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On May 9th, Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) announced on social media that Japan may send government officials to Russia as early as the end of May to maintain communication channels and provide support to its companies still operating in Russia. METI stated that it is necessary to protect the assets of Japanese companies remaining in Russia, and to support these efforts, the Japanese government has been maintaining government-level communication with Russia and has made relevant requests.May 9th - As the war with Iran disrupts oil transport in the Persian Gulf, global oil inventories are being depleted at a record rate, eroding the buffers originally intended to withstand supply shocks. The rapid shrinking of inventories means the risk of more extreme price spikes and supply shortages is looming. With the Strait of Hormuz nearing closure for two months, governments and industries have fewer options to cope with a supply loss of over 1 billion barrels. The sharp depletion of inventories also means that even after the conflict ends, the market will remain vulnerable to future supply disruptions for a longer period. Morgan Stanley estimates that global oil inventories fell by an average of about 4.8 million barrels per day between March 1st and April 25th, far exceeding previous peaks in quarterly inventory declines compiled by the International Energy Agency. Crude oil accounted for nearly 60% of the decline, with the remainder being refined products. Crucially, the oil system also needs to set a minimum inventory level. Natasha Kaneva, global head of commodities research at JPMorgan Chase, stated that this means that the untouchable safety stock will be reached before inventories truly bottom out.On May 9th, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) clarified that rumors circulating online claiming "new energy vehicle companies were summoned for talks and placed under investigation for battery locking issues" are false. A CAAM representative stated that the claims circulating online regarding "eight new energy vehicle companies being summoned for talks due to battery locking issues" and "three companies being placed under investigation" lack official source and are seriously inconsistent with the facts. All industry regulatory updates and enforcement measures should be based on official information from the relevant authorities. Furthermore, CAAM hopes that new energy vehicle companies will optimize their battery management systems, maintain transparency, protect consumers right to know and choose, establish efficient after-sales communication channels, actively handle complaints and disputes related to battery locking, and safeguard their brand reputation through honest business practices.On May 9, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced via social media that he had spoken with European Council President Costa, exchanging views on Ukraines cooperation with Europe and its integration into European integration. Zelenskyy stated that he and Costa focused on joint efforts to further Ukraines integration into Europe, clarifying Ukraines commitment to becoming a full member of the EU and that preparations are underway for initiating negotiations and subsequent decisions.On May 9th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliaments Energy Committee stated that production continues uninterrupted at multiple oil fields across the country. He asserted that the actions of adversaries targeting Iranian oil tankers are entirely illegal, and that pressure on Iranian oil exports has been ineffective. There are currently no official reports of an oil spill near Kharg Island. Earlier reports indicated that satellite images suggested a large-scale oil spill near Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub, with pollution covering tens of square kilometers of sea surface.

NZDUSD consolidates near 0.6100, closing below Friday's two-month peak

Alina Haynes

Nov 14, 2022 18:54

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The NZDUSD pair struggles to capitalize on last week's breakthrough momentum through the 100-day Simple Moving Average, bouncing between moderate gains and slight losses throughout Monday's early European session. The pair is currently trading slightly below the 0.6100 level, practically flat on the day, and remains close to Friday's two-month high.

 

A convergence of variables permits the US Dollar to stabilize at its lowest level since mid-August, acting as a headwind for the NZDUSD pair. In response to Christopher Waller's more hawkish remarks on Sunday, U.S. Treasury bond yields rise. It is expected that this, along with a softer tone on equity markets, will benefit the safe-haven dollar and exert some downward pressure on the risk-averse New Zealand dollar.

 

Waller indicated during a conversation in Sydney, Australia, that the markets had overreacted to October's weaker-than-expected consumer price inflation numbers. Waller stated that the Federal Reserve was not lessening its fight against inflation and that a string of moderate CPI readings would be required for the US central bank to soften its approach. This increases US Treasury bond yields and helps support USD demand, notwithstanding the lack of confidence in the intraday rise.

 

A greater possibility that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy tightening discourages USD bulls from placing risky trades. Moreover, optimism surrounding a likely rollback of COVID-19 measures in China supports the NZD/USD pair and restricts its downside. Therefore, the subdued intraday price movement can be characterized as a bullish consolidation phase, meaning that any significant pullback is likely to be purchased and remain confined.

 

The United States is not slated to provide any market-moving economic data on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of US bond yields. Traders will also consider Lael Brainard's anticipated Fed governor address. Together with the broader risk sentiment, this will be analyzed for short-term trading opportunities in the NZDUSD pair prior to the release of Chinese economic data on Tuesday.

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