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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: On July 15th, COMEX gold initially fell before rising, closing at $4066.9/ounce, a decrease of 0.07%. Domestic SHFE gold opened higher in the night session, then quickly weakened, recovering its losses to close at 887.42 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.03%. 1. On Wednesday, the US June PPI fell 0.3% month-on-month, the largest drop since April 2025, while the market had expected it to remain flat; Mays data was revised down from 1.1% to 0.6%. The June PPI rose 5.5% year-on-year, lower than Mays 6.0%. The unexpected decline in June producer prices further indicates that US inflationary pressures are gradually easing ahead of the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Cooling expectations of a Fed rate hike provided some support for gold prices. However, reports indicate that Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh told US lawmakers that the Fed has not yet achieved its mandate to maintain price stability, but declined to reveal how or when it will address this issue, potentially weakening market expectations for a positive PPI. 2. Geopolitically, the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with no signs of de-escalation. According to Reuters, the US launched strikes on Iranian coastal defense facilities and missile bases on Wednesday after reimposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports; Iran, in turn, threatened to cut off energy exports from more regions and stated it was waging a "war for the survival of the nation" with the US. Amid this escalating situation, market risk appetite has further declined, and gold prices are likely to trend weakly with a period of recovery.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: The specific monetary policy measures will be determined by the Bank of Japan.The New York Times filed a motion on Wednesday to rescind subpoenas issued by the U.S. Department of Justice to its journalists who had covered security concerns surrounding the new Air Force One aircraft gifted by Qatar.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama: We will monitor market dynamics and economic indicators to achieve fiscal sustainability.July 16th - The price adjustment window for refined oil products will reopen at 24:00 on July 17th. According to industry information obtained today from Longzhong Information, the expected increase is around 250 yuan/ton, equivalent to approximately 0.18 yuan per liter, marking the ninth price increase this year. Calculations show that for a 70-liter fuel tank, filling up a private car will cost approximately 13 yuan more. However, the final price adjustment will be subject to official announcement.

The USD/JPY exchange rate is anticipated to resume its ascent from 132.00 as the BOJ favors greater policy easing

Alina Haynes

Jan 05, 2023 15:05

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The USD/JPY pair has gradually retraced approaching the crucial support level of 132.00 in the early Asian session. Following a big increase to approximately 132.70, the asset is seeing weak selling pressure. The major may resume its ascent despite the risk-on market mentality, as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has supported greater policy easing to bolster wages.

 

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to lower the rate of interest rate hikes, the S&P500 exhibited a stronger recovery on Wednesday following a two-day fall.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply below 104.00 as an adjustment to the Fed's sluggish pace of policy tightening anticipated a reduction in the US price index for goods and services. In addition, the yield on US Treasury bonds has increased due to the majority of Fed policymakers' support for a slower rate of interest rate increases. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries has declined to approximately 3.69 percent.

 

Investors will await the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change (Dec), which is projected to be 150K, up from the previous release of 127K. In contrast, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report reveals a rise of 200K jobs compared to the previous estimate of 263K. The US Institute of Supply Management's (ISM) report of a decline in manufacturing activity and the Federal Reserve's decision to increase interest rates increase predictions of a slowed employment creation process.

 

After BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda pushed for greater policy easing to drive the wage price index in order to meet higher inflation projections for CY2023 and CY2024, the Japanese yen experienced a strong fall in Tokyo.


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