EUR/USD 1.13865
0.056%
Gold 4029.42
0.713%
Oil 79.068
1.636%
USD/JPY 162.319
-0.079%
GBP/USD 1.33566
0.082%
GBP/JPY 216.806
-0.003%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.35%, German DAX futures fell 0.35%, and UK FTSE futures fell 0.28%.1. Sudden Geopolitical Military Conflict: Serious clashes erupted in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters. According to CCTV and other media reports, two UAE oil tankers were attacked by Iranian cruise missiles in the southern channel of the strait (resulting in one death and eight injuries); the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the attack and destruction of two foreign oil tankers that ignored warnings. Simultaneously, the US Central Command announced it would reinstate the blockade of maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 4:00 AM Beijing time on July 15th. 2. Macroeconomic Policy and Concerns about Soaring Transportation Costs: Trump stated he would impose a 20% protection fee on all goods transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, estimated this could increase the cost of transporting oil through the strait by another $16 per barrel (to $26), potentially increasing the overall cost of a large oil tanker by over $30 million. 3. Weakening Spot Prices: The spot market is entering a downward trend, shifting from a period of high demand to a lower price. The latest SCFIS European line is 3656.38 points, slightly lower than expected. According to Haitong Futures statistics, the market average for Late July is approximately $5130 USD for a container load (TCL). It is expected that the OA and PA alliances still have room to follow Maersks $4800 USD adjustment for 30-week TCL openings, and the average could potentially fall below $5000 USD. 4. Haitong Futures view: The EC main contract is currently betting on the actual downward slope after freight rates peak. The previously anticipated low capacity in the 31-week period might have altered the current linear extrapolation of the downward freight rate path, but the current adjustment after the empty schedule has smoothed the decline. The 08 contract valuation has already largely priced in the subsequent decline; observe whether there is a possibility of a gradual decline. There is a lack of significant marginal improvement drivers in the short term. 5. Guangfa Futures view: Geopolitical disturbances have resurfaced, and short-term downward momentum is nearing exhaustion. For longer-term contracts, the expectation of the resumption of Red Sea shipping, coupled with the uncertainty of the US-Iran conflict, results in greater volatility, but there is currently no clear trend. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market information from Haitong Futures, Guotou Futures, etc., and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice.)BP: Expects natural gas and low-carbon energy production to be 750,000 to 770,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026.BP: Expects oil and gas production and operations to be between 1.42 million and 1.45 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter of 2026.BP: Upstream production is expected to be between 2.17 million and 2.22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in the second quarter.

The final value of the British manufacturing PMI is better than expected, and the pound rebounds sharply or is turning for the better

Oct 26, 2021 11:04

On Friday (October 1), the pound rose sharply against the US dollar. Supported by the weakening of the US dollar and the better-than-expected final value of the UK manufacturing PMI, SMS focused on the resistance at the 1.36 mark. If it can break through, it is expected to suspend the current decline.


The final value of UK manufacturing PMI is better than expected


A survey showed that UK manufacturing activity suffered its weakest month since February in September, when the UK was basically still in lockdown. The survey highlights the impact of supply chain issues and staff shortages on manufacturers.

The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in September fell for the fourth consecutive month, falling from 60.3 in August to 57.1. The final value in September was higher than the initial value of 56.3.

Delivery delays have seen one of the largest jumps in the history of PMI. There are reports of delays in freight transport, staff shortages, interference caused by the new crown epidemic and Brexit, and port delays.

New export orders shrank for the first time in eight months, job growth was the weakest since January, and small manufacturers laid off workers.

Last week, the Bank of England lowered its forecast for economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 due to tight supply, which now also includes fuel shortages caused by lack of truck drivers.

These bottlenecks have pushed up prices, and the September manufacturing input price inflation rate was not far from historical highs.

Despite the current problems, companies participating in the PMI survey are still optimistic about the next year, and 62% of companies expect output to increase.

Three factors support the pound


Citibank economists emphasized the three factors that currently support the pound. In addition, the pound is bound to rise due to the expected increase in interest rates by the Bank of England.

The current factors supporting the pound include the decrease in the number of hospitalizations for the British coronavirus: from the perspective of valuation and economic normalization after the new crown pneumonia, British assets are attractive; the political risks of the EU and the UK negotiating the Northern Ireland agreement are fading, and the short-term There will be no referendum on Scottish independence.

As the Bank of England lowered the threshold for raising interest rates as early as November 2021 at its September meeting, the British pound may receive an additional boost from the UK's monetary policy outlook, which is currently ahead of the Federal Reserve. Vantage point.

GBP/USD technical analysis


GBP/USD ushered in the second consecutive day of gains, and is currently under pressure near the 5-day moving average.

If it can break through the 10-day moving average of 1.3601, the bulls are expected to temporarily get rid of the downward pressure and open the door to the 20-day moving average of 1.3705, and then the 50-day moving average of 1.3771 is worthy of attention.

If the bears counterattack, the support will first look to the September 29 low of 1.3412, and then you can focus on the support at 1.3312 and 1.3188.

(The British pound against the U.S. dollar daily chart)

At GMT+8 21:11, the pound was quoted at 1.3543 against the US dollar.

Suggestion