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September 11th - According to foreign media reports, U.S. consumer price inflation is expected to accelerate in August as gasoline prices rebound after two consecutive months of decline, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next week. The U.S. Labor Department will release its August CPI report on Friday. This follows strong performance in several key components of Thursdays PPI report. Economists say that with oil prices returning above $100 per barrel, inflation is bound to remain high and expand further. Other economists believe that price pressures will persist due to import tariffs, especially the recent tariffs imposed on Canada, a major U.S. trading partner.US August Unadjusted CPI YoY (Previous: +3.4%, Median Expectation: +3.4%) 1. Citigroup: +3.3%; Capital Economics: +3.3%; UniCredit: 3.3%; Jefferies: +3.3%; Berenberg Bank: +3.3%; Deutsche Bank: +3.3%; 2. DBS Bank: +3.3%; Nomura Securities: +3.3%; Societe Generale: +3.3%; Lloyds Banking Group: +3.3%; Sparta Capital Securities: +3.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +3.4%; 3. Barclays: +3.4%; Wells Fargo: +3.4%; ABN AMRO: +3.4%; ANZ: +3.4%; Danske Bank: +3.4%; Royal Bank of Canada: +3.4%; 4. Bank of America: +3.4%; BNP Paribas: +3.4%; Allied Bank: +3.4%; Monex Group: +3.4%; DekaBank: +3.4%; Morgan Stanley: +3.4%; 5. Goldman Sachs: +3.4%; TD Securities: +3.4%; HSBC: +3.4%; Nikko Securities: +3.4%; UBS: +3.4%; CIBC: +3.4%; 6. JPMorgan Chase: +3.4%; Standard Chartered: 3.4%; Scotiabank: +3.4%; Sberbank Berlin: +3.4%; BMO: +3.4%; ING: +3.5%. US August Unadjusted Core CPI YoY (Previous: +2.5%, Median Expectation: +2.4%) 1. Citigroup: +2.3%; Jefferies: +2.3%; TD Securities: +2.3%; U.S. Bancorp: +2.3%; Allied Bank of Ireland: +2.4%; Deutsche Bank: +2.4%; 2. Barclays: +2.4%; ABN AMRO: +2.4%; Amtrak Financial: +2.4%; Monex Group: +2.4%; Danske Bank: +2.4%; Nordea: +2.4%; 3. ANZ: +2.4%; BNP Paribas: +2.4%; Bank of America: +2.4%; Lloyds Banking Group: +2.4%; SZSE: +2.4%; CIBC: +2.4%; 4. JPMorgan Chase: +2.4%; Capital Economics: +2.4%; Allied Bank: +2.4%; Goldman Sachs: +2.4%; DekaBank: +2.4%; Bank of Montreal: +2.4%; 5. Wells Fargo: +2.4%; HSBC: +2.4%; ING: +2.4%; Nomura Securities: +2.4%; Nikko Securities: +2.4%; Morgan Stanley: +2.4%; 6. Societe Generale: +2.4%; Standard Chartered: +2.4%; UBS: +2.4%; UniCredit: +2.4%; Scotiabank: +2.5%; Sparta Capital Securities: +2.5%.On September 11th, Benedict Cuquela, Chief Investment Strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, stated in a report that the European Central Banks (ECB) focus solely on energy supply shocks was surprising. The ECB failed to consider the still fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation. It also did not adequately account for the impact of tightening bond market interest rates. While the ECB is not lacking in credibility on inflation, there is a risk of over-tightening the nascent economic recovery.September 11 (Kyodo News) – Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi stated at a press conference that day that "no option is ruled out" in discussions and research related to revising the "Three Security Documents" regarding whether Japan should possess nuclear-powered submarines. This is not the first time Koizumi has made similar remarks. Last October, when asked about the issue, Koizumi also stated that "no option is ruled out" for the propulsion system of Japans next-generation submarines, hinting at the possibility of introducing nuclear submarines.On September 11, according to a report by Axios citing two US officials, Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman called US President Trump twice on September 10, urging him to launch an attack on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The report stated that Trump rejected the request. US officials said the US government currently has "no intention of taking direct military action against the Houthis." According to Axios, the US is increasingly concerned about the rapidly escalating conflict in Yemen and is increasing its support for Saudi Arabia while striving to avoid direct military intervention. The report also stated that US Central Command Commander Brad Cooper arrived in Saudi Arabia on September 10 for emergency coordination consultations. Axios added that in recent weeks, US military and civilian officials have made it clear to Saudi Arabia that Trumps directive is to "focus US forces on dealing with Iran and defending the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding opening new military fronts."

The US Stock Market Continues to Pull Back

Skylar Shaw

Apr 02, 2022 11:25

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S&P 500 Technical Analysis

On Friday, the S&P 500 sought to climb in the futures markets but gave back gains, indicating weakness. As a result, the market currently threatens the 4500 level in the futures market, which has previously been a key sector. As a result, it'll be fascinating to watch whether we can pull back much farther, possibly to the 50 Day EMA.


The candlestick's magnitude isn't particularly impressive, but it appears like the 4500 goal I suggested before will be tested. If we break it down further, the 50 Day EMA, which is at the 4400 level, makes a lot of sense, followed by the 200 Day EMA, which is also at that level. 


The market is still highly loud, and I believe it will continue to be so in the future. After all, there are a slew of confusing signals at the present, not least in the bond market, where many traders anticipate we'll see as many as eight interest rate hikes, while others say it's impossible.


Find a reason to go higher, but this is due to the fact that it is unconcerned about the underlying economy. Keep in mind that stock markets are about liquidity more than anything economic. If it were the case, the latest straight-up-in-the-air photo would not have taken place. 


That said, savage rallies are common in bear markets, so, while hope springs eternal, I'll be betting on the downside through options rather than directly in the market.