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Barclays currently expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in November and February 2027, citing persistent inflation risks and the impact of the Middle East conflict.September 18 – According to the Associated Press, the U.S. State Department confirmed that it has approved Iranian President Peshizian and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, along with other senior officials, to travel to New York for next weeks high-level meeting of the United Nations General Assembly. The State Department stated that the Iranian "core delegation" and essential personnel will be allowed to attend the General Assembly activities, but will be subject to travel restrictions and will be prohibited from purchasing luxury goods and other restricted items in accordance with U.S. policy. The U.S. stated that this years Iranian delegation is smaller than last years. This decision was made against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has lasted for more than six months. Currently, there has been no significant progress between the two sides on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue. As the host country of the United Nations, the United States is usually bound by obligations to the host country and finds it difficult to prevent foreign leaders from attending the General Assembly. Previously, the United States has also issued limited visas to representatives of countries involved in conflicts and imposed restrictions on their activities. This decision to approve the Iranian delegations visas comes just one day after the U.S. refused to allow Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his delegation to the General Assembly.A U.S. State Department spokesperson said that the core delegation of the Iranian regime will be able to attend the high-level week of the UN General Assembly.U.S. State Department: Washington has issued visas to Iran to attend a United Nations meeting.Houthi rebels in Yemen: In the past 24 hours, the Saudi Air Force launched 37 airstrikes on Taiz and Hodeidah provinces in Yemen, using F-15 fighter jets that took off from Khamis Mushait Air Base, causing civilian casualties.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate recovers above 0.8000 in advance of Eurozone inflation and UK gross domestic product

Alina Haynes

Mar 30, 2023 16:05

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The EUR/GBP pair extended its recovery above 0.88 during the Asian trading session. Anticipating that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to raise interest rates to combat persistent inflation, the cross has depreciated progressively. Friday will see the publication of preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Q4) figures. Prior to the publication of these figures, it is anticipated that the asset will exhibit explosive activity.

 

It is anticipated that the preliminary Eurozone HICP will decelerate significantly from 8.5% to 7.3%. While it is anticipated that the core HICP will rise to 5.7% from 5.6% in the previous release. Weak energy prices are anticipated to have a significant impact on Eurozone inflation. In light of Christine Lagarde's prediction that inflation will remain elevated for an extended period of time, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue tightening monetary policy.

 

In the interim, banking tensions are subsiding as the absence of information regarding additional collateral damage has a positive impact on the market. Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Wednesday that ECB interest rates must rise if banking tension has no or a "relatively limited" impact.

 

Investors avidly anticipate the United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the consensus, the United Kingdom's growth in the fourth quarter of CY2022 remained unchanged. It is anticipated that the annual GDP will remain unchanged at 0.4%. It is expected that the British economy will undergo a severe recession as a result of high inflation and sluggish growth.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) policymakers appear confident that inflation will moderate in the near future and that the unexpected rise in February's inflation was a one-time anomaly; however, the absence of evidence raises doubts. If inflation persists, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that additional rate increases would be announced. In contrast, Bank of America (BoA) analysts anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will not increase rates and will maintain current levels until 2024.


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