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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

The USD/CAD exchange rate moves above 1.3560 in advance of US/Canadian employment data, as oil prices consolidate

Alina Haynes

Jan 06, 2023 11:15

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In the early Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is bouncing within a narrow range of 1.3560-1.3580. The Canadian dollar has retreated to a sideways pattern following a rise from the psychological support level of 1.3500. After the upbeat United States Automatic Statistics Processing (ADP) Employment Change data prompted a trend of risk aversion, market participants demonstrated higher demand for the US Dollar.

 

Rising expectations of a long-term aggressive monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) enhanced the appeal of the safe-haven currency, which pushed the US Dollar Index (DXY) to the important resistance level of 105.00. Additionally, it boosted 10-year US Treasury yields above 3.72 percent. In the interim, after a fall on Thursday, demand for S&P500 futures has increased, indicating a minor improvement in investors' risk appetite.

 

Compared to the predicted 150K, the US economy has created 235K jobs for job seekers, according to the US ADP. Stronger labor demand is undoubtedly indicative of a healthy economy, but in times of soaring inflation, it provides the Fed with a solid reason to delay a rate cut in the near future.

 

Investors will keenly examine Friday's release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data in order to obtain deeper insight into the status of the US labor market.

 

Likewise, the Canadian Dollar will respond to the release of Employment data. Compared to the earlier estimate of 10k, the net increase in payrolls for December is expected to be 8k. The jobless rate may increase slightly to 5.2%.

 

Before the release of the official US Employment report, the price of oil exhibits rangebound behavior. Since the Covid-19 scenario may reach its culmination more quickly, the black gold may gain strength. Notably, Canada is the United States' leading oil exporter, and higher oil prices strengthen the Canadian Dollar.