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April 5th - Today is the second day of the Qingming Festival holiday. The national railway system is expected to transport 14.7 million passengers, with 768 additional trains planned. From April 3rd to 7th, the national railway system is expected to transport a total of 90.5 million passengers. Regarding road travel, the Ministry of Transport reports that the volume of passenger vehicles on national expressways is expected to exceed 54 million, of which approximately 14 million are new energy vehicles. Today, road travel will primarily consist of short-distance trips, with increased visitor flow to parks, suburban tourist attractions, and cemeteries, putting significant pressure on surrounding roads.April 5th - According to the South China Morning Post, Thailands multi-billion dollar fishing industry has been severely impacted by soaring diesel prices caused by Irans blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel. The National Fisheries Association of Thailand reports that half of Thailands massive deep-sea fishing fleet is already anchored in port. The association warns that without government intervention, the remaining vessels will soon cease operations. This could be disastrous for an industry involving hundreds of thousands of people, from deep-sea fishermen to high-end restaurants. Boat owners say they are facing unprecedentedly high prices for diesel fuel needed for their fleets. Last week, diesel prices exceeded 45 baht (US$1.38) per liter, more than 30% higher than pre-war levels. They also still need to pay crew wages.April 5th - Economists say the sudden surge in gasoline prices, felt by American consumers, will be fully reflected in key inflation data released this week. The US March CPI is expected to rise 1% month-over-month, the largest monthly increase since 2022; core CPI is likely to rise 0.3% month-over-month. The Iran war previously pushed up gasoline prices at US gas stations by about $1 per gallon. The day before the CPI data release, the Federal Reserves preferred inflation gauge will provide information on pre-war price pressures. Economists expect the core PCE price index to rise 0.4% for the third consecutive month in February, suggesting that even before the conflict, the process of inflation falling back to a more moderate level had stalled. Combined with signs of stabilization in the US labor market, persistent price pressures, and new inflationary risks from the Middle East war, this helps explain why the Federal Reserve may find it difficult to lower interest rates this year.On April 5th, local time, Ukrainian Presidential Office advisor Podolak stated on the 4th that negotiations regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict will remain suspended as long as the Middle East war continues. He said that due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East, the political and military aspects of the current peace negotiations have been suspended, while the humanitarian aspects continue. Ukrainian President Zelensky and Presidential Chief of Staff Budanov have expressed the possibility of continuing to advance prisoner exchanges, and related work is underway.On April 5, the headquarters building of Kuwait Oil Company caught fire following a drone attack, the latest in a series of attacks by Iran against its Persian Gulf neighbors. Kuwait Oil Company stated that the building, which also houses the Kuwaiti Ministry of Petroleum, has been evacuated and firefighters are on site battling the blaze. This attack comes after Iran has launched multiple airstrikes against the Mina Ahmadi and Mina Abdullah oil refineries and repeatedly targeted Kuwaits airports. The statement said, "The oil industry leadership is closely coordinating with relevant departments, closely monitoring the damage assessment, and taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety of personnel and the site." Just hours before the attack, Irans semi-official Fars News Agency released an updated "target list," adding electricity, water, and steam infrastructure to the list of previously attacked oil, gas, and chemical facilities.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Retracement Moves Seek Confirmation at 1,3000

Alina Haynes

May 13, 2022 10:00

USD/CAD consolidates recent advances while retreating from its highest level since November 2020, reaching a fresh intraday low around 1.3010 during the Asia session on Friday.

 

In doing so, the Loonie pair depicts a pullback from a four-day-old resistance line, which was near 1.3080 at the time of publication.

 

Given that the downward-sloping RSI (14) line is not oversold, the most recent price downturn may continue for a while longer before reaching any important support.

 

However, a junction of the 100-HMA and a one-week-old ascending trend line at 1.2995 is a formidable obstacle for USD/CAD bears.

 

In the event that the price falls below 1.2995, various levels surrounding 1.2920-10, including the high from early May and the 200-hour moving average, will attract pair sellers.

 

In contrast, a decisive breach of the aforementioned short-term resistance line of 1.3080 would require confirmation from the 1.3100 level before going for the peak of 1.3172 in late November 2020.

 

In conclusion, USD/CAD decline is not indicative of a trend reversal until the quotation breaks 1.2920.

The USD/CAD Hourly Graph

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