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On August 25th, the chemical sector opened higher across the board. As of the 11:30 AM close, fuel oil, ethylene glycol, paraxylene, benzene, styrene, and staple fiber all rose by more than 2%. Regarding crude oil, Brent crude futures prices have risen by approximately 30% since the beginning of July, currently trading around $91 per barrel. Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent crude price forecast, expecting it to reach $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year. 1. "The overall upward trend in the chemical sector today is driven by a confluence of positive factors on both the cost and spot markets," said Li Sijin, senior energy and chemical analyst at CITIC Securities Futures. On the cost side, chemical prices are rising in line with crude oil prices; on the spot market, upstream inventories are low. Looking ahead, Li Sijin believes the sustainability of the chemical sectors upward trend depends on oil prices and geopolitical tensions. If crude oil prices remain high, prices for commodities with high import dependence, such as methanol and ethylene glycol, will continue to be strong. 2. Pang Chunyan, Chief Chemical Analyst at SDIC Futures, stated that the upcoming traditional peak season for the chemical industry in the second half of the year and the disruption to the transportation of Middle Eastern oil and gas resources are driving a valuation recovery in the chemical sector. Rising raw material prices are squeezing downstream profits, potentially weakening demand. Furthermore, the poor production efficiency of polyester filament and bottle-grade PET chips means that future performance will depend on oil prices, end-user orders, and the recovery of profits across the industry chain. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)August 25th - Even as the European heatwave eventually subsides, fund managers say they are still working to assess how climate change will impact their portfolios. Self, a senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management, said the company has recently received numerous inquiries from clients regarding the risks and investment opportunities posed by extreme heat. Nuveen stated that the impact of the European drought will soon begin to be reflected in corporate credit spreads. David Harrison, a fund manager at Rathbones Asset Management, said he is optimistic about companies involved in climate solutions and grid infrastructure construction. The impact of climate change is becoming increasingly clear on individual companies. Discussions that previously focused primarily on utilities have now expanded to the financial, industrial, and healthcare sectors. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance analysis, recent filings by global companies have mentioned extreme heat at a record high, and the number of times companies have mentioned the Rhine River and its water levels during earnings calls has also reached a level not seen since 2018.On August 25th, the international standard "Measurement Methods and Test Procedures for Transformers and Inductors for Electronic and Communication Equipment," jointly developed by Chinese experts and experts from the United States, Germany, France, Japan, Italy, and other countries, was recently released by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). This standard officially becomes a unified technical specification for the testing of magnetic components in electronic and communication equipment globally. The release of this standard marks my countrys formal entry into the ranks of global standard leaders in this field, laying a solid foundation of underlying standards for the high-quality development of next-generation information technology and new energy industries such as 5G communications, computing infrastructure, and new energy vehicles.August 25th - According to foreign media reports, Ukrainian frontline troops may need a completely new drone design within weeks, but the countrys defense industry is facing a severe talent shortage, which could hinder its ability to maintain this pace of innovation. Yurii Faraponov, COO of BlueBird Tech, stated that the company is unable to meet some of the frontline demands due to a lack of sufficient engineers. Sergii Vysotskyi, Vice President of the Ukrainian Defense Industry Association, said that some companies are even seeking retired professionals to return to work. Ukraines working-age population has been declining for decades, and this trend has intensified since 2022. In the defense technology sector, the talent shortage directly impacts Ukraines strategy of compensating for its personnel disadvantage on the battlefield with technology. Several industry insiders stated that as weapon systems become more complex and require more expertise, the talent shortage particularly undermines innovation capabilities.1. The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for January-July. As of the end of July, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide reached 4.08 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.29 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; wind power installed capacity was 690 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. 2. Pakistani military statement: Pakistan Army Chief of Staff Munir held comprehensive discussions with Iran, focusing on preventing further escalation of the situation. 3. According to the National Grain and Material Reserves Data Center, domestic soybean crushing volume at oil mills remained high in the first half of August, and soybean meal inventory accumulated rapidly, exceeding one million tons at the beginning of the month. Domestic soybean inventory increased significantly last week, and it is expected that oil mills will maintain high operating rates this week. By the end of the month, soybean meal inventory at oil mills may rise to around 1.1 million tons, an increase of about 150,000 tons month-on-month, roughly the same as the same period last year and the average of the same period over the past three years. 4. At its August meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australias nine policy committee members were divided on whether to raise interest rates, with "several" members believing that a rate hike might be necessary given the upside risks to inflation. 5. Satellite data shows that from August 17th to August 23rd, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil reached 13.414 million tons, an increase of 647,000 tons compared to the previous period. Port inventories continue to rise, and the current inventory level is still slightly higher than the average for the year. 6. CCTV News reporters learned from the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center of the Ministry of Natural Resources that this years El Niño event in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific may challenge historical observation records. Model predictions continue to be revised upwards, predicting that this El Niño event will peak in late autumn to winter this year, potentially becoming the strongest El Niño event on record. 7. Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Ryosuke Akazawa stated on Tuesday that Japan plans not to release additional national oil reserves in September and October. He stated that Japans crude oil purchases in September are expected to drop to around 80% of last years average monthly purchases, from 100% in August, as tankers that normally pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are rerouting on the longer Suez Canal route. 8. If the ongoing global oil product crisis intensifies, it could pose significant risks to Mongolias mining and industrial sectors. Therefore, the Mongolian government, within the framework of expanding oil product import channels, has set a target of increasing fuel imports from China to 30% of domestic consumption.

Risk sentiment improves. USD/JPY trading fluctuates, "short trap" strengthens the upward trend

Oct 26, 2021 11:04

On Thursday (October 7), the US dollar against the yen fluctuated within a narrow range, fluctuating between slight rises and slight declines, and is currently trading at around 111.30.


A series of factors helped USD/JPY gain some positive traction in the first half of Thursday, despite the lack of further bullish momentum. The risky urge in the market weakened the safe-haven yen. After the Bank of Japan lowered its assessment of 5 of Japan’s 9 regional economies, the yen was under further pressure.

On Wednesday, after Russian leaders assured Europe of natural gas supplies, global risk sentiment took a dramatic turn. In addition, the US Senate Republican leader McConnell said that the party will allow the federal debt ceiling to be extended to December to avoid a federal debt default. This has further stimulated investors' interest in high-risk assets such as stocks.

But the weaker dollar tone inhibited any meaningful upside of the dollar against the yen. Due to the market expectation that the Fed will tighten its policy early and the recent widening of the US-Japan Treasury bond yield gap, the downward momentum of the exchange rate has still been cushioned.

Since the Fed hinted at the end of September that it would start reducing the scale of monthly bond purchases by the end of 2021, US bond yields have been rising. Fearing that soaring energy prices will trigger inflation, the market seems to have begun to digest the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates in 2022. This will boost the U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar against the yen.

The fundamental background seems to be favorable to the bulls and supports the prospect of continuation of the recent appreciation trend of the past three weeks or so. However, investors seem to be reluctant to bet heavily, preferring to wait and see before the closely watched US Monthly Employment Report (NFP) is released on Friday.

At the same time, traders may get clues from the weekly unemployment claims data released by the United States on Thursday, which will be released in the North American market in early trading. In addition, US bond yields and broader market risk sentiment will affect the dollar against the yen and allow traders to seize some meaningful opportunities.

From a technical point of view, the “short trap” under the 38.2% retracement level of 110.95 for USD/JPY has strengthened the overall upward trend. There is room for the exchange rate to rise to 112.08, 112.23, and 112.40. These three levels are 2021. , 2020 and 2019 highs.

If it goes down, 110.95, 110.60 and 110.25 are all expected to provide support.

(Daily chart of USD/JPY)

At GMT+8 16:38, the USD/JPY traded at 111.37.