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January 19th - On January 15th, Dai Houliang, Chairman of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), met with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney in Beijing. The two sides exchanged views on promoting and expanding Sino-gas cooperation.The yield on Japans 40-year government bonds rose to 3.895%, a record high.On January 19th, Peng Yongtao, Director of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that the service sector contributed 61.4% to national economic growth, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous year; the service sector boosted GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous year; and the service sectors added value accounted for 57.7% of GDP, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year. In the fourth quarter, the added value of the service sector reached 21,594.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, contributing 63.2% to economic growth and boosting GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. The service sectors added value accounted for 55.7% of GDP. In December, the service sector production index increased by 5.0% year-on-year, 0.8 percentage points faster than in November.On January 19th, BetaShares Chief Economist David Barsanese stated that Trumps threats against Europe regarding Greenland could ultimately backfire. He pointed out that no self-respecting European country is likely to relinquish Greenland simply because of tariff threats. Furthermore, imposing higher tariffs on major trading partners will only exacerbate the risks facing the US economy, especially if Europe ultimately retaliates with trade measures. Barsanese added that if Trump is ultimately forced to concede and fails to obtain Greenland, it will once again expose the hollow nature of these threats and undermine all future negotiations.On January 19th, Nomura issued a research report stating that it expects Tencents (00700.HK) revenue to grow 12% year-on-year to RMB 193.5 billion in the last quarter, largely in line with market expectations. Nomura also expects Tencents non-IFRS net profit to increase 15% year-on-year to RMB 63.9 billion, 3% lower than the latest market forecast; due to a 4.2 percentage point increase in gross margin, the non-IFRS operating profit margin is expected to rise 0.7 percentage points to 35.2%. The bank also expects the operating profit margin to remain around 37.2% in fiscal year 2026. The report suggests that Tencent may follow ByteDances lead and more actively utilize GPU resources in third-party data centers to train its Tencent Mixed-Model to address the shortage of advanced chips, and believes the company will increase its investment in AI. Nomura maintains its "Buy" rating on Tencent and continues to give it a target price of HKD 775.

The USD/JPY exchange rate reaches 133.50 as the BOJ's summary of viewpoints bolsters the outlook for loose policy

Alina Haynes

Dec 28, 2022 10:59

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After fluctuating around 133.50 during the Asian session, the USD/JPY pair has breached to the upside. The Japanese Yen is volatile due to expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will retain its ultra-lax monetary policy.

 

The USD Index has maintained a range-bound performance near 103.80 despite the volatility of risk-sensitive assets. The selling pressure on the S&P 500 on Tuesday was caused by weakness in technology companies. In addition, a decline in economic activity, as recorded by the Trade Balance figures of the United States Census Bureau, caused uncertainty to US markets.

 

In November, the US international interest rate gap dropped by $15.5 billion, from $98.8 billion in October to $83.3 billion. The drop in the trade deficit is not attributable to a rise in exports, but rather to a general decline in economic activity. The United States economy has begun to feel the effects of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to boost interest rates to combat inflation.

 

In the interim, the decline in US Durable Goods Orders and household consumption spending has begun to raise red flags regarding the Federal Reserve's aggressive monetary policy. The economists at ING anticipate that the recession will hasten inflation's reduction, allowing the Fed to reduce interest rates by the end of CY2023.

 

Reuters shared the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Summary of Opinions for the most recent monetary policy meeting, which underlined that the central bank must sustain its easy monetary policy because Japan is in a vital phase for achieving its price target. In addition, the economy is exhibiting signs of wage increases, which is a positive economic cycle; yet, it is prudent to maintain a loose monetary policy for the time being.