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1. Barclays: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank governor has clearly stated that the central banks policy objectives are unusually aligned in one direction: raising interest rates. 2. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. 28 out of 31 economists predict the Bank of Korea will raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.00% by the end of the year. 3. HSBC: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, as the won continues to face depreciation pressure, core inflation remains strong, and the outlook for South Korean economic growth has improved. 4. Bank of America: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The banks stance on the won may be more crucial than the rate hike itself, as policymakers may focus on the wons continued weakness. 5. Scotiabank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The governor has previously given strong hints, and South Korean inflation continues to exceed the target, with the wons depreciation exacerbating imported inflation. 6. Citibank: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, and its governor will hint at 25 basis point increases every quarter in the second half of the year; further rate hikes are expected in July and October this year, and January and April next year. 7. KB Financial Group: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may raise rates twice this year, but the probability of another rate hike in October is higher than consecutive rate hikes in July and August. 8. NH Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The central bank may not provide a specific timetable for further rate hikes to avoid the side effects of forward guidance. 9. Hanwha Investment & Securities: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. This meeting may have an overall hawkish tone. Whether economic growth forecasts are revised upwards and the guidance on the future pace of rate hikes will be key points to watch. 10. Crédit Agricole: Expects the Bank of Korea to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. As the central bank will not update its economic forecasts and forward guidance until August, and oil prices have fallen, the central bank is more likely to raise rates again in October. International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol: Markets are nervous about the renewed escalation of the conflict with Iran.July 16 – The U.S. government imposed sanctions on several individuals and entities on Wednesday, alleging they belong to an international network assisting Iran in procuring weapons. The U.S. Treasury Department said in a statement that the sanctions target Iranian and Russian nationals, as well as multiple entities located in Iran, Russia, and Nigeria. The Treasury Department stated that Wednesdays sanctions "fully illustrate how Iran uses foreign airlines and transport companies, financial channels, and travel coordinators to conceal the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps role in illicit procurement and the global movement of supplies and personnel."A Reuters poll shows that more than half of Japanese companies believe the weak yen is bad for their profits.A Reuters poll shows that nearly one-third of Japanese companies say the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hikes to date have hurt capital investment.

EUR/USD falls toward 1.0500 as the US labor market tightens and investors investigate Eurozone inflation

Daniel Rogers

Jan 06, 2023 11:19

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In the early Tokyo session, the EUR/USD pair is hanging at the critical support level of 1.0520. The major currency pair is projected to prolong its slide to around the psychological support of 1.0500, as the United States' tight job market has spurred the threat of the Federal Reserve (Fed) sustaining rising interest rates beyond CY2023.

 

Investors applied heavy selling pressure on risk-perceived assets such as the S&P 500 as the better-than-anticipated addition of new payrolls to the U.S. labor market for the month of December could accelerate wage inflation in the future. Risk aversion was encouraged by investors, resulting in a jump in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index jumped to roughly 105.00 due to a boost in safe-haven demand. A reduction in investors' risk appetite affected the demand for United States government bonds.

 

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) agency of the United States declared a large increase in the number of employment additions for the month of December, from 150K to 235K, compared to the previous release of 127K. It is abundantly evident that increasing demands for skill will be satisfied by paying higher remuneration, therefore stimulating wage growth and leaving individuals with more spare cash. The declaration could bring about a price index recovery through a spike in retail demand.

 

In the future, the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) statistics release will give further information on the employment situation. The Unemployment Rate is anticipated to continue at 3.7%. In addition, the disclosure of the facts regarding the Average Hourly Wage will be of the utmost importance.

 

Investors will eagerly scrutinize the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) numbers on Friday. In view of the fall in energy prices and German inflation, it is quite possible that Eurozone inflationary pressures will follow a similar trend.

 

As reported by Reuters, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted in a New Year's address: "It would be desirable to achieve the appropriate 'terminal rate' by the summer of next year, but it is too early to say at what level."