EUR/USD 1.18377
-0.245%
Gold 3670.30
-0.529%
Oil 63.886
-0.441%
USD/JPY 146.374
-0.051%
GBP/USD 1.36472
0.018%
GBP/JPY 199.764
-0.026%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On September 17th, after nearly a decade of negotiations, the European Union and Indonesia concluded trade agreement negotiations. This move is part of the EUs efforts to diversify its supply chains and expand into new markets. European Commission spokesperson Olof Gill stated that EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will visit Indonesia on September 23rd to formally announce the agreement. Indonesian Trade Ministry spokesperson Kusuma Dewi stated that the two sides will issue a joint statement confirming the "substantial completion" of the negotiations. Before the agreement can enter into force, it must be ratified by a majority of EU member states, the European Parliament, and the Indonesian legislature.On September 17th, Convera strategist Antonio Ruggiero wrote in a report that while this weeks UK inflation and employment data further reduced the likelihood of further Bank of England rate cuts, the British pound remains vulnerable. He noted that structural headwinds persist for the pound, and that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected but issues cautious guidance, the pound could face downward risks. Ruggiero said the Fed is likely to reiterate its willingness to cut rates, but given that price pressures remain a "real concern," uncertainty remains about the future policy path. In this scenario, he said, the pound could fall back below $1.36.On September 17, Slovakias Economy Minister Denisa Sakova stated that as an EU member state, Slovakia will resist Trumps demand to cut Russian oil and gas imports unless the country secures sufficient alternative energy supplies. The minister noted that sufficient infrastructure must first be built to support alternative energy transport routes. Her remarks came in response to Trumps latest pressure push: his demand that all EU countries stop importing Russian energy, a move that would impact Slovakia and Hungary. Sakova stated that she made Slovakias position clear during her meeting with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Vienna this week. She said the Trump administration official expressed understanding and acknowledged the need for increased US investment in energy projects in Europe.On September 17th, Bank of Americas September European Fund Manager Survey showed that as concerns about the impact of US tariffs subsided and expectations of US interest rate cuts boosted market sentiment, investors optimism about global economic growth was growing. Bank of America stated that the market expected the EU economy to accelerate growth. The survey noted that "the net percentage of respondents who believe the global economy will slow has fallen to its lowest level since February this year."Turkish Airlines Chairman: We are still in talks with Boeing (BA.N) about purchasing 250 aircraft.

The Era of Low Interest Rates Is Over

Cory Russell

Apr 13, 2022 10:47


微信截图_20220413103157.png


There will undoubtedly be plenty written about the last decade and longer, during which interest rates were lowered and held at levels last seen decades, if not centuries ago.


Markets are increasingly wary of major central banks, particularly the world's most powerful, who are planning to front-load interest rate rises in order to contain the inflation genie that has been let out of the bottle in order to restore rates back to neutral as fast as possible.


This morning, the widely followed US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to fresh cycle highs at 2.83 percent. Surprisingly, higher real rates and inflation expectations were almost equally responsible for the rise. The latter indicates that the market believes there is still opportunity for the Fed to accelerate its rate of tightening.

Red hot US inflation incoming

The March CPI announcement in the United States takes center stage today.


The headline figure is predicted to rise by 1.2 percent month over month and 8.4 percent year over year. The core measure, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, is expected to increase by 0.5 percent month over month and 6.6 percent year over year. With the persistently high rate of monthly price hikes supporting the Fed's red alert inflation mode, all of these measurements will be new multi-decade highs.


This suggests that a substantial pullback in the current yield upswing is unlikely very soon. Even European bonds have fallen in value, with rates recently breaching critical levels ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday. Yesterday, the 10-year German government bond touched its highest yield since 2015, at 0.78 percent. This was remained negative as of early March, demonstrating the bond markets' recent seismic shifts.

USD in pole position, stocks suffering

The sudden increase in rates, along with persistent geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainties about growth, caused stock markets to become more risk-averse.


The Nasdaq, which is heavily weighted in technology, has down more than 2%, with futures pointing to additional losses today.


This week, many large US banks report profits, kicking off the earnings season in earnest. Overall bank revenues are expected to decline by 10%, with investment banking fees falling by 26%, according to analysts.


Meanwhile, the King Dollar is benefiting from its safe-haven reputation as interest rates rise. The DXY broke beyond the 100-point barrier earlier today, as the euro struggled to hold on to its gains after the first round of voting in the French presidential election.


The USD/JPY, however, has been the FX pair most influenced by the long-end adjustment in bonds. Even the Japanese authorities' uncommon jawboning this morning hasn't deterred the persistent bidders in this major.


Most experienced traders believe that no real intervention will begin until 130, with the June 2015 high at 125.85 serving as the next resistance level to be overcome.

Suggestion