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On June 4th, Investinglive analyst Eamonn Sheridan stated that reports indicate Israel and Lebanon, under US guidance, have reached a framework agreement for a ceasefire, with full-scale talks scheduled to resume the week of June 22nd. However, this is contingent on Hezbollahs complete withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Geopolitical risk premiums in the oil market will likely absorb this headline, largely treating it as already priced in. This Lebanese ceasefire plan, framed by Hezbollahs adherence to the agreement and the establishment of a "pilot zone," is essentially a document aimed at advancing the process, not a final solution. The condition attached to the plan—Hezbollahs complete ceasefire and withdrawal from the Litani River region—is precisely the crux of the failures that led to previous arrangements. The market will note that the next round of substantive negotiations will not take place until the week of June 22nd, three weeks from now. If there is any definite takeaway, it is that this announcement confirms the Lebanese front remains a dynamic and unpredictable factor, rather than a settled situation. At the same time, it does not offer any substantial help in resolving the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, or in alleviating the broader US-Iran conflict that is currently driving up oil prices.U.S. State Department: All parties condemn Irans attacks on countries in the region.On June 4th, US President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 3rd that negotiations between the US and Iran were progressing well and an agreement could be reached by the end of the week. Trump said, "Ive heard the negotiations themselves are going very well, actually quite well… If an agreement is reached, it will likely be announced this weekend." When asked whether the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran would still be in effect after Irans latest attack on Kuwait, Trump said, "Everything happens for a reason," adding that the US military had launched a fairly heavy attack on Iran two nights ago, "so some things happen for a reason, and those reasons usually make some sense." He also said that Irans actions were "not a big deal," and that "we have the situation under control and have quickly nipped it in the bud."According to The Information, Meta Platforms (META.O) plans to charge up to $200 per month for its planned "Hatch" AI agent.Broadcom CEO: The company plans to deliver 10 gigawatts of computing power in 2027, and expects to achieve even greater computing power growth in 2028.

The EUR/USD exchange rate fluctuates below 1.0850 as focus shifts to US PPI and Retail Sales data

Alina Haynes

Jan 16, 2023 10:59

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As U.S. markets are closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr.'s birthday, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to establish a trend. As investors anticipate the release of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data from the United States, the main currency pair is trading below 1.0840.

 

S&P500 futures had some selling pressure early in the Asian session, but have since recovered their losses and turned positive, signaling an improvement in risk appetite on the market. Under the influence of a positive market mentality, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is attempting to break below the immediate support level of 101.75.

 

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in December, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce a smaller interest rate increase in the near future. As the Fed seeks to end policy tightening, the USD Index may continue its downward trend for an extended period of time in the future.

 

According to analysts at Wells Fargo, the conclusion of monetary tightening should put an end to the dollar's advances by early 2023. In fact, we believe the trade-weighted dollar has already reached its cyclical peak." Once the Fed begins reducing its policy interest rate at the beginning of the following year, they anticipate an even more pronounced USD depreciation in 2024.

 

On Wednesday, investors will focus on the release of US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The street anticipated a decline as a result of the decline in gasoline prices, which has enabled manufacturers to drop prices at factory gates as a result of reduced production costs. In addition, price reductions will counteract a decline in retail demand. Additionally, Retail Sales figures will be extensively examined.

 

Meanwhile, Eurozone investors are pleased that Germany's preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded 1.9% on an annualized rate in 2022, compared to the market consensus of 1.8% and the previous release of 2.5%.

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