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The Hang Seng Tech Index has turned positive after falling more than 2% earlier; the Hang Seng Index is currently up 0.1%.On July 14, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a statement on social media saying that it had attacked multiple weapons support warehouses, a satellite communications center, and a U.S. military base in Bahrain with missiles and drones.The yield on Japans two-year government bonds fell 1.0 basis point to 1.435%. The yield on Japans 20-year government bonds fell 4 basis points to 3.705%.July 14th Futures News Commentary by Guangda Futures: On July 13th, COMEX gold prices plummeted during the session, closing at $4008.7 per ounce, a drop of 2.55%. Domestic SHFE gold prices fluctuated and declined in the night session, closing at 873.26 yuan per gram, a drop of 2.12%. 1. The market refocused on Middle East geopolitics. With the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran and no signs of cessation, the risk of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. Oil prices rebounded rapidly, and the market returned to trading based on the simultaneous rise in inflation stickiness and interest rate expectations, further suppressing precious metals. According to a report in the New York Times on the 13th, Trump stated on Monday that he had notified Congress of the renewed outbreak of hostilities with Iran and that the US would resume its naval blockade against Iran. Market risk appetite was suppressed, and gold prices continued to fall. Furthermore, the weakening AI narrative further compressed market liquidity, suppressing gold price movements. 2. Regarding the Federal Reserve, Fed Governor Waller stated that if core inflation remains high, the Fed may need to raise interest rates, with the probability of a July rate hike slightly increasing. This week will see the release of US June CPI and PPI data, coinciding with Warshs first congressional appearance. The market is concerned that stronger-than-expected data could reinforce Warshs hawkish rhetoric. Overall, golds price action has been characterized by a weak decline and subsequent correction, indicating that its current bottoming-out consolidation is not stable. With geopolitical factors and Fed policy repeatedly intertwined, there is significant divergence between bulls and bears, requiring continued caution.The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference in ten minutes on the import and export situation in the first half of 2026.

The Australian dollar shrinks gains against the US dollar, but the outlook remains negative

Oct 26, 2021 11:04

After meeting resistance above 0.7300 on Thursday (October 7), the Australian dollar against the US dollar reduced its gains in the European market, despite the rebound in market risk appetite.


The latest round of decline in the Australian dollar may be related to the overall slight rebound of the US dollar. The alleviation of the energy crisis, the progress of the US debt ceiling issue, and market optimism have all restricted attempts to hedge the dollar upwards.

On the other hand, the Australian dollar continued to look for support from the recent surge in natural gas prices, and US natural gas prices soared by 40% on Wednesday. Australia is a net exporter of natural gas and a major exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the world.

Later, the market will pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States to seek further hints from Friday's non-agricultural employment data, especially after the strong ADP employment data almost confirms that the Fed will begin to reduce the scale of debt purchases in November. Traders are also waiting for Friday's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy statement.

AUD/USD technical outlook


Karen Jones, head of fixed income technical analysis at Commerzbank, said that as long as the exchange rate is below the 0.7370 area, the outlook for the Australian dollar against the US dollar is expected to remain negative.

Karen Jones said that the recent strength of the Australian dollar against the US dollar is seen as a corrective rebound. The market’s recent upward move is constrained by the 4-month downward trend line at 0.7370, and we will retain the negative bias. Initial resistance is located at the 50-day moving average of 0.7307.

We expect the Australian dollar to fall to the August low of 0.7106. The key support level remains at 0.7062/0.6991. This represents the lows of September and November 2020. A break below 0.6991 will trigger a further fall to the 0.6760 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2020-2021 volatility.

(Australian dollar against the dollar daily chart)

At 18:47 GMT+8, the Australian dollar was quoted at 0.7289 against the US dollar.

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