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Market sources indicate that several senior British and European officials are participating in talks between Trumps special envoy and Ukrainian President Zelensky in Kyiv. British National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell is also involved, along with national security advisors from other European countries.1. Monday: ① Data: Germanys July seasonally adjusted industrial production month-on-month; UKs August Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index month-on-month; Switzerlands August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate; Eurozones September Sentix investor confidence index, Eurozones final Q2 GDP annual rate, Eurozones final Q2 seasonally adjusted employment quarter-on-quarter rate; Chinas August foreign exchange reserves. ② Holiday: US and Canadian stock markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day; gold, silver, and oil trading ends early. 2. Tuesday: ① Data: Japans July trade balance; Germanys July seasonally adjusted trade balance; Frances July trade balance; US August NFIB small business confidence index, US August New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Chinas August trade balance in US dollars, Chinas August trade balance. 3. Wednesday: ① Data: Chinas August CPI year-on-year; Frances July industrial production month-on-month; US ADP employment change week-on-week for the week ending August 22. 4. Thursday: ① Data: US 10-year Treasury auction (to September 9) - winning yield, US 10-year Treasury auction (to September 9) - bid-to-cover ratio, US API crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4; Germanys final August CPI month-on-month rate; Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate (to September 10), Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate (to September 10); US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 5, US August PPI year-on-year rate, US August PPI month-on-month rate, US August existing home sales (annualized), US July wholesale sales month-on-month rate, US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending September 4; Chinas August M2 money supply year-on-year rate. ② Events: EIA releases monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report; OPEC releases monthly oil market report; Apple holds fall product launch event with the theme "Shine New Chapter"; ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech at the Bundesbank official dinner; TSMC releases August 2026 revenue report; ECB President Lagarde holds monetary policy press conference [simultaneous interpretation]. 5. Friday: ① Data: US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4, US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma crude oil inventories for the week ending September 4, US EIA strategic petroleum reserves for the week ending September 4; UK July three-month GDP month-on-month rate, UK July manufacturing output month-on-month rate, UK July seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, UK July industrial production month-on-month rate; Swiss August consumer confidence index; US August unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, US August seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, US August seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, US August unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate, US September one-year inflation rate expectations preliminary value, US September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value. ② Events: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will begin; IEA releases monthly oil market report. 6. Saturday: ① Data: US total number of oil rigs for the week ending September 11. ② Events: ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech.US President Trump: The imbalance between the Canadian dollar and the US dollar is unacceptable. This situation has persisted for years, but it can no longer be tolerated!Ukrainian President Zelenskyy: The European security advisor will participate in talks on Sunday in Kyiv with the US envoy to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The meeting has begun.On September 6th, according to the Shanxi Economic Daily, on September 4th, the Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Private Economy Bureau released the third batch of projects recommended to private capital for 2026. It is reported that this batch includes 30 projects with a planned total investment of 30.4 billion yuan and a planned introduction of 14.4 billion yuan of private capital. The projects cover multiple key sectors, including 12 industrial projects (including key industrial chain and supply chain projects), 11 major engineering and infrastructure improvement projects, 2 user-paid franchise projects, and 5 other types of projects.

The XAU/USD pair attempts to regain $1,730 prior to Fed Chair Powell's address

Alina Haynes

Sep 08, 2022 16:58

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Gold price (XAU/USD) gains bids to reestablish intraday high at $1,718 as the US dollar retreats ahead of Thursday's big events. In doing so, the yellow metal extends yesterday's recovery from the one-week low amid weaker yields and a mixed risk profile.

 

US 10-year Treasury yields extend Wednesday's fall from the highest levels since mid-June to 3.23%, which weighs on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which retreats to 109.50, extending yesterday's losses from the 20-year high.

 

The recent decline in yields may be attributable to the market's rush into bonds prior to the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Meeting and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech. However, rumors about Japan's probable involvement to preserve the home currency via the bond market appear to have depressed yields.

 

Due to Beijing's role as one of the world's largest gold buyers, contradictory news from China should have also contributed to the XAU/USD's comeback.

 

Three persons with knowledge of the situation were cited by Reuters when they reported encouraging news for China's property sector. Reuters said that "Zhengzhou pledged to restart all halted housing projects within 30 days by utilizing special financing, requiring developers to refund misused funds, and encouraging certain real estate businesses to file for bankruptcy."

 

Nonetheless, the risk-negative news regarding covid and Taiwan appeared to impose downward pressure on metal prices. The South China Morning Post (SCMP) previously reported, "Shenzhen lowers Hong Kong visitors' admission quota." Reuters' report that Taiwan and the United States are preparing for closer ties further dampens the mood.

 

While reflecting market sentiment, S&P 500 Futures post modest gains, whilst Asia-Pacific equities remain divided.

 

In conclusion, the ECB's 75 bps rate hike can limit a short-term decline in the XAU/USD before a new decline, if Powell sounds hawkish. As the ECB's ability to tighten monetary policy is restricted compared to the Fed's, the gold price is likely to remain in the bears' sights. Also, economic concerns originating from Europe are not ruled out, giving gold bears cause for optimism.