EUR/USD
1.17130
-0.061%
Gold
4669.35
-0.264%
Oil
95.536
0.648%
USD/JPY
159.030
-0.242%
GBP/USD
1.35291
-0.030%
GBP/JPY
215.159
-0.268%
Real-time News
Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong: I met with Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization Ryoma Akazawa in Tokyo today to discuss joint approaches to energy and fuels. Australia and Japan are committed to maintaining open trade flows between the two countries to support shared energy security.On April 28th, BNP Paribas analysts stated in a research report that regardless of how the situation develops in the coming days or weeks, the Middle East conflict will have a lasting impact on the global economy. The bank currently expects lower global GDP growth, higher inflation, and a more hawkish stance from central banks compared to their initial forecasts. However, they noted that stronger growth momentum prior to the conflict, as well as structural factors such as artificial intelligence and defense spending, may provide support. BNP Paribas projects US GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, while the Eurozones economic growth is likely to be 1%.On April 28th, the yen strengthened after the Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast and three committee members supported a rate hike, appreciating as much as 0.3% to 158.97 against the dollar. The number of committee members supporting a rate hike rose to three, up from one at the March meeting, indicating a strengthening hawkish stance within the committee. Uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran and the resulting surge in energy prices are casting a shadow over the economic outlook and becoming a greater concern as the Bank of Japan weighs inflation risks against growth. Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said, "The Bank of Japans hawkish stance should be seen as a signal of both currency defense and inflation control, indicating that the authorities tolerance for further yen weakness is decreasing given the resilience of domestic inflation and growth." The Bank of Japan also raised its core inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 2.8% and lowered its economic growth forecast to 0.5%. Market focus will shift to Governor Kazuo Uedas press conference for clues on when policymakers might further tighten policy. A hawkish signal from Ueda could push the yen further away from the 160 level. Overnight index swaps indicate that the market expects a 61% probability of a rate hike in June and has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.Futures News, April 28th: As of April 27th, the mainstream market closing price of benzene in East China was 8650 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Stronger crude oil futures prices boosted market sentiment. Contract traders replenished their inventories on dips, and some downstream buyers stocked up before the May Day holiday, resulting in generally acceptable trading volume. Although negative feedback from downstream companies operating at a loss is intensifying, there has been no immediate adjustment in operating rates, and overall, the bottom support remains relatively strong. With US-Iran negotiations stalled, European and American crude oil futures rose to a two-week high; the market price is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term.On April 28th, Tohru Sasaki, chief strategist at Fukuoka Financial Group and a former Bank of Japan official, stated that the three dissenting votes were precisely the reason for the current yens appreciation. The markets focus is on the CPI, and most members have already raised their inflation expectations, which is another reason why this decision is considered hawkish. The term of dissenting member Junko Nakagawa will expire in June, at which time she will be replaced by a very dovish figure (Ayano Sato). Therefore, this may be the last time we see three dissenting members appearing simultaneously. But regardless, three votes are three votes, so I believe this is a hawkish result.
