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Traders are increasing their bets on two more quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, including one next week, after the September CPI report showed consumer inflation rose slightly less than expected last month. Futures contracts tied to the Feds policy rate also show rising expectations for further rate cuts at the central banks January meeting.Nick Timiraos, a "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," noted that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was lower than expected. Core prices rose 0.23% in September, bringing the core CPI annual rate down to 3.0%. Overall prices rose 0.31% month-over-month, bringing the overall CPI annual rate to 3.0%.HSBC: Raised its target price on Google (GOOG.O) from $285 to $295.Procter & Gamble (PG.N) Chief Financial Officer: Consumption in our categories slowed last quarter.On October 24th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slightly less than expected in September, paving the way for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week. The US Department of Labor said Friday that the CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month in September, following a 0.4% increase in August. The annualized rate reached 3.0%, a slight improvement from Augusts 2.9% increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the core CPI rose 0.2% month-over-month (from 0.3% in August), and the year-over-year increase fell to 3.0% from 3.1% in August. Despite the government shutdown halting economic data releases, the CPI report was still released to help the Social Security Administration calculate cost-of-living adjustments for millions of retirees and other benefit recipients in 2026. The data was originally scheduled for release on October 15th. The pass-through of import tariffs has been relatively gradual, as businesses work through inventories accumulated before Trumps broad tariffs were implemented and absorb some of the tax burden. Economists note that businesses have achieved this at the expense of hiring and estimate that consumers have borne approximately 20% of the tariff costs so far.

US Dollar Index Struggles to Surpass 104.00 as US Inflation Rate Rises

Daniel Rogers

May 11, 2022 10:06

The US dollar index (DXY) is equilibrating below the round level mark of 104.00 as market players lose interest in the release of US inflation data. The asset has been fluctuating between 102.35 and 104.20 since April 28 amid a flurry of key economic events, ranging from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decision and the announcement of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) last week to the impending Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics.

US CPI Figures

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to report an annual inflation rate of 8.1 percent, a decrease from the previous rate of 8.5 percent, while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is anticipated to reach 6 percent. Although inflation is anticipated to be lower, this does not guarantee that the Fed will not raise rates in June. If the annual inflation rate rises over the multidecade high of 8.5%, investors should anticipate greater volatility. 

Fed's Mester's address

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that the Fed will not ease its stance on interest rates until it observes a significant decline in inflation levels. Inflation rates are skyrocketing, and the current scenario necessitates tougher measures to curb the rate of inflation's ascent.

 

Important events this week include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Initial Jobless Claims, and the Producers Price Index (PPI), as well as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI).

 

On the back burner are the Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks, China's CPI, and Christine Lagarde's address as President of the European Central Bank (ECB).


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