E-mini NASDAQ-100 Threatening to Turn Lower for the Week

Shortly after the mid-session on Friday, June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures were trading lower. The likelihood of increasing interest rates, a difficult bond market recession indicator, and another decline in semiconductor stocks are the drivers for the weakness.

June E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures were trading at 14736.50 at 17:18 GMT, down 132.25 or -0.89%. The Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF (QQQ) is currently trading at $359.00, down $3.54 or -0.98 percent from its previous close.

Investors are pondering the official March jobs report, which revealed that the US economy added 431,000 jobs. The result was lower than Dow Jones's aggregate prediction of 490,000, but higher than some of the lower end estimates. Nonetheless, the figures indicated that the US economy was resilient, sustaining the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening program.

Stock market traders completely ignored a bond market recession signal that was triggered after the closing bell on Thursday and again on Friday morning. For the first time since 2019, the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rates reversed.

However, after the jobs report confirmed the assumption that the Fed will need to quickly boost rates to control surging inflation, U.S. Treasury yields soared and a frequently monitored portion of the yield curve reinverted.

Meanwhile, chip stocks sank again on Friday, with Intel down more than 4% and Advanced Micro Devices down 2.3 percent, owing to rising concerns about personal computer demand.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the major trend is up. The return of the uptrend will be signaled by a trade through 15268.75. The major trend will turn to down if the price breaks through 12942.50.

Although this is exceedingly unlikely, a regular 50 percent to 61.8 percent correction of the recent 10-session surge is possible.

The minor trend is upwards as well. The minor trend will be changed to down if a deal is made through 14433.50. This will change the tide.

16700.00 to 12942.50 is the major range. Earlier this week, the index encountered resistance at 15264.50, which was the top of its retracement zone. At 14821.25, it is currently trading on the downside of the 50% barrier.

12942.50 to 15268.75 is the short-term range. The new downside target is 14105.40 to 13831.00, which is the retracement zone.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The presence of sellers will be shown by a persistent move below 14821.25. Look for the selling to extend towards the minor bottom at 14433.50 if this move creates enough negative momentum.

If the index can overcome 14821.25 late in the session, it will be in a position to turn higher for the rest of the day.