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The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning to the forecasting market about the risks associated with American-style odds.New York Fed: July labor market expectations were mixed. Current and expected personal financial outlook improved in July.1. US non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, the first decline since February, compared to market expectations of an 80,000 increase. 2. The US unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1% in July, the lowest level since June 2025, below the market median expectation of 4.2%. 3. US interest rate futures market pricing indicates that the expected rate hike by December is only 28 basis points, lower than the 32 basis points before the non-farm payroll data release. 4. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported sales of 238,000 tons of soybeans to China, to be delivered in the 2026/2027 marketing year. 5. On the evening of July 7, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued a "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Citys Real Estate Policies," clarifying that the required years of social security or individual income tax payments for non-Beijing residents purchasing commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road have been reduced from "2 years" to "1 year." 6. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett: I believe President Trump will not give Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh advice on interest rates. 7. According to the Globe and Mail, as negotiations intensify ahead of the US threat to impose a new round of tariffs, Canada and the US are discussing a potential agreement: Ottawa would agree to meet a series of trade demands put forward by the Trump administration in exchange for tariff reductions for some industries.The New York Fed: In July, the three-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3.3%; the five-year inflation forecast remained unchanged at 3%.The New York Feds 1-year inflation forecast for July was 3.63%, down from the expected 3.71% and the previous reading of 3.67%.

The US Stock Market Continues to Pull Back

Skylar Shaw

Apr 02, 2022 11:25

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

On Friday, the S&P 500 sought to climb in the futures markets but gave back gains, indicating weakness. As a result, the market currently threatens the 4500 level in the futures market, which has previously been a key sector. As a result, it'll be fascinating to watch whether we can pull back much farther, possibly to the 50 Day EMA.


The candlestick's magnitude isn't particularly impressive, but it appears like the 4500 goal I suggested before will be tested. If we break it down further, the 50 Day EMA, which is at the 4400 level, makes a lot of sense, followed by the 200 Day EMA, which is also at that level. 


The market is still highly loud, and I believe it will continue to be so in the future. After all, there are a slew of confusing signals at the present, not least in the bond market, where many traders anticipate we'll see as many as eight interest rate hikes, while others say it's impossible.


Find a reason to go higher, but this is due to the fact that it is unconcerned about the underlying economy. Keep in mind that stock markets are about liquidity more than anything economic. If it were the case, the latest straight-up-in-the-air photo would not have taken place. 


That said, savage rallies are common in bear markets, so, while hope springs eternal, I'll be betting on the downside through options rather than directly in the market.


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