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January 14th - A growing number of options traders are ruling out a 2026 Federal Reserve rate cut and instead betting that the Fed will keep rates unchanged throughout the year. This trend can be traced back to at least last Friday, when US employment data showed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. Market pricing suggests this virtually eliminated the possibility of a Fed rate cut this month, prompting more traders to postpone their expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. David Robin, interest rate strategist at TJM Institutional Services, noted, "From a data perspective, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged until at least March has increased, and the likelihood of stable rates increases with each meeting." Recent options flows for the covered overnight funding rate, which is closely linked to the Feds short-term benchmark rate, have sent a more hawkish signal. New options positions are primarily concentrated in March and June contracts to hedge against a continued delay in the Feds next rate cut. Other positions targeting longer-term contracts are expected to profit from the Feds stance of keeping rates unchanged throughout the year. Robin stated that regardless of whether the market believes the Fed will hold rates steady, these trades are low-cost, and as a prudent risk manager, you would want to hold these positions.On January 14th, according to futures market news: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 1,698,750 lots, an increase of 633,450 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,018,272 lots, an increase of 19,747 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 322,400 lots, an increase of 118,072 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 231,565 lots, an increase of 869 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 620,866 lots, a decrease of 256,129 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,635,714 lots, a decrease of 7,021 lots from the previous trading day.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The uncertainty and risks of nonlinear shocks remain high, and the outlook faces risks from two aspects.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The ECB is currently in a good position.ECB Governing Council member Kazak: The Fed’s actions are worrying.

The ECB-BOJ policy is in the spotlight as the EUR/JPY shows a minor rebound from 140.00

Alina Haynes

Jul 19, 2022 12:03

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From the psychological support level of 140.00, the EUR/JPY pair has shown a less likely rebound. Following a brief recovery, the cross has found resistance at about 140.0. The asset is expected to undergo large price swings in the near term as investors shift their focus to this week's monetary policy statements by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

 

The ECB is expected to announce a rate rise in response to market speculation, ending its 11-year streak of maintaining the status quo. Households are experiencing price pressures as a result of a significant reduction in their real income, which has significantly affected their patterns of savings and consumption.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) has already made the announcement that the Asset Purchase Program (APP) would come to an end in order to reduce the galloping inflation. The focus will now shift to an increase in interest rates in the quest for readily available cheap money on the market.

 

The most significant event of the week will be the publication of the eurozone consumer confidence index, aside from that. The initial estimate for the Consumer Confidence statistics for the eurozone is -24.5, down from the prior estimate of -23.6.

 

When announcing its interest rate decision, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to keep things the same. Given that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) would likely boost global economic demand, it is expected that its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, will take a dovish stance. The BOJ is concerned with keeping the inflation rate at 2%, and in order to do so, it must also raise labor expenses.