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Japans June Economic Watchers Current Conditions Index was 44, below the expected 44.2 and the previous reading of 43.6.July 8th - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates as expected on Wednesday and reiterated the need to gradually return policy to a neutral stance. However, while the bank indicated that further rate hikes were possible at upcoming meetings, it noted "a high degree of uncertainty regarding the timing." Abhijit Surya, an economist at Capital Economics, stated that the banks cautious approach aligns with his view that the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will likely be raised approximately every other meeting until it peaks at 3.25% by the end of 2027.On July 8th, the South Korean government think tank stated that the South Korean economy remains on a recovery track, with the booming semiconductor industry offsetting the slowdown in the overall manufacturing sector. The Korea Development Institute (KDI), in its monthly economic assessment report, noted that South Koreas exports continued their "strong" expansion, driven by robust demand related to artificial intelligence. South Koreas monthly exports surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time in June, reaching $102.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.9%, setting a new record. The KDI stated, "Although the growth rate of semiconductor export volume has slowed, the export value remains strong, supported by continued price increases." Driven by a surge in demand for memory chips, semiconductor exports nearly tripled, reaching $44.82 billion, with monthly exports exceeding $40 billion for the first time. However, the KDI pointed out that manufacturing output declined slightly because "the rapid growth momentum in the semiconductor sector has slowed, and other sectors remain sluggish." The KDI added that high oil prices and a weaker won against the US dollar may "continue to put upward pressure on prices, increasing the risk of further interest rate hikes, thereby dragging down the recovery in consumption."On July 8th, Citigroup issued a report lowering its target price for Tencent from HK$763 to HK$758 to reflect adjustments to its portfolio value, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Citigroup believes the company will continue to review its portfolio and rotate and rebalance between AI-related strategic investments and mature industries with limited future synergies. Looking ahead to the second quarter, Citigroup expects Tencents revenue to grow 9.3% year-on-year to RMB 201.7 billion, and adjusted net profit to grow 5.1% to RMB 66.25 billion, a lower estimate than the market consensus due to a cautious view on AI spending and its potential drag on profitability. In the second half of the year, Citigroup expects the focus to remain on agent-based AI testing within WeChat, the integration of Mini Programs and Hy3, the next generation or upgrade of the Hy model, and capital expenditure. Citigroup believes Tencent will prioritize share buyback opportunities, increase AI investment, and strengthen its core business growth through AI empowerment.A senior lawmaker revealed that Japans ruling party is considering strengthening oversight of information disclosure by activist investors.

The US Stock Market Continues to Pull Back

Skylar Shaw

Apr 02, 2022 11:25

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

On Friday, the S&P 500 sought to climb in the futures markets but gave back gains, indicating weakness. As a result, the market currently threatens the 4500 level in the futures market, which has previously been a key sector. As a result, it'll be fascinating to watch whether we can pull back much farther, possibly to the 50 Day EMA.


The candlestick's magnitude isn't particularly impressive, but it appears like the 4500 goal I suggested before will be tested. If we break it down further, the 50 Day EMA, which is at the 4400 level, makes a lot of sense, followed by the 200 Day EMA, which is also at that level. 


The market is still highly loud, and I believe it will continue to be so in the future. After all, there are a slew of confusing signals at the present, not least in the bond market, where many traders anticipate we'll see as many as eight interest rate hikes, while others say it's impossible.


Find a reason to go higher, but this is due to the fact that it is unconcerned about the underlying economy. Keep in mind that stock markets are about liquidity more than anything economic. If it were the case, the latest straight-up-in-the-air photo would not have taken place. 


That said, savage rallies are common in bear markets, so, while hope springs eternal, I'll be betting on the downside through options rather than directly in the market.


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