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Futures July 2, as of June 28, Japans commercial crude oil inventories increased by 43,529 kiloliters from the previous week to 12,287,738 kiloliters. Japans gasoline inventories fell by 108,464 kiloliters from the previous week to 1,673,044 kiloliters. Japans kerosene inventories increased by 102,849 kiloliters from the previous week to 2,099,122 kiloliters. The average operating rate of Japans refineries was 88.2%, compared with 84.4% in the previous week.July 2, Phillip Nova senior market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva wrote in a report that oil futures may trade in a narrower range this week as OPEC+ is widely expected to agree to increase production by another 411,000 barrels per day in August. OPEC+ supply is under the control of investors; however, prices seem to have digested the increase in production and are unlikely to catch the market off guard again in the short term. However, a weaker dollar could prolong any upward momentum.July 2, Goldman Sachs said that if OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much, because the general market expectations have shifted to this result. Goldman Sachs expects the August production increase to be the last, as the large influx of shale oil from non-OPEC countries affects the supply and demand balance, but the risk tends to be a further increase in OPEC+ quotas after August.Canada remains committed to removing all Trump tariffs in its trade deal with the United States, the country’s ambassador to Washington said.Goldman Sachs: If OPEC+ decides to increase production on Sunday, the market is not expected to react much as the general market expectations have shifted to this outcome.

NZDUSD consolidates near 0.6100, closing below Friday's two-month peak

Alina Haynes

Nov 14, 2022 18:54

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The NZDUSD pair struggles to capitalize on last week's breakthrough momentum through the 100-day Simple Moving Average, bouncing between moderate gains and slight losses throughout Monday's early European session. The pair is currently trading slightly below the 0.6100 level, practically flat on the day, and remains close to Friday's two-month high.

 

A convergence of variables permits the US Dollar to stabilize at its lowest level since mid-August, acting as a headwind for the NZDUSD pair. In response to Christopher Waller's more hawkish remarks on Sunday, U.S. Treasury bond yields rise. It is expected that this, along with a softer tone on equity markets, will benefit the safe-haven dollar and exert some downward pressure on the risk-averse New Zealand dollar.

 

Waller indicated during a conversation in Sydney, Australia, that the markets had overreacted to October's weaker-than-expected consumer price inflation numbers. Waller stated that the Federal Reserve was not lessening its fight against inflation and that a string of moderate CPI readings would be required for the US central bank to soften its approach. This increases US Treasury bond yields and helps support USD demand, notwithstanding the lack of confidence in the intraday rise.

 

A greater possibility that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its policy tightening discourages USD bulls from placing risky trades. Moreover, optimism surrounding a likely rollback of COVID-19 measures in China supports the NZD/USD pair and restricts its downside. Therefore, the subdued intraday price movement can be characterized as a bullish consolidation phase, meaning that any significant pullback is likely to be purchased and remain confined.

 

The United States is not slated to provide any market-moving economic data on Monday, leaving the USD at the mercy of US bond yields. Traders will also consider Lael Brainard's anticipated Fed governor address. Together with the broader risk sentiment, this will be analyzed for short-term trading opportunities in the NZDUSD pair prior to the release of Chinese economic data on Tuesday.

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