US economy added 205K positions in March, compared to the previous report of 242K.

 

The need for a halt in the Fed's policy-tightening cycle will increase as a result of fewer job gains following a weaker ISM manufacturing PMI. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, over fifty percent of investors continue to anticipate an additional 25 basis point (bps) rate hike to 5.00-5.25%. However, a significant reorganization is anticipated after the publication of the Employment data.

 

Monday, Fed Board Governor Lisa Cook stated that the United States has both low unemployment and high inflation. Consequently, the Fed is presently focused on inflation, and the disinflationary process has begun, but we are not yet there. The commentary has provided the US dollar with some support.