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Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: The probability of an economic recession has risen to 30% to 40%.The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week ending May 16 was 209,000, compared with expectations of 210,000 and a revised figure of 212,000 for the previous week (originally reported as 211,000).On May 21st, bettors on the prediction website Polymarket predicted that SpaceXs market capitalization upon its IPO will almost certainly exceed $1 trillion, with a 73% probability of surpassing $2 trillion. These bets are tied to SpaceXs closing market capitalization on its first day of trading. The company plans to list in June, with an expected target valuation exceeding $1.5 trillion. Furthermore, data from Polymarket shows a 17% probability of its market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion and a 2% probability of exceeding $4 trillion. The prediction website launched betting on SpaceXs market capitalization approximately two weeks ago, but trading in these contracts is currently thin, possibly indicating that outsiders are cautiously optimistic about these probabilities. If SpaceXs market capitalization does indeed exceed $2 trillion, its size will surpass at least two of the seven largest U.S. stocks: Meta Platforms (META.O) and Tesla (TSLA.O), whose current market capitalizations are approximately $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion, respectively.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Taylor: I think we are probably actually at a level about 100 basis points above the neutral rate.The Xiaomi YU7 GT with full configuration is priced at 429,900 yuan.

The USD/JPY exchange rate reaches 133.50 as the BOJ's summary of viewpoints bolsters the outlook for loose policy

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 10:59

USD:JPY.png 

 

After fluctuating around 133.50 during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has breached to the upside. The Japanese Yen is volatile due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will retain its ultra-lax monetary policy.

 

The USD Index has maintained a range-bound performance near 103.80 despite the volatility of risk-sensitive assets. The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Tuesday was caused by weakness in technology companies. In addition, a decline in economic activity, as recorded by the Trade Balance figures of the United States Census Bureau, caused uncertainty to US markets.

 

In November, the US international interest rate gap dropped by $15.5 billion, from $98.8 billion in October to $83.3 billion. The drop in the trade deficit is not attributable to a rise in exports, but rather to a general decline in economic activity. The United States economy has begun to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to boost interest rates to combat inflation.

 

In the interim, the decline in US Durable Goods Orders and household consumption spending has begun to raise red flags regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. The economists at ING anticipate that the recession will hasten inflation's reduction, allowing the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of CY2023.

 

Reuters shared the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the most recent monetary policy meeting, which underlined that the central bank must sustain its easy monetary policy because Japan is in a vital phase for achieving its price target. In addition, the economy is exhibiting signs of wage increases, which is a positive economic cycle; yet, it is prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy for the time being.