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The USD/CAD exchange rate moves above 1.3560 in advance of US/Canadian employment data, as oil prices consolidate

Alina Haynes

Jan 06, 2023 11:15

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In the early Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is bouncing within a narrow range of 1.3560-1.3580. The Canadian dollar has retreated to a sideways pattern following a rise from the psychological support level of 1.3500. After the upbeat United States Automatic Statistics Processing (ADP) Employment Change data prompted a trend of risk aversion, market participants demonstrated higher demand for the US Dollar.

 

Rising expectations of a long-term aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) enhanced the appeal of the safe-haven currency, which pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the important resistance level of 105.00. Additionally, it boosted 10-year US Treasury yields above 3.72 percent. In the interim, after a fall on Thursday, demand for S&P500 futures has increased, indicating a minor improvement in investors' risk appetite.

 

Compared to the predicted 150K, the US economy has created 235K jobs for job seekers, according to the US ADP. Stronger labor demand is undoubtedly indicative of a healthy economy, but in times of soaring inflation, it provides the Fed with a solid reason to delay a rate cut in the near future.

 

Investors will keenly examine Friday's release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data in order to obtain deeper insight into the status of the US labor market.

 

Likewise, the Canadian Dollar will respond to the release of Employment data. Compared to the earlier estimate of 10k, the net increase in payrolls for December is expected to be 8k. The jobless rate may increase slightly to 5.2%.

 

Before the release of the official US Employment report, the price of oil exhibits rangebound behavior. Since the Covid-19 scenario may reach its culmination more quickly, the black gold may gain strength. Notably, Canada is the United States' leading oil exporter, and higher oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar.

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