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According to the Wall Street Journal: Ford Motor (FN) further cuts 1,000 jobs in Germany due to continued weak demand for electric vehicles.The European Parliaments head of metals will visit Kyiv, MEPs said.September 17th news: On September 17th local time, Krasnodar Airport in southern Russia received the first flight since its suspension of operations. This is also the first time the airport has resumed formal operations since its closure since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.

USD/CAD Falls Towards 1.2800 Oil Rises Despite Hawkish FOMC Minutes

Alina Haynes

May 26, 2022 09:44

After failing to surpass 1.2820 during the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair has experienced a dramatic decline. The pair is targeting a drop below 1.2800 as market investors have abandoned the US dollar index (DXY) despite Wednesday's release of exceptionally hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

 

The FOMC minutes indicated that all FOMC members supported a 50 basis point (bps) increase in policy rates, which suggests that a sustained environment of policy tightening is imminent. Fed policymakers feel that the U.S. economy requires more massive rate rises because inflation is soaring and the job market is highly tight. Therefore, the necessity to return to neutral rates is really urgent. In addition, the Fed estimates neutral rates to be at 2.9%.

 

In the meantime, oil prices have surpassed the key resistance level of $110.00 as speculators anticipate a rebound in aggregate demand. The Chinese administration will shortly lift restrictions on the movement of people, commodities, and machinery in Shanghai, China, following a two-month lockdown. Notably, China is the largest importer of oil, and the revival of demand in China is sufficient to encourage oil bulls.

 

Traders should be aware that Canada is the major exporter of oil to the United States and that rising oil prices will result in a greater influx of capital into the Canadian dollar region.

USD/CAD

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