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The EURGBP sustains modest gains over the mid-0.8700s, but lacks bullish conviction

Daniel Rogers

Nov 14, 2022 18:48

The EURGBP cross advances for a second day in a row on Monday and continues its modest intraday gains into the start of the European session. The cross is currently located above the middle of 0.87, but lacks bullish conviction and follow-through buying.

 

The common currency continues to receive some support from wagers on an aggressive policy tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB). In contrast, the negative economic projection for the United Kingdom devalues the British Pound. In reality, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) projects that the United Kingdom's fourth-quarter GDP growth would be flat and the likelihood of a recession remains high. It is thought that this will strengthen the EURGBP cross.

 

However, the chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates further operates as a tailwind for the British pound. Aside from this, a slight US Dollar recovery from a near three-month low exerts some pressure on the Euro and, at least for the time being, limits any meaningful gain for the EURGBP cross. Ahead of this week's crucial UK macro data - the monthly jobs report on Tuesday and the CPI report on Wednesday - traders remain reluctant to place risky wagers.

 

The Monetary Policy Report Hearings at the Bank of England on Wednesday and the Autumn Statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on Thursday will provide markets with extra advice. This will play a vital role in shaping the near-term GBP sentiment and the next leg of the EURGBP cross's directional move. In the lack of market-moving economic data from either the Eurozone or the United Kingdom, it is anticipated that spot prices would stabilize within a range.

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