USD/JPY Bulls compete for easy pickings while bears lurk nearby

Because US yields fell overnight in response to the Bank of England's unexpected move to purchase bonds, the USD/JPY fell to 143.90 in late New York trading. As a result, bulls gave up in the last trading days of the month, sending global bond yields lower, stock prices higher, and the US currency plunging. Following a rise from the 144.04 level, the USD/JPY is currently targeting that level again.

In its first daily decline since September 19th, the US dollar index (DXY) is up 0.36 percent on the day but has reversed from a 20-year high. The yield on the 10-year gilt dropped over 50 basis points to 4.00% while the yield on the 10-year treasury plummeted 21.4 basis points to 3.733% overnight after the BoE's announcements. In reaction, European stocks increased in value, pushing the S&P 500 up by 2.0%.

Beginning September 28th, the central bank has announced that it will initiate short-term purchases of long-term UK government bonds in an effort to restore market equilibrium. BoE said in a statement, "The purchases will be made in whatever quantity is necessary to achieve this aim." After the Old Lady got involved, the yield on the 30-year benchmark gilt dropped by more than 50 basis points, and this was despite the BoE putting most of its attention on the July 2051 bond and buying only GBP1 billion.

In the wake of a severe drop, the USD/JPY exchange rate could be heading for a further correction of the rapid increase from 140.35 a week ago. However, USD/JPY has upward potential so long as the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan exists.

"The Japanese Ministry of Finance, however, will be aware of the currency's current vulnerability and will likely aim to generate sufficient fear of further intervention to discourage speculators. On the other hand, our goal for the next three months remains USD/JPY147.00 "According to Rabobank research.