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On January 30th, Vanke Enterprise (02202.HK) announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that it expects a net loss of approximately RMB 82 billion for 2025, compared to a loss of RMB 49.478 billion in the same period last year. The company anticipates a loss in 2025 primarily due to a significant decrease in the settlement scale of real estate development projects, resulting in a still low gross profit margin; new provisions for credit impairment and asset impairment; overall losses from certain operating businesses after deducting depreciation and amortization; losses from certain non-core financial investments; and some large-scale asset and equity transactions being priced below book value.The UK and Germany will host a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Liaison Group on February 12.On January 30th, Ourpalm announced that it expects a net loss of 90 million to 180 million yuan in 2025. The company anticipates a net loss primarily due to the decline in business of its major investee company, Webzen Inc., and signs of impairment. It anticipates making an impairment provision of 150 million to 250 million yuan for this long-term equity investment (the final impairment amount is subject to assessment and audit by intermediary institutions). In addition, the companys operating revenue also declined year-on-year during the reporting period due to factors such as the decline in revenue from mature game projects as product lifecycles change and the fact that newly developed SLG games have not yet been officially launched and promoted on a large scale.Raymond J. Financial: Upgraded SanDisk (SNDK.O) from Market Perform to Outperform.January 30th - Ukraine is facing serious new nuclear security risks. A Russian attack aimed at disrupting its power grid has left the countrys three operating nuclear power plants without a stable power supply. Diplomats held an emergency meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna to discuss the impact of the Kremlins attacks on critical infrastructure needed to maintain the operation of Ukrainian reactors. Months of attacks have not only left millions facing a dark and cold winter but have also increased the likelihood of a nuclear accident. This is because nuclear power generation, unlike fossil fuel or renewable energy plants, requires a continuous current to maintain its safety systems. If power is cut off, the fuel inside the reactor core could overheat, leading to a dangerous release of radioactive material. European countries have requested the IAEA to provide a detailed assessment of Ukraines vulnerability by next month. Currently, monitoring personnel stationed in Ukraine are inspecting key substations necessary for power transmission.

ADP prospects in the United States: Although it has differentiated from non-agricultural, the popularity of "small non-agricultural" still cannot be underestimated

Oct 26, 2021 11:04

The market currently predicts that ADP's private sector employment will increase by 430,000 in September. The number of ADP employed in July and August was about half of what was expected. The September non-agricultural employment data is the key to the Fed's reduction of debt purchases.



ADP data and non-agricultural data are differentiated


Recently, the monthly correlation between the number of private employment from the Automatic Data Processing Corporation (ADP) and the national data of the Ministry of Labor is weak. However, these data came in a timely manner, released two days earlier than the government data, and they are the largest data in the country outside the non-farm employment report. Currently, analysts expect ADP's US companies to add 430,000 employees in September.

In the past six months, ADP data has failed to provide an early warning of fluctuations in non-agricultural data. In April, the market expected the non-agricultural employment population to increase to 978,000 from 785,000 in March. However, the actual number of non-agricultural employment was beyond market expectations, and only 269,000 new jobs were provided. The ADP employment change report rose from 519,000 to 662,000 that month.


(U.S. ADP employment population historical data)

In July, the non-agricultural employment population increased from 962,000 in June to 1.053 million, the best total since August 2020. In contrast, ADP's July data dropped from 741,000 to 326,000. Finally, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States fell by 818,000 last month to 235,000. The August ADP data rose slightly from above 326,000 to 374,000.


(History of non-agricultural employment population in the United States)


From another perspective, in the five changes in the past six months, the non-agricultural employment population and ADP moved in the same direction only once, and that was in May. In the long period before this, the trend correlation between non-agricultural employment population and ADP is quite good. Both reports fell sharply in April 2020, followed by a large number of re-hiring in the following three months, and both reported negative values in December last year.

The trend of the U.S. labor market is hard to discern


For months, the US labor market has been publishing some confusing data. The number of jobs offered in August reached a record close to 11 million, while only 235,000 were recruited that month.


(Job vacancy at JOLT's in the US)

The situation of the initial application for unemployment benefits also forms another contrast. Despite the huge number of job vacancies, weak recruitment in August, and non-agricultural employment data in September are expected to be flat, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time has increased for three consecutive weeks. The number of applicants for unemployment benefits has increased from the lowest level of 312,000 in the week of September 3 to 32,000.

Another strange phenomenon is the unemployment rate. Ignoring the changes in recruitment this year, the rate is declining every month, from 6.3% in January to 5.2% in August.


(U.S. unemployment rate)

Officials and analysts believe that one of the reasons workers are clearly reluctant to return to work is that the Biden administration has extended the period of federal unemployment benefits. These supplementary subsidies expire in early September, so a large number of people are expected to return to work. However, the market does not seem to have strong confidence in employment recovery, and the non-agricultural employment population in September is expected to be only 45,000.

Some analysts also believe that the epidemic and its countermeasures have created a new economic situation, so that standard statistics, indicators, and analysis at best can only reflect part of what is happening in the labor market.

What is the outlook for the Fed's cuts?


The market is waiting for the Fed to confirm its plan to reduce the scale of bond purchases. The information that is good for a quick cut will support U.S. Treasury bond interest rates and the U.S. dollar. The dynamics of the labor market may have changed, but market transactions are based on traditional information and its impact on policy. Strong non-agricultural employment data will make it easier to explain and prove the reduction in debt purchase plans.

The ADP report may not be a reliable indicator of American employment, but as the most valuable data before non-agricultural, investors still inevitably pay attention to it. The changes in this data may still have a certain impact on the market.

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