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Intel shares rose 9.1 percent in Frankfurt after its third-quarter results beat expectations.On October 24th, Ilya Spivak, global head of macro at the financial analytics platform tastylive, predicted that the September US CPI report would show the headline CPI reaching a 16-month high of 3.1% annually, while the core CPI would remain at 3.1%, matching the five-month high reached in July. This would mark the first true test of the Federal Reserves monetary policy direction in September. There is reason for concern about inflation, as the Trump administrations tariffs continue to filter through to prices. A clear sign is that core goods inflation reached a two-year high in August. Services price growth cooled in July and August, but the ISM data suggests a sharp increase is imminent. If signs of rising inflationary pressures force the market to reprice expectations for interest rate cuts next year, stocks could decline while the US dollar strengthens.John Luke Tyner, head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors, noted in a report on October 24th that a significant portion (72%) of the US CPI is exceeding the Federal Reserves 2% inflation target. Services inflation continues to hover above target, with the risk of a delayed impact from tariffs. Inflation has been above the Feds target for over 50 months, and this trend is expected to remain through 2028. Under these circumstances, the Fed is unlikely to significantly cut interest rates.The UKs seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month rate in September was 0.5%, in line with expectations of -0.2%. The previous value was revised from 0.50% to 0.6%.The UKs seasonally adjusted retail sales annual rate in September was 1.5%, in line with expectations of 0.4% and the previous value of 0.70%.

The US Stock Market Continues to Pull Back

Skylar Shaw

Apr 02, 2022 11:25

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

On Friday, the S&P 500 sought to climb in the futures markets but gave back gains, indicating weakness. As a result, the market currently threatens the 4500 level in the futures market, which has previously been a key sector. As a result, it'll be fascinating to watch whether we can pull back much farther, possibly to the 50 Day EMA.


The candlestick's magnitude isn't particularly impressive, but it appears like the 4500 goal I suggested before will be tested. If we break it down further, the 50 Day EMA, which is at the 4400 level, makes a lot of sense, followed by the 200 Day EMA, which is also at that level. 


The market is still highly loud, and I believe it will continue to be so in the future. After all, there are a slew of confusing signals at the present, not least in the bond market, where many traders anticipate we'll see as many as eight interest rate hikes, while others say it's impossible.


Find a reason to go higher, but this is due to the fact that it is unconcerned about the underlying economy. Keep in mind that stock markets are about liquidity more than anything economic. If it were the case, the latest straight-up-in-the-air photo would not have taken place. 


That said, savage rallies are common in bear markets, so, while hope springs eternal, I'll be betting on the downside through options rather than directly in the market.


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