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Eurozone money markets currently estimate a 25% probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by July, compared to 15% on Tuesday.1. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, in June and July respectively. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year, with the first cut in June. 3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. 4. Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December this year. 5. EY Bordrin: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, but not until the second half of the year. 6. JPMorgan Chase: No longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026; the next action is expected to be a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. 7. KBC: The next rate cut may not come until March, by 25 basis points. A further 25 basis point cut may be made in the second quarter to reach the neutral interest rate level. 8. Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve will maintain its policy unchanged until June. A decline in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner if the labor market weakens further. 9. ING: The baseline forecast is for the Fed to cut rates in March and June, but the apparent risk now is that this pace could be delayed by three months overall. The Feds "dual mandate" will face more pressing pressure to achieve a rate cut in March. 10. ANZ: A pause in rate cuts in January was appropriate, but a prolonged pause is unnecessary. They forecast the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June. 11. Wells Fargo: Given the two months of economic data to be released before the March meeting, rate cuts could come earlier, in March and June. The risk to their forecast leans towards a delay in the timing of rate cuts.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 15:27 on January 28 near Sunan County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province (38.93 degrees north latitude, 98.22 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.On January 28th, a research report from Hai Securities pointed out that China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) is expected to see a 0.01% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 1.21% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025. The positive contribution of net interest income is expected to increase, deposit growth is stable year-on-year, and the non-performing loan ratio is basically stable year-on-year. The report maintains a "buy" rating. Both revenue and profit are accelerating. The companys revenue in Q4 2025 increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.4% year-on-year, both improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2025. Deposit growth is stable year-on-year, and the "deposit migration" effect may still need to be observed. The bank estimates that the net non-performing loan ratio is basically stable year-on-year, indicating that the company maintains a prudent risk appetite.Morgan Stanley raised its price target for Boeing (BA.N) from $235 to $245.

The USD/JPY exchange rate reaches 133.50 as the BOJ's summary of viewpoints bolsters the outlook for loose policy

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 10:59

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After fluctuating around 133.50 during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has breached to the upside. The Japanese Yen is volatile due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will retain its ultra-lax monetary policy.

 

The USD Index has maintained a range-bound performance near 103.80 despite the volatility of risk-sensitive assets. The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Tuesday was caused by weakness in technology companies. In addition, a decline in economic activity, as recorded by the Trade Balance figures of the United States Census Bureau, caused uncertainty to US markets.

 

In November, the US international interest rate gap dropped by $15.5 billion, from $98.8 billion in October to $83.3 billion. The drop in the trade deficit is not attributable to a rise in exports, but rather to a general decline in economic activity. The United States economy has begun to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to boost interest rates to combat inflation.

 

In the interim, the decline in US Durable Goods Orders and household consumption spending has begun to raise red flags regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. The economists at ING anticipate that the recession will hasten inflation's reduction, allowing the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of CY2023.

 

Reuters shared the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the most recent monetary policy meeting, which underlined that the central bank must sustain its easy monetary policy because Japan is in a vital phase for achieving its price target. In addition, the economy is exhibiting signs of wage increases, which is a positive economic cycle; yet, it is prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy for the time being.


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