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Real-time News
November 22nd - Since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office, market enthusiasm has rapidly subsided. In the past week, the market capitalization of Tokyo-listed stocks evaporated by approximately $127 billion, the yen continued to weaken, and Japanese bond yields soared. Even more unsettling for the market is the rapidly decreasing likelihood of a short-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Interest rate swap market data shows that the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in December has surged from about 30% before Takaichis election victory in early October to 80%. Rodrigo, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank, stated, "The market has become numb to verbal intervention from Japanese officials. The yen is becoming a toy in the hands of speculators." George, global head of foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank, even warned that Takaichis spending plans could trigger disorderly capital flight. Meanwhile, Idana, an investment manager at First Eagle, frankly stated, "Considering tariffs and the current situation, the Japanese economy is actually performing well; now may not be the time to significantly increase fiscal stimulus."On November 22nd, Nick Timiraos, a well-known voice within the Federal Reserve, wrote that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall significantly after appointing a new Fed chairman next May. However, internal opposition to a December rate cut is growing, meaning his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut rates in December, he faces the most severe internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could extend into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee more rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he may resort to more aggressive measures to weaken the central banks independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. But the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and the new chairman appointed by Trump may not be able to control the situation every time.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should minimize the possibility of renewed war. There is a misconception that victory will be easily achieved simply by providing more funds, more weapons, or imposing more sanctions.US Vice President Vance: Any peace plan between Russia and Ukraine should stop the killings while preserving Ukraines sovereignty. Any plan should be mutually acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine.November 22 – According to the China State Railway Group, from January to October this year, the national railway system transported a total of 3.378 billion tons of freight, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a new record for the same period. In the first ten months, freight products continued to be optimized. The "single bill of lading" logistics product for rail-sea intermodal transport booked 30,000 TEUs, and the national railway system transported a total of 14.258 million TEUs of rail-sea intermodal container cargo, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%. Cross-border freight transport remained stable and smooth. From January to October, the China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains operated a total of 28,000 trains, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%; the China-Laos Railway cross-border freight trains transported a total of 4.52 million tons of cargo, a year-on-year increase of 14%; and the Western Land-Sea New Corridor freight trains transported a total of 1.2 million TEUs of containers, a year-on-year increase of 64%, promoting international trade and economic exchanges.
