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The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note fell to a six-month low of 3.6550% and was last at 3.6611%.On April 4, local time on April 3, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert Kennedy Jr. said that about 20% of the layoffs in the Department of Government Efficiency were wrong and needed to be corrected. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services laid off about 10,000 people on the 1st. Kennedy said that people who should not have been laid off were laid off, and the department is restoring their positions. Kennedy said that canceling the entire lead poisoning prevention and monitoring department of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was one of the mistakes. At present, it is unclear what other projects Kennedy may plan to restore.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Will consider the impact of food costs on consumers.On April 4, local time on the 3rd, the automobile company Stellantis said that due to the impact of the US import automobile tariff policy, the company decided to lay off 900 employees in its five US factories and suspend production operations at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. Antonio Filosa, Chief Operating Officer of Stellantis Americas, said that the US factories that were laid off were powertrain and stamping parts factories, which produced spare parts for two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico. According to the plan, the assembly plant in Canada will stop production for two weeks, and the assembly plant in Toluca, Mexico will suspend production throughout April. Filosa said the company is "continuing to evaluate the medium- and long-term impact of tariffs on operations."Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda: Non-weather factors may push up food prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) Hit a Two-Year High of 101.851 in the Face of Risk Aversion

Drake Hampton

Apr 26, 2022 10:04

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of six currencies, concluded the day up 0.62 percent to 101.735, just shy of the two-year high achieved earlier in the day at 101.851.

 

The market sentiment remains pessimistic, as evidenced by the continued decline in Asian equity futures. Concerns about China's coronavirus outbreak are growing. In Shanghai, the ban was extended to some parts of Beijing, keeping dealers on their toes. Fears of broader Chinese curbs have alarmed investors already concerned about the potential of a global downturn as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to rein in inflation.

 

Additionally, the Fed's remarks last week increased demand for the greenback. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors have fully priced in a 100 percent possibility of a 0.50 percent rate hike at the May meeting.

 

Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield, the benchmark note, has fallen ten basis points from last week's highs at 2.981 percent, to 2.818 percent.

Fed Speaking Summary from Last Week

On Thursday of last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled his support for a half-point rate hike by the May 4-5 meeting. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that the Fed "will almost certainly" hike rates by 50 basis points in the coming months. Daly underlined that the Fed should proceed cautiously with rate hikes and aim to raise interest rates to 2.5 percent by the end of the year.

 

Elsewhere, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard acknowledged that the Fed is behind the curve, but not as much as many believe, while noting that the Fed has previously lifted 75 basis points without the world imploding.

 

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated last Friday that she hoped to achieve neutrality at 2.5 percent by the end of the year. Mester noted that "we don't need to get there" when asked about 75-bps rises. Additionally, she favored a 50-bps hike in May and a few additional increases thereafter.

 

The US economic calendar would include March Durable Goods Orders, the US GDP for the first quarter, and March Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) on annual and monthly basis, in addition to the Chicago PMI.

 

According to ING analysts, the US economy increased at a 1-1.5 percent annualized pace in Q1, which would be lower than the 6.9 percent rate recorded in Q4 of 2021, reflecting the pandemic's Omicron wave, which had a significant impact on mobility.

Forecast for the US Dollar Index (DXY): Technical Outlook

As indicated by the daily chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) maintains an upward tilt. The 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs), which are placed at 98.596 and 95.504, respectively, are significantly below the DXY value, reinforcing the upside bias. At 71.24, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in overbought zone, indicating that the DXY trend is about to reverse.

 

DXY's initial resistance level would be 102.00. A break above would reveal March's 24 daily high of 102.21, March's 2020 daily high of 102.99, and then the aforementioned 103.82 swing high.

 

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