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On May 12th, yields on long-term UK government bonds surged. The yield on 20-year bonds rose to 5.734%, the highest since July 1998, up 12 basis points on the day; the yield on 30-year bonds rose to 5.794%, the highest level since May 1998, up 11 basis points on the day. The main reason for the sharp rise in yields was the further weakening of Prime Minister Starmers governing position, with a growing number of Labour MPs calling for his resignation. The rise in long-term bond yields reflects, to some extent, concerns about fiscal sustainability. UK bond investors are worried that Starmers successor may further increase borrowing. Financial markets are closely watching for signs of significant divisions among members of the UK government cabinet.May 12th - The US April CPI is expected to rise 3.7% year-on-year, marking the largest increase since September 2023; the March increase was 3.3%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, is projected to rise 0.3% last month, and is likely to be rounded to 0.4%. March saw a 0.2% increase. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the CPI report, is expected to make a one-time adjustment to rents and landlord-equivalent rents. Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, stated, "The April report will include actual data for this portion of the rent sample, which should have a significant catch-up effect. We expect this particular factor to increase the core CPI increase by about 0.1 percentage points for the month."ECB Governing Council member Nagel: The baseline scenario includes two rate hikes.ECB Governing Council member Nagel: Our mission requires us to act when inflation expectations become unanchored, and we will see the results in June.May 12 - A shortage of ink caused by the Middle East conflict has forced Japans largest potato chip manufacturer to downgrade its packaging, the latest sign that the raw material shortage is worsening and impacting global markets. Tokyo-based snack company Calbee said on Tuesday it will temporarily adjust the packaging design of some of its most popular products, using only two ink colors. These products include potato chips, shrimp crackers, and fruit cereals.

The USD/JPY exchange rate reaches 133.50 as the BOJ's summary of viewpoints bolsters the outlook for loose policy

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 10:59

USD:JPY.png 

 

After fluctuating around 133.50 during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has breached to the upside. The Japanese Yen is volatile due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will retain its ultra-lax monetary policy.

 

The USD Index has maintained a range-bound performance near 103.80 despite the volatility of risk-sensitive assets. The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Tuesday was caused by weakness in technology companies. In addition, a decline in economic activity, as recorded by the Trade Balance figures of the United States Census Bureau, caused uncertainty to US markets.

 

In November, the US international interest rate gap dropped by $15.5 billion, from $98.8 billion in October to $83.3 billion. The drop in the trade deficit is not attributable to a rise in exports, but rather to a general decline in economic activity. The United States economy has begun to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to boost interest rates to combat inflation.

 

In the interim, the decline in US Durable Goods Orders and household consumption spending has begun to raise red flags regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. The economists at ING anticipate that the recession will hasten inflation's reduction, allowing the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of CY2023.

 

Reuters shared the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the most recent monetary policy meeting, which underlined that the central bank must sustain its easy monetary policy because Japan is in a vital phase for achieving its price target. In addition, the economy is exhibiting signs of wage increases, which is a positive economic cycle; yet, it is prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy for the time being.