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On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.Iraq says Iranian natural gas supplies have resumed, with a daily supply of 5 million cubic meters.On March 21, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated during a visit to an oil refinery in Minas Gerais state on March 20 that the escalating conflict in the Middle East necessitates that Petrobras and the government "establish strategic oil reserves" to cope with any potential consequences of the conflict. He warned that if the war continues, and if the United States were to destroy the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis "will only worsen." Previously, on March 12, the Brazilian government announced the exemption of import and sales taxes on diesel fuel, while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate the spillover risks from the Middle East situation.On March 21, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a symposium on supporting the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. Minister Huang Runqiu emphasized the need to further increase support, optimize institutional supply and policy environment, and continuously improve the green development level of private enterprises. He stressed the importance of deepening market mechanism construction, optimizing the allocation of resource and environmental factors, fully leveraging the carbon pricing function, and continuously deepening the reform of emissions trading to provide a more fair, transparent, and predictable market environment for the green transformation of private enterprises. He also emphasized strengthening fiscal and tax policy guidance, innovating the use of fiscal funds, implementing and improving green tax policies, optimizing green pricing mechanisms, and promoting the reduction of transformation costs for private enterprises. Furthermore, he called for vigorously developing green finance, improving the collaborative promotion mechanism for green and low-carbon projects, innovating investment and financing models, improving green finance standards, and guiding more financial resources to precisely support the green and low-carbon development of private enterprises. He stressed the need to standardize corporate environmental information disclosure and credit evaluation, promote the interconnection of environmental information, and provide more comprehensive credit enhancement services for private enterprises. Finally, he emphasized strengthening the empowerment of technological innovation, encouraging participation in national science and technology programs, promoting the establishment of departmental special funds, actively supporting the application and promotion of new technologies, and continuously stimulating the endogenous driving force for the green transformation of private enterprises.An Iranian military spokesman said the United States and Israel are targeting civilian and passenger ships in the Gulf region and warned of retaliatory action.

USD/CAD Price Analysis: Retracement Moves Seek Confirmation at 1,3000

Alina Haynes

May 13, 2022 10:00

USD/CAD consolidates recent advances while retreating from its highest level since November 2020, reaching a fresh intraday low around 1.3010 during the Asia session on Friday.

 

In doing so, the Loonie pair depicts a pullback from a four-day-old resistance line, which was near 1.3080 at the time of publication.

 

Given that the downward-sloping RSI (14) line is not oversold, the most recent price downturn may continue for a while longer before reaching any important support.

 

However, a junction of the 100-HMA and a one-week-old ascending trend line at 1.2995 is a formidable obstacle for USD/CAD bears.

 

In the event that the price falls below 1.2995, various levels surrounding 1.2920-10, including the high from early May and the 200-hour moving average, will attract pair sellers.

 

In contrast, a decisive breach of the aforementioned short-term resistance line of 1.3080 would require confirmation from the 1.3100 level before going for the peak of 1.3172 in late November 2020.

 

In conclusion, USD/CAD decline is not indicative of a trend reversal until the quotation breaks 1.2920.

The USD/CAD Hourly Graph

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