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July 15th - The 2026 National Civil Aviation Mid-Year Work Video Conference was held in Beijing on July 15th. Song Zhiyong, Director of the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), pointed out that in the first half of the year, the entire industry completed a total transport turnover of 83.37 billion ton-kilometers, passenger traffic of 380 million passenger trips, and cargo and mail traffic of 5.073 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 6.4%, 1%, and 6%, respectively. A total of 7.146 million transport flight hours and 2.683 million flights were completed, with the rate of human-caused incidents per 10,000 flight hours decreasing by 20.6% year-on-year. The flight regularity rate was 93.5%, and the near-gate docking rate at airports with over 10 million passengers reached 87.5%. The total number of registered drones exceeded 4.788 million, accumulating 26.414 million flight hours, a year-on-year increase of 8%.Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh attended a hearing before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on the Federal Reserves semi-annual monetary policy report.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: The European Commission has approved a plan to use €10 billion in EU loans for drones, missiles and fighter jets in Ukraine.Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by nearly $1 in the short term, to $79.7 per barrel and $84.7 per barrel, respectively.On July 15th, the Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 2.25%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without changing the rate, in line with market expectations. Policymakers believe the Canadian economy is recovering, and inflationary pressures driven by oil prices are fading. In its Monetary Policy Report, the Bank of Canada stated, "After a year of weakness, the Canadian economy is showing signs of improvement. Economic growth is expected to pick up, and inflation is expected to gradually decline from its recent highs. However, uncertainty remains high." The Bank of Canada stated in its rate statement that current borrowing costs remain appropriate to support the economic recovery and push inflation back to its 2% target. The central bank stated, "The Governing Council will continue to assess the resilience of the Canadian economy and the inflation outlook, and is prepared to adjust monetary policy as needed." The Bank of Canada expects economic growth to reach 2.5% annualized in the second quarter and 1.5% in the third quarter. Due to the weak economic performance at the beginning of the year, officials had previously significantly lowered their 2026 economic growth forecast to 0.7%, but simultaneously raised their growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 to 1.8% each. The Bank of Canada expects overall inflation to average 2.5% in 2026, up from its previous forecast of 2.3%, and anticipates it to return to the central bank’s 2% target level by early next year.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Double Top Formation Supports Bearish Reversal, 128.00 Targeted

Daniel Rogers

May 10, 2022 10:48

After reaching a fresh multi-year high of 131.35 on Monday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a sharp decline. The difference between the new multiyear high and the previous high of 131.26, reached in the last week of April, is negligible. Therefore, the recent high may be categorized as an unsuccessful attempt to establish above the previous high.

 

The asset produced a Double Top pattern on a four-hour time frame, indicating a bearish reversal after the successful retesting of the prior highs. The key resistance is established by the high of April 28 at 131.26.

 

Notable is the flattening of the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at 130.42 and 129.94 respectively, which indicates weariness in the uptrend.

 

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) has switched from a bullish range of 60.00-80.00 to a consolidation range of 40.00-60.00, indicating a contraction in volatility.

 

The yen bulls could enjoy a brief ride if the asset falls below the 50-EMA at 129.94, which would take the currency towards Thursday's low at 128.76. A break of the latter will bring the asset to the round level support at 128.00.

 

In contrast, the dollar bulls could regain control if the asset surpasses the multi-year high at 131.35. This will take the pair toward the 15 April 2002 high of 132.38, followed by April's high of 132.82.

USD/JPY

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