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On July 22, Japans imports surged 25.4% year-on-year in June, reaching a record 11.3 trillion yen (approximately US$69.25 billion), driven by a weaker yen and soaring oil prices. This increase exceeded market expectations of 21% and was the fastest pace since November 2022, resulting in a trade deficit of 406.9 billion yen (approximately US$2.49 billion) in June, far exceeding the previously predicted 120 billion yen. While crude oil imports declined by 13.7% year-on-year, the import value surged by 59.3%, with yen-denominated unit prices also reaching a record high, highlighting that current inflationary pressures are largely driven by exchange rate factors rather than demand growth. This means that the yens appreciation has a more significant effect on alleviating import cost pressures than potential short-term changes in oil demand. On the export side, the resilience of demand from data centers related to artificial intelligence provides the Bank of Japan with real economic growth support that can be used to offset inflationary risks. This combination of factors suggests that the Bank of Japan is more likely to adopt a cautious, gradual interest rate hike path rather than a sudden and sharp tightening of policy. The market currently expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged next week, but will maintain its tightening policy stance.Malaysias Deputy Finance Minister: If crude oil prices are $90 per barrel, the monthly subsidy program for 95-octane gasoline will be RM2 billion, and the diesel subsidy will be RM1.5 billion.July 22 – According to the Fujian Provincial Bureau of Statistics, based on the unified accounting results for regional GDP, the provinces GDP in the first half of the year reached 2,931.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% at constant prices. Specifically, the added value of the primary industry was 125.979 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; the added value of the secondary industry was 1,247.608 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 1,557.995 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1%.Mitsubishi Electric and Sony Semiconductor Solutions have formed a joint venture to focus on artificial intelligence vision sensors for industrial manufacturing.July 22 – This morning (July 22), the State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, accelerate the modernization of customs, and contribute to the construction of a strong trading nation. Ports are gateways to the outside world. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, customs will accelerate the implementation of key border port projects under the national 15th Five-Year Plan, simultaneously implement the 57 port facility renovation projects under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and speed up the construction of railway ports such as Turugart and Ganqimaodu. This will help further optimize the layout of port opening.

The AUD/JPY Rebounds to Near 93.00 Ahead of the RBA's Monetary Policy Statement

Daniel Rogers

May 06, 2022 10:01

The AUD/JPY pair has recovered significantly following strong bids near 92.30. The risk barometer fell precipitously earlier this month in the aftermath of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) surprise rate hike on May 3.

 

RBA Governor Philip Lowe announced a 25 basis point (bps) rate raise to 0.35 percent, exceeding the initial prediction of 15 bps. The higher-than-expected rate hike was prompted by Australia's increasing inflation. Previously, the Australian Bureau of Statistics announced annual inflation in Australia at 5.1 percent, far higher than forecasts of 4.6 percent and the prior print of 3.5 percent. Price pressures have compelled the RBA to adopt a hawkish tone and include a rate hike in its policy statement. Investors will now be watching for the issuance of the RBA's monetary policy statement (MPS), which will detail the rationale for the rate hike decision. Additionally, it will provide an update on the present state of crucial economic indicators.

 

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is underperforming following the conclusion of its pullback season. Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ultra-loose monetary policy will continue to torment yen bulls. The BOJ is projected to provide additional assistance in the future, as the Japanese economy has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 2.5 percent, far higher than the 1.9 percent expected and the 1.3 percent prior reading. This may compel the BOJ to adopt a more neutral tone.

AUD/JPY

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