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November 24th - Analysts show that in the 12 months to September, Australias trade deficit with the US narrowed to its lowest level in 21 years. Gold exports nearly increased tenfold, and beef exports climbed 47% during the same period. Economist James McIntyre wrote, "This is not the first time a small, open economy has unexpectedly benefited from competition with larger trading partners. Australias diversified commodity base positions it favorably in a changing global landscape." In the 12 months to September, Australia sold A$16.4 billion (approximately US$10.6 billion) worth of safe-haven gold to the US, compared to just A$1.6 billion the previous year. Australian beef producers, who had expected to be impacted by Trumps tariff policies, unexpectedly gained a relative advantage as major suppliers like Brazil faced higher tariffs. However, this boost may be short-lived, as the Trump administration has removed a key tariff on Brazilian beef. The positive effects of gold sales may be more lasting. McIntyre wrote that if gold prices remain high in 2026, gold exports will contribute an additional A$15 billion, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP.Indonesias state-owned oil company: Fuel retailer VIVO has agreed to purchase 100,000 barrels of gasoline from Pertamina.Euro Stoxx 50 futures extended their gains, rising 0.85%; UK FTSE 100 futures rose 0.63%; and German DAX futures rose 0.94%.On November 24th, Barclays Research pointed out that uncertainty remains surrounding the Federal Reserves interest rate decision next month, but Chairman Powell is likely to push the FOMC to cut rates. Based on recent speeches, Barclays believes that Governors Milan, Bowman, and Waller are likely to support a rate cut, while regional Fed Presidents Mussallem and Schmid prefer to keep rates unchanged. Recent statements from Governors Barr and Jefferson, as well as Goolsby and Collins, indicate that their stance is not yet clear, but they are more inclined to maintain the status quo. Governors Cook and Williams rely on data but seem more supportive of a rate cut. Barclays stated, "This means that before considering Powells position, there may be six voters who prefer to keep rates unchanged and five who prefer a rate cut." The bank added that Powell will ultimately lead the decision because the threshold for governors to publicly oppose his position is very high.The World Bank has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Kenya to 4.9%, citing a recovery in the construction sector.

USD / NZD Bulls Arrive At The Highs And Apply Pressure Below 0.6250

Daniel Rogers

Mar 02, 2023 16:17

 NZD:USD.png

 

NZD/USD is down roughly 0.27 percent, falling from a high of 0.6257 to a low of 0.6238, wiping out some of the gains made in the middle of the week in reaction to information indicating a recovery in China demand, which raised commodity prices.

 

This came after Australia released a disappointing report, where GDP growth fell to 0.5% quarter-over-quarter from 0.7% earlier and fell short of consensus forecasts of a 0.8% rise. The information raised the chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia would stop raising rates sooner than anticipated, which originally hurt both currencies.

 

However, the kiwi profited from speculative buying after China's non-manufacturing activity expanded at a faster pace in February and the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI report for last month also exceeded expectations. The offshore yuan rose 1.3% to 6.8683 per dollar, recording its largest one-day rise since late November.

 

The New Zealand currency outperformed most of its peers, according to ANZ Bank analysts, and did well on crosses, especially NZD/AUD. "After the strong German CPI report, the EUR was a strong performer, and the Kiwi followed suit. This trend may have been worsened by stop-loss buying in the NZD/AUD pair because there was no clear NZD catalyst. This may result in muted price action in the coming days.

 

The USD mood is also changing. Bond yields climbed as a result of strong data last week, which caused the DXY to soar. However, last night's solid data dragged on the dollar in a "good news is bad news" way, probably due to worries that the Fed will orchestrate a recession. Is the strength of the NZD a tardy acknowledgment of the economy's resilience and post-cyclone recovery? Has performed admirably."


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