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July 29th - UK government bond yields rose as renewed fighting between the US and Iran led to higher oil prices and heightened inflation concerns. On Tuesday, Iran launched a missile attack on US forces in Jordan; simultaneously, US and Saudi forces launched strikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq. As a result, Tradeweb data shows that the yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose 1.2 basis points to 4.969%. Investors are currently awaiting the Federal Reserves interest rate decision later today, as well as the Bank of Englands interest rate decision on Thursday.On July 29th, Commerzbank economist Antje Praefcke stated in a report that the dollar could fall if the Federal Reserve prompts the market to reduce its expectations for a rate hike later this year. A Fed statement or Fed Chairman Warshs press conference might suggest that the bank believes inflation risks are manageable and temporary. Given the recent decline in energy prices and lower-than-expected June inflation data, Warsh is unlikely to adopt an extremely "tightening" stance in support of policy tightening. Therefore, upward pressure on the dollar driven by rising rate hike expectations is also unlikely.July 29th - Gina Kim, Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio Manager at Nordea Asset Management in Singapore: Given that the core argument remains valid, the current sell-off in the South Korean stock market appears to have irrational, panic-driven elements, primarily concentrated in AI-related technology stocks. Some of the sell-off can be reasonably explained – for example, risk aversion ahead of the summer holidays, margin requirements, and recent news reports regarding the sustainability of AI capital expenditures. We have reduced some of our larger technology stock holdings due to single-stock limitations rather than fundamental reasons.On Wednesday, July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchanges gold T+D contract closed down 0.08% at 881.8 yuan/gram; the Shanghai Gold Exchanges silver T+D contract closed up 1.5% at 14219.0 yuan/kilogram.On July 29th, in response to reports that it planned to raise 2 billion to 3 billion yuan in its first round of external financing, OceanBase stated that the company is fully committed to data technology and product innovation in the AI era and will continue to maintain open communication with the capital market. However, OceanBase did not provide further details regarding the financing scale, the investment institutions it is in talks with, or specific progress.

The USD/JPY exchange rate reaches 133.50 as the BOJ's summary of viewpoints bolsters the outlook for loose policy

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 10:59

USD:JPY.png 

 

After fluctuating around 133.50 during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has breached to the upside. The Japanese Yen is volatile due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will retain its ultra-lax monetary policy.

 

The USD Index has maintained a range-bound performance near 103.80 despite the volatility of risk-sensitive assets. The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Tuesday was caused by weakness in technology companies. In addition, a decline in economic activity, as recorded by the Trade Balance figures of the United States Census Bureau, caused uncertainty to US markets.

 

In November, the US international interest rate gap dropped by $15.5 billion, from $98.8 billion in October to $83.3 billion. The drop in the trade deficit is not attributable to a rise in exports, but rather to a general decline in economic activity. The United States economy has begun to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to boost interest rates to combat inflation.

 

In the interim, the decline in US Durable Goods Orders and household consumption spending has begun to raise red flags regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. The economists at ING anticipate that the recession will hasten inflation's reduction, allowing the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of CY2023.

 

Reuters shared the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the most recent monetary policy meeting, which underlined that the central bank must sustain its easy monetary policy because Japan is in a vital phase for achieving its price target. In addition, the economy is exhibiting signs of wage increases, which is a positive economic cycle; yet, it is prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy for the time being.